Probabilistic resource/cost appraisals for evaluation of petroleum resources

2015 ◽  
Vol 55 (2) ◽  
pp. 451
Author(s):  
Donald Gautier ◽  
Peter McCabe
Keyword(s):  
Energy Policy ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Global Marketplace ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Unconventional Resources ◽  
Petroleum Resources ◽  
Resource Cost ◽  
Coal Seam Methane ◽  
Traditional Assessments ◽  
Alternative Resource

In the increasingly open global marketplace, unconventional resources such as coal seam methane, shale gas and shale oil are now the marginal (highest cost) sources of supply in some regions and are seen as potential important components of energy policy for many nations, including Australia. Large in-place hydrocarbon volumes, low-recovery efficiency, and slim profit margins characterise the development of most of these resources around the world. Although they contribute a relatively small percentage of global petroleum production, they greatly influence world commodity prices and pose challenges to developers, investors and policy makers. Traditional assessments of in-place or technically recoverable hydrocarbon volumes alone are inadequate for evaluating the economic viability of these unconventional resources. By integrating probabilistic geology-based assessments with estimates of undiscounted life-cycle capital and operating expenditures, however, single parameter resource assessments become two-parameter resource cost appraisals, which can be used to: benchmark alternative oil or gas technologies; quantify the effects of technological change on high-cost developments; and, compare alternative resource development opportunities. The integration of geological and technological information thus provides an important tool for the effective evaluation of potential projects and for setting energy policy.

Implications of shocks in energy consumption for energy policy in sub-Saharan Africa

2019 ◽  
Vol 31 (6) ◽  
pp. 1077-1097 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oluwasola E Omoju ◽  
Jinkai Li ◽  
Jin Zhang ◽  
Abdul Rauf ◽  
Victor Edem Sosoo
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Energy Policy ◽  
Socioeconomic Development ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Lm Tests ◽  
Lm Test ◽  
Sub Saharan

Sub-Saharan Africa has the lowest energy consumption per capita in the world, and this has undermined socioeconomic development in the region. The stationarity of energy consumption in the region has important implications for energy policy, forecasting and macroeconomic developments. This paper investigates the stationarity properties of energy consumption in 48 sub-Saharan Africa countries using the Augment Dickey–Fuller, Zivot–Andrews, Clemente–Montanes–Reyes and Lee–Strazicich LM tests. Using the Lee-Strazicich LM test as a benchmark, the study shows that energy consumption is stationary in 41 countries. This implies that energy policy makers should not be concerned about shocks in energy consumption in these countries because the shocks will be temporary and not transmitted to the macroeconomy. Also, energy policies will not have long-term effects. Policies that exert one-time temporary shocks on energy consumption would be more effective in these countries.

scholarly journals Consistency Dilemma of Korean Energy Policy

1989 ◽  
Vol 4 (0) ◽  
pp. 44-59
Author(s):  
Dalgon Lee
Keyword(s):  
Energy Policy ◽  
Policy Maker ◽  
Policy Process ◽  
Energy Sector ◽  
Economic Planning ◽  
Energy Market ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Changing Environments ◽  
Long Range Planning ◽  
High Level

This paper examines the continuity of Korean energy policy for the last 30 years and consistency of energy policy with other energy-related policies. Because energy policy environment is characterized by high level of uncertainty, long-range planning as well as skillful adaptation to changing environments are both needed. But there are costs the two different approaches must pay. Energy sector has its close connections with economic and environmental sectors. Energy policy-maker should find ways to minimize any conflict between related policies. Economic planning must be designed awaring of the constraints energy sector faces, and energy sector planning inevitably affects environmental quality. And priority among related policy areas must be adjusted according to changing situations. This paper calls policy-makers' attention to consistent policy process in the midst of favorable international energy market and emergence of green movement.

scholarly journals Global vs Sectoral Factors and the Impact of the Financialization in Commodity Price Changes

2020 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 859-879
Author(s):  
Pilar Poncela ◽  
Eva Senra ◽  
Lya Paola Sierra
Keyword(s):  
Developing Economies ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Commodity Markets ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Economic Agents ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Predictive Content

Abstract Commodity prices influence price levels of a broad range of goods and, in the case of some developing economies, production and export activity. Therefore, information about future commodity inflation is useful for central banks, forward-looking policy-makers, and economic agents whose decisions depend on their expectations about it. After 2004, we have witnessed the so-called financialization of the commodity markets, which might induce greater communalities among commodity prices. This paper reports evidence on the relevance of the forecasting content of co-movement after 2004. With the use of large and small scale factor models we find that for the short run, in addition to dynamics, sectoral communality has relevant predictive content. For 12 months ahead, dynamics lose relevance while communality remains relevant.

Widening the Options

2018 ◽  
pp. 411-432
Author(s):  
Richard Newfarmer ◽  
John Page ◽  
Finn Tarp
Keyword(s):  
Structural Change ◽  
Technological Change ◽  
Structural Transformation ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Industrialized Countries ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Global Marketplace ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Will Force

Structural change is taking place in Africa at a pace and with a pattern distinct from the historical experience of today’s industrialized countries. These differences reflect technological change, a changing global marketplace interacting with policy, a rapidly growing labour force and natural endowments. Some African countries, perhaps with coastal locations, will be able to transform their economic structures through manufacturing. However, it would be surprising if the successful African economy of the future closely followed the export-oriented manufacturing-led path that characterized East Asia’s structural transformation. Africa’s growing economies are likely to have economic structures that contain high value-added agriculture, agro-industry and tradable services in addition to a more robust manufacturing base. Global realities will force Africa’s policy makers to think of ways to promote structural transformation into activities beyond manufacturing.

The opportunity cost of intrastate violence and the out-of-sample validity of commodity price shocks

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 309-324
Author(s):  
Spencer Dorsey
Keyword(s):  
Opportunity Cost ◽  
Academic Research ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Science Literature ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Aggregated Data ◽  
Commodity Price Shocks ◽  
Out Of Sample

Recent work in economics and political science has identified a positive correlation between commodity prices and violence—which are theoretically linked through an opportunity cost mechanism. The findings have important implications for the academic understanding of violence and for policy makers working to anticipate and prevent it. Despite the importance of the findings, they are based on in-sample validation and aggressively aggregated data. There is a growing understanding, both within this literature and in the broader social science literature, that out-of-sample validation should be considered essential before any policy recommendations are made based on academic research. I find that while coffee price shocks are still correlated with intrastate violence in a higher resolution test (district-month), they fail to be useful out-of-sample. These results should prompt a reevaluation of scholarly work based on the relationship between commodity prices and violence and of any policies that have been crafted based on it.

scholarly journals À propos du contrôle social de la politique énergétique

2005 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 713-736
Author(s):  
Louis Constans
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Energy Policy ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Freedom Of Choice ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Parliamentary Debates ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Time Frames ◽  
Made In

This paper attempts to clarify the basic issues underlying the discussion of citizens' participation in public decision-making on energy policy and projects. It questions the assumption that such participation is possible, and recalls that energy policy is at present, at least in the French context, an area of conflict between government and various interest groups. It warns of possible misunderstandings due to the lack of an agreed definition of participation. Three major points are made in this connection. The first is that the usual instruments of citizens' participation in decision-making (public inquiries, parliamentary debates, etc.) have, for a number of technical and institutional reasons, become largely irrelevant as regards energy matters — as indeed in several other areas of policy. The second is that decision-making on energy policy and projects really allows for very little freedom of choice on the part of decision-makers : such freedom rarely goes beyond the setting of time-frames for the achievement of goals imposed by circumstances. Finally, it is suggested that invocation of the ideals of democracy is unhelpful : what is realistically possible amounts only to a greater openness and objectivity in decision-making processes aimed at giving citizens, not an illusory power to decide themselves or to block decisions by policy-makers, but the capacity to forewarn the latter about public feelings on energy issues.

scholarly journals Inflation Everywhere is a Monetary Phenomenon: An Introductory Note

2006 ◽  
Vol 45 (2) ◽  
pp. 179-183
Author(s):  
Nadeem Ul Haque ◽  
Abdul Qayyum
Keyword(s):  
Resource Allocation ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Relative Price ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Poor ◽  
Support Price ◽  
Optimal Resource ◽  
The Rich ◽  
The Government ◽  
Development Resource

Ever since the 1970s, when inflation became a virtually global phenomenon, controlling inflation has become a high priority for policy-makers. Given the well-known costs of inflation, policy now in all countries is inflation-averse. Perhaps one of the more important adverse consequences of inflation may be that high and persistent inflation is a regressive tax1 which adversely impacts the poor.2 The poor are extremely limited in their options to protect themselves against inflation; they are normally asset-poor, while most of their saving is in the form of cash. Inflation erodes cash savings and protects the rich who hold real assets.3 It is not surprising that inflation may be politically costly for the government. Studies have also found that high and volatile inflation has been detrimental to growth and financial sector development. Resource allocation is inhibited as inflation obscures relative price changes and thus inhibits optimal resource allocation. For policy to control inflation, it is important to understand the factors that drive inflation. Unquestionably, empirical evidence points to “inflation being always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon” [Friedman (1963)]. However, there still remains some debate on whether supply-side factors could cause inflation without monetary accommodation.4 The structuralist school of thought holds that supply constraints that drive up prices of specific goods can have wider repercussions on the overall price level. Similarly, there are a number of possible sources of rising costs such as wages, profits, imported inflation-exchange rate, commodity prices, external shocks, exhaustion of natural resources, and taxes. For example, in Pakistan, increases in the wheat support price have frequently been blamed for increasing inflation.5 ........

scholarly journals Manufacturing Sector and Economic Growth: A Panel Study of Selected African Countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 114-130
Author(s):  
Clement Moyo ◽  
Leward Jeke
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Panel Study ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Value Added ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
System Gmm ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Determinants Of Economic Growth

Objective – The manufacturing sector plays an important role in any economy. However, Africa has experienced significant deindustrialisation over the last few decades, whilst economic growth has been on an upward trend over the same period. The high growth rates have mostly been propelled by improved macroeconomic stability and the commodity price boom. Further, the slowdown in commodity prices has recently caused a deceleration of economic growth which begs the question: Does promoting the manufacturing sector result in higher and sustainable economic growth and reduce unemployment? This study assesses the impact of the manufacturing sector on economic growth in 37 African countries. Methodology/Technique – This study employs the System-GMM Model for the period between 1990 and 2017. This technique is ideal as the number of cross-sectional units is greater than the number of time periods. This technique also caters for problems of endogeneity and heteroscedasticity. Findings – The results show that manufacturing value has a positive effect on economic growth in African countries. Therefore, it is recommended that policy makers enact measures to boost manufacturing output. Novelty –The deceleration of economic growth in African countries coupled with high unemployment and poverty levels has brought the issue of re-industrialisation into the spotlight. This study is vital for policy makers in African countries who seek to promote economic growth and employment levels. The study contributes to literature in African countries by incorporating variables such as human capital and institutional quality which are major determinants of economic growth. Type of Paper: Empirical. Keywords: Manufacturing Value Added; Economic Growth; African Countries; System-GMM. Reference to this paper should be made as follows: Moyo, C; Jeke, L. 2019. Manufacturing Sector and Economic Growth: A Panel Study of Selected African Countries, J. Bus. Econ. Review 4(3) 114 – 130 https://doi.org/10.35609/jber.2019.4.3(1) JEL Classification: C23, E23, O14, O40.

Productivity and Efficiency of Banking Sector in Nepal

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (ii) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kishor Hakuduwal
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Human Resource ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Joint Venture ◽  
Stochastic Frontier ◽  
Stochastic Frontier Approach ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Systematic Random Sampling ◽  
Resource Cost ◽  
Input Variables

The paper aims to analyze the productivity and efficiency of banking sector in Nepal. Using systematic random sampling, 20 banks including both commercial and development are selected. The 180 observations of nine year’s panel data from FY 2006/07 to FY 2014/15 has been used. Stochastic Frontier Approach is used taking three input variables i.e. capital, deposit and human resource cost, and one output variable i.e. loans and advance of sampled banks for analysis. The study found that the productivity of human resource, deposit and capital is significant. The joint venture banks are the most efficient than private and Government owned banks. The commercial banks are more efficient than development banks. The study has important implications for the policy makers to take corrective actions for improving the productivity and efficiency of banking sector in Nepal. Keywords: Productivity, Efficiency, Stochastic Frontier approach, Panel data, Banking sector

scholarly journals The Contradictions between District and Individual Heating towards Green Deal Targets

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 3370
Author(s):  
Lauma Balode ◽  
Kristiāna Dolge ◽  
Dagnija Blumberga
Keyword(s):  
Energy Policy ◽  
Sustainability Assessment ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
District Heating ◽  
Blind Spot ◽  
Heat Pumps ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Four Dimensions ◽  
The Road ◽  
Blind Spots

The blind spot can be defined as the area around the vehicle where the driver cannot see through the mirrors without turning their head or taking their eyes off the road. Similar blind spots occur in energy policy. Blind spots can occur in forecasting economic development and creating policy documents. This study uncovers potential blind spots and controversies in the sustainability assessment of energy supply technologies. A composite sustainability index was constructed to compare district heating with four individual heating technologies—wood pellet boilers, natural gas boilers, solar collectors, and heat pumps. A total of 19 indicators were selected and grouped into four dimensions of sustainability—technical, environmental, economic, and social. The results reveal that district heating can compete with individual heating technologies in all dimensions of sustainability; however, a possible blind spot lies in evaluating environmental performance indicators of the different heating technologies. This study provides a novel decision-making tool that policy-makers could use to identify and avoid potential blind spots and uncertainties in energy policy at an early stage.

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