Oil and gas investment decision making—what's at risk?

2012 ◽  
Vol 52 (2) ◽  
pp. 679
Author(s):  
Nick Chipman ◽  
Rob Gray
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Shareholder Wealth ◽  
Human Interaction ◽  
Decision Quality ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Risk Appetite

When considering oil and gas developments in Australia, it is worthwhile to consider what's at risk. This extended abstract considers oil and gas investment decision-making from a first-principles basis, introducing case studies and learnings from past projects. Additionally, investment decisions can examined from the following perspectives: Setting the mould—decisions crystalise risk; therefore, decision quality is paramount. How do investment decisions serve as expression of corporate risk appetite? What is observable at the time versus what may lay silent? Too big to fail—can the organisation withstand the risk profile of its chosen investment slate? Is the owner or joint-venture structure sufficiently resilient to undertake the set of activities in question (e.g. deep-water drilling or LNG project developments)? Management charge—leadership and management motivations may drive projects into risky territory; are the appropriate feedback mechanisms in place? Dealing with complexity—project execution plans, layers and sub-contracting require formal and informal communication and governance to ensure successful delivery. Has complexity been dealt with? Or does structure mask hidden risk? Addressing human factors—human interaction and project organisational structures may drive perverse outcomes. What allowance and process reviews and assures against human motivation and influence? This extended abstract frames investment decision-making and project execution using practical examples, and shows how investment-decision quality is a primary driver of shareholder wealth creation. This has implications for the stage-gate capital processes, governance structures, and investment review practices presently in place in the industry.

scholarly journals Impact of Heuristics on Investment Decisions: The Moderating Role of Locus of Control

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Jeetendra Dangol ◽  
Rashmita Manandhar
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Locus Of Control ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Sampling Procedure ◽  
Moderating Effect ◽  
Moderation Effect ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Overconfidence Bias ◽  
The Impact

This paper aims to assess the impact of heuristics on the investment decision by analysing the effect of four heuristic biases, i.e., representativeness, availability, anchoring and adjustment, and overconfidence bias on rationality of Nepalese investor's investment decision-making and also examines the moderating effect of the internal locus of control in between. The study used 391 respondents based on a convenient sampling procedure, and structured questionnaire survey. The study result indicates that there is a significant relationship between irrationality in investment decision-making and all four heuristic biases. In addition, the study also concludes that locus of control has significant moderating effect in the relationship between investment decisions and three heuristic biases, i.e., availability, representative and anchoring bias. However, the study documents no moderation effect in case of relationship with overconfidence bias.

scholarly journals Pengaruh Financial Literacy, Representativeness Bias, Dan Bias Optimisme Terhadap Pengambilan Keputusan Investasi

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 2976-2991
Author(s):  
Silvia Putri ◽  
Halmawati Halmawati
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Financial Literacy ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
State University ◽  
Investment Decision Making

This study aims to analyze 1) whether there is an influence of financial literacy on investment decision maknig. 2) Obtain empirical evidence whether there is an Representativeness bias making on investment decisions. 3) Does Bias optimisme affect investment decision making. In this study using Causality Design. Population and sampek are 104 respondents registered in the Indonesia Stock Exchange Investment Gallery (GIBEI) Faculty of Economics, State University of Padang. The method of analysis is multiple linear regression. The results of the study found 1) Financial literacy influences investment decisions on investment decision making.2) Optimum bias affects investment decisions on investment decision making. 3) Representativness influences investment decisions on investment decision making. 4) Together financial literacy variables, the optimum bias and representativness together influence the investment decision on investment decision making

scholarly journals ASSESSMENT OF THE ROLE OF ACCOUNTING INFORMATION ON EFFECTIVE INVESTMENT DECISION - THE CASE OF BANQUE POPULAIRE DU RWANDA ATLASMARA

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
James Hodari
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Data Collection ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Accounting Information ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Target Population ◽  
Staff Members ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Secondary Methods

The purpose of this study is to assess the role of accounting information on effective investment decisions at Banque Populaire du Rwanda Atlasmara. The target population was 50 staff members. The study used a primary method that involved questionnaires. Secondary methods of data collection involved a desk review of relevant materials. Data collection was then analyzed by using SPSS software. The study indicated a significant correlation between accounting information and investment decisions and all rely on information for an investment decision. It was seen from the analysis of responses, 83% argued always use accounting information for investment. It was revealed that the quality of accounting information in terms of its accuracy, adequacy, reliability, and mode of disclosure is a pertinent element of efficiency of investment decision making. The study recommends that commercial banks should use accounting always to increase the accuracy of their investment decision-making. The study recommends that Banque Populaire du Rwanda should consult the accounting information before making investment decisions and all interested parties to accounting information should use necessary financial ratios analysis for an investment decision. The study concludes that there is a significant correlation between accounting information and investment decision. JEL: M10; M41; R42 <p> </p><p><strong> Article visualizations:</strong></p><p><img src="/-counters-/edu_01/0845/a.php" alt="Hit counter" /></p>

Role of personal values in investment decisions

2016 ◽  
Vol 39 (8) ◽  
pp. 940-964 ◽  
Author(s):  
Otuo Serebour Agyemang ◽  
Abraham Ansong
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Corporate Governance ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Personal Values ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Recent Emergence ◽  
Decision Making Processes

Purpose This paper aims to examine the role personal values play in investment decision-making processes among Ghanaian shareholders. Design/methodology/approach In consequence of the recent emergence of the issue of corporate governance practices in Ghana, and the kind of the research objective of this paper, a mix of qualitative and quantitative methods was used. These methods were used in two stages. The first stage was qualitative, which purposively selected 20 individual shareholders to solicit their perspectives on how personal values influence investment decisions. Their responses were used to construct the content of this enquiry. The second stage, which was quantitative, used stratified sampling technique to select 503 individual shareholders to confirm the responses obtained from stage one of the enquiry. Findings The findings of the study reveal that individual shareholders in Ghana hold value priorities and that honesty, a comfortable life and family security play a significant role in their lives and their investment decision-making processes, and the kind of companies they choose to invest in. Also, to Ghanaian individual shareholders, there is a clear distinction between a comfortable life and a prosperous life in the sense that they are not incentivized more by the latter but by the former in their investment decisions. Practical implications The results can inform corporate directors and managers what values are considered in investment decisions, and that it is not purely financial. With these results, they can be informed that while some financial values are important, it is just to live a comfortable life and not a prosperous life. This may influence these directors and managers to have a more long-run focus and to have more of a corporate social responsibility (CSR) focus by putting implementable measures in place to tackle corporate responsibility issues and to take up a responsibility for their CSR feat. Also, the results can be used for public policy in that if regulators find out that more CSR-type information is important to investors, they might require additional CSR-type disclosures in financial statements. Originality/value This paper contributes to the knowledge on the stakeholder perspective of corporate governance that individual shareholders’ personal values have influence on their investment decisions and the choice of companies they invest in.

Analyzing Manufacturer’s R&D Equilibrium in Defense Procurement

2011 ◽  
Vol 474-476 ◽  
pp. 1435-1439
Author(s):  
Sheng Li Chen ◽  
Xiao Dong Liu
Keyword(s):  
Game Theory ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Defense Procurement ◽  
Contest Theory ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Admission Criterion ◽  
The Government ◽  
D Investment

We formulate the model of R&D investment scale adjustment of defense procurement by applying game theory and contest theory and study the equilibrium of manufacturers’ R&D investment decision-making in defense procurement. We explore mainly the influence of valuation of monopolistic contract and differences among manufacturers’ abilities on investment. The conclusion shows that manufacturers’ investment equilibrium of R&D projects is what the government expects under certain conditions, however, manufacturers’ abilities effect on the investment equilibrium and makes it deviate from the government expectation. Therefore, the government must keep practically manufacturers’ anticipation about the monopolistic contact being consistent with government’s and set basic admission criterion to enable manufactures’ ability well-matched to induce the manufacturers’ investment decisions to the investment equilibrium that it desired.

Decision-making of investment in navigation safety improving schemes with application of cumulative prospect theory

2018 ◽  
Vol 232 (6) ◽  
pp. 710-724 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lei Wang ◽  
Qing Liu ◽  
Tongle Yin
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Cumulative Prospect Theory ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Risk Appetite ◽  
Safety Investment ◽  
Navigation Safety

Navigation safety improving investment aims at mitigating risk and improving safety of shipping system, while decision-makers’ attitudes toward the uncertainty of shipping safety possess a characteristic of “bounded rationality.” To study the tendency of shipping safety investment decision-making with different risk perception and appetite, a decision-making method based on cumulative prospect theory is proposed in this article. First, we extract the decision attributes through analyzing the factors affecting shipping safety investment. Then, according to cumulative prospect theory, the value function and the probability weighting function for calculating cumulative prospect values of shipping investment attributes are given. Under the risk-based multi-attribute group decision-making framework, linear programming model and projection method are introduced to aggregate the weights of attributes and decision-makers, respectively. Furthermore, through a case study, the proposed methodology is utilized in Three Gorges Dam area, and the desirable safety investment scheme is determined from a set of candidate alternatives. The case study shows not only validity and feasibility of the decision-making approach but also the mechanism of shipping safety investment decision-making with consideration of the behavior characteristics of decision-makers such as reference dependence, risk appetite distortion, and loss aversion.

Effect of Disposition Effect on Investment Decision Making in Property Market in Plateau State, Nigeria

2019 ◽  
pp. 83-98
Author(s):  
Dashol Ishaya Usman ◽  
Mary Pam
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Behavioral Finance ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Financial Decisions ◽  
Descriptive Research ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Plateau State

The purpose of the chapter was to establish the effect of disposition on investment decision making in property market in Plateau State, Nigeria. Descriptive research design was used in the study. Primary data was collected using standard questionnaires with both closed and open-ended questions. The regression analysis results confirmed that there was a significant positive linear relationship between disposition and investor investment decision making in property market in Plateau State in Nigeria. The study concluded that disposition effects bias does not alter rationality in investment decision making. Disposition affected investment decisions. The main recommendation for investors is to make constant attempts to increase their awareness on behavioral finance by educating themselves on the field. Studying about the biases and reflecting on their decisions are likely to help achieve better self-understanding of the extent and manner to which they are influenced by emotions while making financial decisions under uncertainty.

scholarly journals An Analysis of Behavioral Biases in Investment Decision-Making

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geetika Madaan ◽  
Sanjeet Singh
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Individual Investors ◽  
Behavioral Biases ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Survey Responses ◽  
The Impact

Individual investor’s behavior is extensively influenced by various biases that highlighted in the growing discipline of behavior finance. Therefore, this study is also one of another effort to assess the impact of behavioral biases in investment decision-making in National Stock Exchange. A questionnaire is designed and through survey responses collected from 243 investors. The present research has applied inferential statistics and descriptive statistics. In the existing study, four behavioral biases have been reviewed namely, overconfidence, anchoring, disposition effect and herding behavior. The results show that overconfidence and herding bias have significant positive impact on investment decision. Overall results conclude that individual investors have limited knowledge and more prone towards making psychological errors. The findings of the study also indicate the existence of these four behavioral biases on individual investment decisions. This study will be helpful to financial intermediaries to advice their clients. Further, study can be elaborated to study other behavioral biases on investment decisions.

Evaluation of behavioral biases affecting investment decision making of individual equity investors by fuzzy analytic hierarchy process

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 297-314 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinesh Jain ◽  
Nidhi Walia ◽  
Sanjay Gupta
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Behavioral Finance ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Behavioral Biases ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Overconfidence Bias ◽  
Hierarchy Process

Purpose Research in the area of behavioral finance has demonstrated that investors exhibit irrational behavior while making investment decisions. Investor behavior usually deviates from logic and reason, and consequently, investors exhibit various behavioral biases which impact their investment decisions. The purpose of this paper is to rank the behavioral biases influencing the investment decision making of individual equity investors from the state of Punjab, India. This research would provide valuable insight into the different behavioral biases to investors and other participants of the capital market and help them in improving investment decisions. Design/methodology/approach The research is conducted on the individual equity investors of Punjab, India. Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process was applied to rank the factors influencing the decision making of individual equity investors of Punjab. The primary factors considered for the study are overconfidence bias, representative bias, anchoring bias, availability bias, regret aversion bias, loss aversion bias, mental accounting bias and herding bias. Findings The three most influential criteria were herding bias, loss aversion bias and overconfidence bias. The five most influential sub-criteria were “I readily sell shares that have increased in value (C61),” “News about the company (Newspapers, TV and magazines) affects my investment decision (C84),” “I invest each element of my investment portfolio separately (C71)” and “I usually hold loosing stock for long time, expecting trend reversal (C52).” Research limitations/implications Although sample survey conducted in the present study was based on a limited sample selected from a particular area that truly represented the total population, it is considered as the limitation of this study. Practical implications The outcome of this research provides investors with a better understanding of behavioral biases that influence their decision making. This study provides them a guideline on different behavioral biases that they should consider while making investment decisions. Originality/value The research model is based on the available literature on behavioral finance and the research results and findings would add value to the existing knowledge base.

Challenging investment decision-making in pension funds

2019 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Carl-Christian Trönnberg ◽  
Sven Hemlin
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Critical Incident ◽  
Pension Fund ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Pension Funds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Intuitive Thinking ◽  
Investment Decision Making

PurposeThe purpose of this study was to gain a better understanding of pension fund managers investment thinking when confronted with challenging investment decisions. The study focuses on the theoretical question of how dual thinking processes in experts’ investment decision-making emerge. This question has attracted interest in economic psychology but has not yet been answered. Here, it is explored in the context of pension funds.Design/methodology/approachThe sample included 22 pension fund managers. The authors explored their decision-making by applying the critical incident interview technique, which entailed collecting investment decisions that fund managers retrieved from recent memory (Flanagan, 1954). Questions concerned the investment situation, the decision-making process and the challenges and uncertainties the fund managers faced.FindingsMany of the 61 critical incidents examined concerned challenging (mostly stock) investments based on extensive analysis (e.g. reliance on external analysts for advice; analysis of massive amounts of hard company and stock market information; scrutiny of company reports and personal meetings with CEOs). However, fund managers to a high degree based their decisions on soft information judgments such as experience and qualitative judgements of teams. The authors found heuristics, intuitive thinking, biases (sunk cost effects) and social influences in investment decision-making.Research limitations/implicationsThe sample is small and not randomly selected.Practical implicationsThe authors suggest anti-bias training and better acquaintance with human forecasting limitations for pension fund managers.Originality/valuePension fund managers’ investment thinking has not previously been investigated. The authors show the types of investment situations in which analytical and intuitive thinking and biases occur.

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