scholarly journals Gas markets – a bridge too far?

2019 ◽  
Vol 59 (2) ◽  
pp. 520
Author(s):  
Graeme Bethune ◽  
Rick Wilkinson
Keyword(s):  
East Coast ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Market Potential ◽  
Energy Market ◽  
Supply Contracts ◽  
Sourcing Strategies ◽  
New Energy ◽  
Gas Markets ◽  
Gas Market ◽  
Gas Supply

The energy market is becoming more globalised and renewables are changing the supply and demand balance. Gas has been suggested as the bridging fuel to the new energy world – but is it a bridge too far? This presentation examines the global gas context and its impact on the Australian east coast gas markets, trends in energy supply options and sign posts for new directions. When the first liquefied natural gas (LNG) train started on Curtis Island, the gas producers had access to more than just the domestic market. The new overseas markets are also interconnected, so the Henry Hub, Brent oil and Chinese gas demand all have an influence on Australia’s east coast gas market. Potential LNG import terminals and net back pricing are changing the domestic gas market. The energy market is moving to renewables. This is not just an anomaly that will correct itself, but is based on lower renewable costs and distribution challenges. Moving relatively small amounts of energy long distances is a major challenge for Australia. Infrastructure, market hubs and sourcing strategies need to compensate for these challenges, and investment is needed to keep pace with the changes. Capital is a global commodity seeking the optimum return for the risk, but unconventionals, such as coal seam gas, are capital hungry. Government policies and support can be the key determinant for not only new investment but sustaining investment to meet existing gas supply contracts. Smart gas buyers will need to be agile and use deeper portfolio approaches for gas supply.

Pricing prospects for global LNG and Australian gas markets

2014 ◽  
Vol 54 (2) ◽  
pp. 490
Author(s):  
Fiona Poynter
Keyword(s):  
East Coast ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Supply Contracts ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
The Us ◽  
Gas Markets ◽  
Gas Market ◽  
Market Needs ◽  
Index Formulas

Global LNG pricing outlook Liquidity in the global LNG spot market is increasing and the industry is seeking price diversification in its supply contracts. The rationale for oil linkage is being challenged. Short-term trade now accounts for a quarter of the total market, and the US’ Henry Hub, the UK’s NBP, and global LNG spot indices are all used in LNG price indexation. Growth in LNG supplies, short-term trade, and operational flexibility will drive global price connectivity and increase transparency. The US will begin exporting LNG, tightening the price differential between Atlantic and Pacific basins. The LNG industry will continue to question the validity of oil-price linkage as it seeks a reliable reference capable of reflecting supply and demand fundamentals in the gas markets themselves. It is, however, important to recognise that gas-to-gas pricing will not automatically deliver cheaper LNG than equivalent oil-index formulas. East coast Australia gas pricing outlook Dynamics in Australian east coast gas markets are changing rapidly, with LNG at the heart of this revolution. The east coast gas industry seeks a deeper, more liquid and transparent market, while looking to international gas hubs for lessons in boosting market efficiency. The industry must address challenges such as gas storage and pipeline capacity if it is to have the flexibility needed to build a vibrant market. Oil-indexed LNG netback pricing is starting to work its way into east coast gas supply contracts; however, as the European gas industry moves away from oil indexation, Australia’s domestic gas market needs to look at alternative pricing structures.

A reserves driven view of the eastern Australian gas supply and demand balance through the 2020's

2017 ◽  
Vol 57 (2) ◽  
pp. 526
Author(s):  
Will Pulsford
Keyword(s):  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
South Australia ◽  
Market Outcomes ◽  
Natural Gas Markets ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Gas Market ◽  
Gas Fields ◽  
Key Participants ◽  
Gas Supply

The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) issued a Gas Statement of Opportunities in March 2016, which reports that gas supply to the domestic and liquefied natural gas markets in eastern Australia will be largely satisfied by proved and probable reserves until 2026 and by the addition of contingent resources until 2030. However, in parallel, there are widely reported concerns by energy consumers of insufficient gas supplies to meet demand by the early 2020s and a lack of new gas supplies to replace existing expiring contracts. Gas shortages have already contributed to black outs and load shedding events in South Australia. This paper reviews the eastern Australian gas supply position at a basin level. The AEMO basin level supply forecasts are reviewed and adjusted to generate forward profiles, which are consistent with reported reserves levels, production histories and depletion behaviour of typical gas fields. The revised supply forecast is compared with the AEMO’s demand profiles, and the likely commercial behaviour of key participants in the market is considered to build a picture of the domestic gas supply-demand balance through the 2020s. This analysis provides a transparent link from market outcomes back to the underlying reserves classifications to guide interpretation of supply-demand forecasts, and highlights the critical role of key suppliers in the eastern Australian gas market in the coming decade.

Meeting demand in a new era of east coast gas supply

2019 ◽  
Vol 59 (2) ◽  
pp. 686
Author(s):  
Will Pulsford
Keyword(s):  
East Coast ◽  
New Era ◽  
Demand Growth ◽  
Historical View ◽  
Operational Life ◽  
Gas Market ◽  
The Government ◽  
Gas Fields ◽  
Project Life ◽  
Gas Supply

Historically LNG projects have been established to monetise large gas finds in remote areas with little existing gas demand. The development of gas supply to the LNG project generally stimulated demand growth in the domestic gas market. As the supplying fields depleted, the LNG projects faced competition with domestic producers for declining gas supplies, but this was late in the project life when LNG plant capital had already been recovered. Recently, LNG export projects have been established within existing mature gas markets, most notably in Australia and North America. These plants now face competition with domestic gas consumers for access to feed gas from the beginning of their operational life when strong revenue has the greatest impact on the return earned on capital invested, with the greatest stress felt in Australia. This paper considers the underlying causes of domestic price rises experienced in Australia following the start-up of LNG export supplied from gas fields linked to the domestic market and the response by both plant developers/operators and the government. This historical view is used to inform forecasts of how the east coast gas market will react to the interplay between domestic and LNG plant demand, declining Bass Strait production, maturing CSG operations, LNG imports and completion of the Northern Gas Pipeline. In particular the ability of gas supply and pipeline capacity to meet the strongly seasonal domestic demand in Victoria and to a lesser extent NSW will be examined, together with the linkage to counter-cyclical seasonal demand for LNG from the Queensland LNG export plants in the key north Asian markets.

Gas Market Developments in Western Europe

1988 ◽  
Vol 6 (4-5) ◽  
pp. 342-360 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter R. Odell
Keyword(s):  
Soviet Union ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Energy Market ◽  
Coal Gas ◽  
The Soviet Union ◽  
Gas Markets ◽  
Gas Market

Prospects for the European gas markets are excellent because North Sea reserves are extensive, the distance to markets small and the latent domestic demand to replace uneconomic coal gas. Nevertheless, expansion in the gas trade has been modest because the industry has not been sufficiently assertive to dispel misconceptions about the adequecy of supply and to deal with pressures from competing energy interests. Increasing rivalry between suppliers can only lead to greater sales effort and the creation of demand, particularly for non-traditional end-users. Expansion of European gas markets could be drastically increased through greater efforts by the Soviet Union to export. This could only happen with price competitiveness that would significantly expand gas markets. There is every reason to expect that the natural gas share of the European energy market would continue to grow until it was the single most important component of western Europe's supply of energy.

Evolution of the east coast gas market

2018 ◽  
Vol 58 (2) ◽  
pp. 513
Author(s):  
Philip Byrne
Keyword(s):  
East Coast ◽  
Regulatory Frameworks ◽  
The Us ◽  
Major Transition ◽  
Gas Market ◽  
Gas Fields ◽  
Eastern Seaboard ◽  
Gas Supply ◽  
Australian Industry

This extended abstract reviews how the east coast gas market is managing the major transition from being a ring-fenced domestic market to being part of an interconnected global trading market, and what still needs to be done to rebalance after half a decade of disruption. The east coast gas market has a great future ahead of it, but only if Australia acts quickly to open up access to new gas supply sources as existing gas fields mature and decline. The presence of a global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply market on the east coast now provides an incentive for gas producers to invest in new provinces and new plays at a scale the domestic gas market could not have supported on its own. This can only be good for competition in the east coast gas market over the medium to long term, and potentially open up enormous supplies for the growth of Australian industry, akin to the US shale gas revolution. To make the most of the resources and infrastructure we now have on the eastern seaboard, there is a role for governments to play in ensuring access to resources and providing stable, coordinated, robust energy policy and regulatory frameworks that attract investment in further growth in the gas sector, the benefits of which will flow on to Australian industry more generally.

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF UKRAINE'S FINANCIAL COOPERATION WITH THE IMF ON THE REFORMATION OF THE ENERGY MARKET AND PRICE POLICY IN THE FIELD OF GAS SUPPLY

10.23856/3004 ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 30 (5) ◽  
pp. 52-59
Author(s):  
Iryna Vasylchuk ◽  
Iryna Yegorova ◽  
Natalia Suzdal
Keyword(s):  
Price Policy ◽  
Energy Market ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Financial Cooperation ◽  
The Reformation ◽  
Gas Market ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The International Monetary Fund ◽  
Gas Supply

The research identifies necessity to implement the requirements established by the International Monetary Fund, as the need for a new tranche from the fund may lead to the implementation of uneffective policy in the gas market of Ukraine. The current competitive environment in the gas market of Ukraine has been analyzed. The article estimates the expediency of increasing gas prices in Ukraine to the market level and the possible effects of such solution for the retail customers. The comparison of the price environment on the markets of the European Union and the domestic market is carried out. Authors determine forecasted volume of the country's capacities in the gas industry and offer possible ways for the future development of the gas industry of Ukraine.

scholarly journals The V4’s Gas Market transition towards the EU’s Energy Security

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 207-218
Author(s):  
Katarína Sárvári
Keyword(s):  
Energy Security ◽  
Market Transition ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Spot Markets ◽  
Supply Contracts ◽  
Gas Market ◽  
Returns On Investment ◽  
Gas Supply ◽  
The Eu

Current development of the European gas market uncovers several new opportunities and challenges for energy security that developed from big changes in production, transit and supply ways of natural gas to Europe. New European gas market model builds on the principles of diversification, the security of supply, interconnectivity and liberalization. Realization of the EU Third Energy Package related to a progressive shift from long-term oil-linked gas supply contracts and development of alternative gas supply sources and lines, as well as the rivalry between already established gas transit lines and the new supply lines present new challenges and require transition for the V4 countries. In this article I studied what are the new changes and challenges of the transition of V4 countries towards the EU’s energy security? To adjust to transition V4 countries should build the new infrastructure on the short-term pricing market and the ways how it will be funded. If V4 countries want to trade gas with the neighbours and transport most of the Russian gas to Europe, they need to invest into reforms of pipelines’ networks or to find other alternatives of diversification in the next decades. Returns on investment on a liberalized market with a multitude of competitors will be manageable but require serious reforms. The V4 countries will have to enter into the spot markets to efficiently trade gas. Available gas hubs in Europe are much smaller, less liquid, and mostly supplied by the same companies as the long-term traded gas hubs. This kind of markets is easy to manipulate. Therefore, it is important for the V4 countries to plan how to coordinate their national energy policies and name EU’s energy targets for the future.

An overview of the new Geological and Bioregional Assessments Program

2018 ◽  
Vol 58 (2) ◽  
pp. 625 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony Swirepik ◽  
Andrew Stacey ◽  
Rod Dann
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Impacts ◽  
East Coast ◽  
Tight Gas ◽  
Environmentally Sustainable ◽  
New Energy ◽  
Exploration And Production ◽  
Building Community ◽  
Three Stages ◽  
Gas Market ◽  
Cooper Basin

As part of the AU$86.3 million ‘Towards a New Energy Future’ package, the Australian Government has committed AU$30.4 million to undertake the Geological and Bioregional Assessments Program. This program aims to encourage sustainable gas development through a series independent scientific studies into the potential environmental impacts of shale and tight gas exploration and production. These studies, conducted by Geoscience Australia and CSIRO, supported by the Bureau of Meteorology and managed by the Department of the Environment and Energy, will focus on three basins (regions) that are prospective, but underexplored for shale and tight gas. The program seeks to encourage exploration to bring new gas resources to the East Coast Gas Market within the next 5–10 years, increase the understanding of the potential environmental impacts posed by gas developments and increase the efficiency of assessment, monitoring and ongoing regulation, including improved data capture and reporting. The Cooper Basin and the Isa Superbasin have been selected for investigation with a third basin expected to be announced by mid-2018. The program will be delivered in three stages over 4 years and will investigate areas prospective for shale and tight gas within these regions. This independent, transparent, science-based approach aims to assist in building community understanding of, and confidence in, the capacity for safe and environmentally sustainable unconventional gas developments.

The east coast gas market explained: analysis of the gas market supply and demand dynamics

2018 ◽  
Vol 58 (1) ◽  
pp. 11
Author(s):  
Joshua Stabler
Keyword(s):  
Structural Change ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Government Policy ◽  
Electricity Market ◽  
East Coast ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Market Transition ◽  
Liquefied Natural Gas ◽  
Economic Consideration ◽  
Gas Market

The Australian east coast gas market is experiencing arguably the most disruptive structural change since its inception, with the completion of the 25.4 mtpa Curtis Island Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) facilities and the introduction of a fourth pillar to the market for domestic gas. However, this disruption was not in isolation and coincided with substitutional interactions with the electricity market already dealing with transition. This report develops context for the natural gas market, establishes the four major avenues of markets and then investigates eight fundamental supply and demand dynamics that are influencing the market in an interconnected fashion. The report concludes that all participants of the gas market must address the multiple dynamic drivers including economic consideration, government policy and regulatory engagement to avoid disorderly market transition.

Australia's unconventional future: where next?

2019 ◽  
Vol 59 (2) ◽  
pp. 654
Author(s):  
Christopher Meredith
Keyword(s):  
East Coast ◽  
Gas Production ◽  
Eastern Coast ◽  
Market Demand ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Future Supply ◽  
Rapid Transition ◽  
Gas Market ◽  
Gas Supply

Eastern Australia is now reliant on coal-seam gas (CSG) for its domestic gas supply; in 2018, it accounted for two-thirds of total eastern coast gas production. Australia has seen a rapid transition from relying on ‘conventional’ resources to relying on ‘unconventional’ gas supply. As legacy conventional supply sources mature and decline, exploration has been insufficient to keep up with market demand. This has created the opportunity for Australia’s vast CSG resources to fill the gap. But the development of CSG has been neither easy nor straightforward. And the costly requirement to drill hundreds, if not thousands, of wells in every single development has driven up the cost of supply. Most CSG reserves will be produced for the Pacific Basin LNG market via the three LNG projects on the east coast of Queensland. However, it is the resources beyond these LNG projects that will need to be developed, so as to ensure future supply to the east coast gas market. It is these other resources, both CSG and shale, that we evaluated to gain a picture of future gas supplies and costs. Our indicative economics showed that alternative CSG resources and Beetaloo shale both have high well-head break-even costs. In addition, the infrastructure required to get them to market will be expensive. The high costs, coupled with the demand from the LNG plants of Gladstone leads us to conclude that eastern-coast gas prices are likely to remain closely linked to global LNG prices for the foreseeable future.

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