Project overruns: why are we still getting it wrong?
The issue of poor project performance in the oil and gas industry is not new. It has been discussed since the 1980s and, over the past 30 years, there has been considerable effort put into improving project outcomes. As an industry, we have invested heavily in project management and estimating processes to ensure that reliable data are available for investment decisions. However, recent experience in Australia and elsewhere in the world suggests that little real improvement has been made. This presentation critically examines aspects of project performance and decision making by analysing: the commercial impact that recent cost and schedule outcomes have had on Australian projects; common problems associated with setting and managing cost and schedule expectations throughout the project development process; real (anonymous) examples from projects to indicate how biases affect behaviours, decisions and outcomes; and simple ways to build a more realistic assessment of risk and uncertainty into cost and schedule estimates. We conclude by discussing why this is still important for future Australian projects given the days of complex greenfield megaprojects are likely behind us.