Can the simple clinical score usefully predict the mortality risk and length of stay for a recently admitted patient?

2015 ◽  
Vol 39 (5) ◽  
pp. 522
Author(s):  
Minh T. Nguyen ◽  
Richard J. Woodman ◽  
Paul Hakendorf ◽  
Campbell H. Thompson ◽  
Jeff Faunt
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Department ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Length Of Stay ◽  
General Medicine ◽  
Clinical Score ◽  
Accurate Method ◽  
Hospital Length ◽  
Hospital Length Of Stay ◽  
Emergency Department Care ◽  
Logistic Regression Models

Objectives The aim of the present study was to determine whether an aggregate simple clinical score (SCS) has a role in predicting the imminent mortality and in-hospital length of stay (LOS) of newly admitted, acutely unwell General Medical in-patients. Methods Data were collected prospectively from adult patients admitted through an Acute Medical Unit between February and August 2013. Using logistic regression analysis before and after adjustment for age, the SCS was assessed for its association with LOS and mortality, including 30-day mortality, just for those patients for full resuscitation. Changes in sensitivity and specificity after adding SCS to age as a predictor, as well as the change in the net reclassification index, were determined using the predicted probabilities from the logistic regression models. Results The SCS was superior to age in predicting mortality of any patient within 30 days. It did not assist in predicting 30-day mortality for those patients who were for full resuscitation. The ability of the SCS to predict long stay (>72 h) remained relatively low (64%) and was inferior to published rates achieved by bedside clinician assessment (74%–82%). Conclusion There was no useful prospective role for the SCS in predicting LOS and mortality of in-patients newly admitted to a General Medicine service. What is known about the topic? After their presentation to the emergency department, care efficiency is improved by the ‘streaming’ of patients according to their risk of imminent deterioration and their likelihood of being a long-stay patient. Although streaming is currently effected by bedside assessment of the patient, an accepted aggregate assessment score may assist disposition decisions. What does this paper add? Bedside assessment of each patient still offers the most accurate method for identifying the long-stay patient. The SCS, good at predicting 30-day mortality of all new admissions, is not useful for predicting the death of those admissions who are for full resuscitation. What are the implications for practitioners? When deciding admitted patients’ disposition on leaving the emergency department, a simple aggregate score based on patient physiology, comorbidity and functionality has little to offer practitioners beyond knowledge of each patient’s age.

scholarly journals Geospatial Distribution and Predictors of Mortality in Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19: A Cohort Study

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
S K Mallipattu ◽  
R Jawa ◽  
R Moffitt ◽  
J Hajagos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Acute Kidney Injury ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Cohort Study ◽  
Length Of Stay ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Kidney Injury ◽  
Hospital Length ◽  
Hospitalized Patients ◽  
Hospital Length Of Stay ◽  
Logistic Regression Models

Abstract Background The global coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic offers the opportunity to assess how hospitals manage the care of hospitalized patients with varying demographics and clinical presentations. The goal of this study was to demonstrate the impact of densely populated residential areas on hospitalization and to identify predictors of length of stay and mortality in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in one of the hardest hit counties internationally. Methods This was a single-center cohort study of 1325 sequentially hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in New York between March 2, 2020, to May 11, 2020. Geospatial distribution of study patients’ residences relative to population density in the region were mapped, and data analysis included hospital length of stay, need and duration of invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV), and mortality. Logistic regression models were constructed to predict discharge dispositions in the remaining active study patients. Results The median age of the study cohort (interquartile range [IQR]) was 62 (49–75) years, and more than half were male (57%) with history of hypertension (60%), obesity (41%), and diabetes (42%). Geographic residence of the study patients was disproportionately associated with areas of higher population density (rs = 0.235; P = .004), with noted “hot spots” in the region. Study patients were predominantly hypertensive (MAP > 90 mmHg; 670, 51%) on presentation with lymphopenia (590, 55%), hyponatremia (411, 31%), and kidney dysfunction (estimated glomerular filtration rate < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2; 381, 29%). Of the patients with a disposition (1188/1325), 15% (182/1188) required IMV and 21% (250/1188) developed acute kidney injury. In patients on IMV, the median (IQR) hospital length of stay in survivors (22 [16.5–29.5] days) was significantly longer than that of nonsurvivors (15 [10–23.75] days), but this was not due to prolonged time on the ventilator. The overall mortality in all hospitalized patients was 15%, and in patients receiving IMV it was 48%, which is predicted to minimally rise from 48% to 49% based on logistic regression models constructed to project disposition in the remaining patients on ventilators. Acute kidney injury during hospitalization (odds ratioE, 3.23) was the strongest predictor of mortality in patients requiring IMV. Conclusions This is the first study to collectively utilize the demographics, clinical characteristics, and hospital course of COVID-19 patients to identify predictors of poor outcomes that can be used for resource allocation in future waves of the pandemic.

scholarly journals Association of Emergency Department Waiting Times With Patient Experience in Admitted and Discharged Patients

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. 237437352110114
Author(s):  
Andrew Nyce ◽  
Snehal Gandhi ◽  
Brian Freeze ◽  
Joshua Bosire ◽  
Terry Ricca ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Department ◽  
Length Of Stay ◽  
Patient Experience ◽  
Waiting Times ◽  
Hospital Length ◽  
Short Length ◽  
Hospital Length Of Stay ◽  
Patient’S Experience ◽  
Discharged Patients ◽  
The Impact

Prolonged waiting times are associated with worse patient experience in patients discharged from the emergency department (ED). However, it is unclear which component of the waiting times is most impactful to the patient experience and the impact on hospitalized patients. We performed a retrospective analysis of ED patients between July 2018 and March 30, 2020. In all, 3278 patients were included: 1477 patients were discharged from the ED, and 1680 were admitted. Discharged patients had a longer door-to-first provider and door-to-doctor time, but a shorter doctor-to-disposition, disposition-to-departure, and total ED time when compared to admitted patients. Some, but not all, components of waiting times were significantly higher in patients with suboptimal experience (<100th percentile). Prolonged door-to-doctor time was significantly associated with worse patient experience in discharged patients and in patients with hospital length of stay ≤4 days. Prolonged ED waiting times were significantly associated with worse patient experience in patients who were discharged from the ED and in inpatients with short length of stay. Door-to-doctor time seems to have the highest impact on the patient’s experience of these 2 groups.

scholarly journals Risk factors on admission associated with hospital length of stay in patients with COVID-19: a retrospective cohort study

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anping Guo ◽  
Jin Lu ◽  
Haizhu Tan ◽  
Zejian Kuang ◽  
Ying Luo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Liver Disease ◽  
Length Of Stay ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Logistic Regression Model ◽  
Hospital Length ◽  
Clinical Treatment ◽  
Hospital Length Of Stay ◽  
Female Sex

AbstractTreating patients with COVID-19 is expensive, thus it is essential to identify factors on admission associated with hospital length of stay (LOS) and provide a risk assessment for clinical treatment. To address this, we conduct a retrospective study, which involved patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 infection in Hefei, China and being discharged between January 20 2020 and March 16 2020. Demographic information, clinical treatment, and laboratory data for the participants were extracted from medical records. A prolonged LOS was defined as equal to or greater than the median length of hospitable stay. The median LOS for the 75 patients was 17 days (IQR 13–22). We used univariable and multivariable logistic regressions to explore the risk factors associated with a prolonged hospital LOS. Adjusted odds ratios (aORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated. The median age of the 75 patients was 47 years. Approximately 75% of the patients had mild or general disease. The univariate logistic regression model showed that female sex and having a fever on admission were significantly associated with longer duration of hospitalization. The multivariate logistic regression model enhances these associations. Odds of a prolonged LOS were associated with male sex (aOR 0.19, 95% CI 0.05–0.63, p = 0.01), having fever on admission (aOR 8.27, 95% CI 1.47–72.16, p = 0.028) and pre-existing chronic kidney or liver disease (aOR 13.73 95% CI 1.95–145.4, p = 0.015) as well as each 1-unit increase in creatinine level (aOR 0.94, 95% CI 0.9–0.98, p = 0.007). We also found that a prolonged LOS was associated with increased creatinine levels in patients with chronic kidney or liver disease (p < 0.001). In conclusion, female sex, fever, chronic kidney or liver disease before admission and increasing creatinine levels were associated with prolonged LOS in patients with COVID-19.

scholarly journals Predictive factors for prolonged hospitalisation in acute pyelonephritis patients admitted to the emergency medicine ward

2021 ◽  
pp. 102490792110009
Author(s):  
Howard Tat Chun Chan ◽  
Ling Yan Leung ◽  
Alex Kwok Keung Law ◽  
Chi Hung Cheng ◽  
Colin A Graham
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Department ◽  
Emergency Medicine ◽  
Length Of Stay ◽  
Acute Pyelonephritis ◽  
Hospital Length ◽  
Hospital Length Of Stay ◽  
Prolonged Length ◽  
Reactive Protein ◽  
Prolonged Hospital ◽  
Emergency Medicine Ward

Background: Acute pyelonephritis is a bacterial infection of the upper urinary tract. Patients can be admitted to a variety of wards for treatment. However, at the Prince of Wales Hospital in Hong Kong, they are managed initially in the emergency medicine ward. The aim of the study is to identify the risk factors that are associated with a prolonged hospital length of stay. Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study conducted in Prince of Wales Hospital. The study recruited patients who were admitted to the emergency medicine ward between 1 January 2014 and 31 December 2017. These patients presented with clinical features of pyelonephritis, received antibiotic treatment and had a discharge diagnosis of pyelonephritis. The length of stay was measured and any length of stay over 72 h was considered to be prolonged. Results: There were 271 patients admitted to the emergency medicine ward, and 118 (44%) had a prolonged hospital length of stay. Univariate and multivariate analyses showed that the only statistically significant predictor of prolonged length of stay was a raised C-reactive protein (odds ratio 1.01; 95% confidence 1.01–1.02; p < 0.0001). Out of 271 patients, 261 received antibiotics in the emergency department. All 10 patients (8.5%) who did not receive antibiotics in emergency department had a prolonged length of stay (p = 0.0002). Conclusion: In this series of acute pyelonephritis treated in the emergency medicine ward, raised C-reactive protein levels were predictive for prolonged length of stay. Patients who did not receive antibiotics in the emergency department prior to emergency medicine ward admission had prolonged length of stay.

Disagreement between emergency department admission diagnosis and hospital discharge diagnosis: mortality and morbidity

Diagnosis ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Eames ◽  
Arie Eisenman ◽  
Richard J. Schuster
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Department ◽  
Length Of Stay ◽  
Medical Center ◽  
Hospital Length ◽  
Hospital Length Of Stay ◽  
Admission Diagnosis ◽  
Mortality And Morbidity ◽  
Emergency Department Admission ◽  
Icu Length Of Stay ◽  
Discordant Group

AbstractPrevious studies have shown that changes in diagnoses from admission to discharge are associated with poorer outcomes. The aim of this study was to investigate how diagnostic discordance affects patient outcomes.: The first three digits of ICD-9-CM codes at admission and discharge were compared for concordance. The study involved 6281 patients admitted to the Western Galilee Medical Center, Naharyia, Israel from the emergency department (ED) between 01 November 2012 and 21 January 2013. Concordant and discordant diagnoses were compared in terms of, length of stay, number of transfers, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, readmission, and mortality.: Discordant diagnoses was associated with increases in patient mortality rate (5.1% vs. 1.5%; RR 3.35, 95% CI 2.43, 4.62; p<0.001), the number of ICU admissions (6.7% vs. 2.7%; RR 2.58, 95% CI 2.07, 3.32; p<0.001), hospital length of stay (3.8 vs. 2.5 days; difference 1.3 days, 95% CI 1.2, 1.4; p<0.001), ICU length of stay (5.2 vs. 3.8 days; difference 1.4 days, 95% CI 1.0, 1.9; p<0.001), and 30 days readmission (14.11% vs. 12.38%; RR 1.14, 95% CI 1.00, 1.30; p=0.0418). ED length of stay was also greater for the discordant group (3.0 vs. 2.9 h; difference 8.8 min; 95% CI 0.1, 0.2; p<0.001): These findings indicate discordant admission and discharge diagnoses are associated with increases in morbidity and mortality. Further research should identify modifiable causes of discordance.

scholarly journals Incidence of delirium in the Canadian emergency department and its consequences on hospital length of stay: a prospective observational multicentre cohort study

BMJ Open ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. e018190 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcel Émond ◽  
Valérie Boucher ◽  
Pierre-Hugues Carmichael ◽  
Philippe Voyer ◽  
Mathieu Pelletier ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Emergency Department ◽  
Cohort Study ◽  
Length Of Stay ◽  
Hospital Length ◽  
Cognitive Status ◽  
Hospital Ward ◽  
Hospital Length Of Stay ◽  
Multicentre Cohort Study ◽  
Multicentre Cohort

ObjectiveWe aim to determine the incidence of delirium and describe its impacts on hospital length of stay (LOS) among non-delirious community-dwelling older adults with an 8-hour exposure to the emergency department (ED) environment.DesignThis is a prospective observational multicentre cohort study (March–July 2015). Patients were assessed two times per day during their entire ED stay and up to 24 hours on hospital ward.SettingThe study took place in four Canadian EDs.Participants338 included patients: (1) aged ≥65 years; (2) who had an ED stay ≥8 hours; (3) were admitted to hospital ward and (4) were independent/semi-independent.Main outcome(s) and measure(s)The primary outcomes of this study were incident delirium in the ED or within 24 hours of ward admission and ED and hospital LOS. Functional and cognitive status were assessed using validated Older Americans Resources and Services and the modified Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status tools. The Confusion Assessment Method was used to detect incident delirium. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to evaluate outcomes.ResultsMean age was 76.8 (±8.1), 17.7% were aged >85 years old and 48.8% were men. The mean incidence of delirium was 12.1% (n=41). Median IQR ED LOS was 32.4 (24.5–47.9) hours and hospital LOS was 146.6 (75.2–267.8) hours. Adjusted mean hospital LOS was increased by 105.4 hours (4.4 days) (95% CI 25.1 to 162.0, P<0.001) for patients who developed an episode of delirium compared with non-delirious patient.ConclusionsAn incident delirium was observed in one of eight independent/semi-independent older adults after an 8-hour ED exposure. An episode of delirium increases hospital LOS by 4 days and therefore has important implications for patients and could contribute to ED overcrowding through a deleterious feedback loop.

scholarly journals Implementation of a Physician Incentivized QI Strategy to Address Time to Parenteral Analgesia in Patients with Voe in the Pediatric Emergency Department

Blood ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 138 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 2989-2989
Author(s):  
Romy Shane ◽  
Sanjay J. Shah ◽  
Blake Bulloch ◽  
Anita Bharath
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Department ◽  
Length Of Stay ◽  
Hospital Length ◽  
Hospital Length Of Stay ◽  
Post Intervention ◽  
Opioid Administration ◽  
Ed Visits ◽  
Mean Time ◽  
Timely Administration ◽  
Order Set

Abstract Introduction Vaso-occlusive episodes (VOE) are the most common cause of pediatric Emergency Department (ED) visits and hospitalizations in Sickle Cell Disease (SCD). The National Heart Lung and Blood Institute published an Expert Panel Report regarding the management of SCD and VOE. Their consensus statement recommends initiating analgesic therapy within 30 minutes of triage or within 60 minutes of registration in the Emergency Department. Previous studies have demonstrated that earlier maximum opioid has been associated with shorter length of hospitalization and improved time to ED disposition decision. Despite the overwhelming evidence for timely administration of parenteral analgesic, significant delays still exist in delivery of pain medication in the pediatric SCD population. Barriers to timely administration include rapid triage of SCD patients, provider ordering of pain medication, and peripheral intravenous access. Therefore, a standardized approach to pain management may improve ED management of SCD crises. In order to address timely administration of opiates to SCD patients with VOE episodes in our pediatric ED a SCD pain order set was developed. This order set implemented the use of intranasal (IN) fentanyl as a first line analgesic for SCD patients who presents to the ED with VOE. The purpose of this study was addressing barriers to decrease time to parenteral opioid administration in the pediatric ED. Methods This Quality Improvement (QI) measure was performed at a free-standing, urban pediatric ED. Patients were included if they had a diagnosis of SCD and presented with a pain score &gt;5 and without fever. A PDSA cycle was utilized for designing and evaluating the proposed changes. This cycle consisted of three intervention phases: (1) electronic medical record (EMR) order set development in October 2019, (2) provider incentive for order set use in January 2020, and (3) nursing/patient & family education in April 2020. Baseline data was collected pre-intervention from April-September 2019. The outcomes measures were mean time to 1 st analgesic, mean time from triage to disposition, Hospital Length of Stay, and overall admission rates. Our balancing measure included 48 hour ED re-visits after discharge. Results There were 67 ED visits from April-September 2019 (pre-intervention) and 104 ED visits in the post-intervention data from October-June 2020. There was no significant difference in age or initial pain score in the pre- and post- intervention groups. Improvements were seen in: mean time to first analgesic (58 to 26 minutes), time to disposition (271 to 213 minutes). Hospital length of stay was found to increase with the introduction of IN fentanyl: pre-intervention (120 hours), phase 1 (148 hours), phase 2 (152 hours), phase 3 (218 hours). However, the overall admission rate decreased (55% to 44%). The number of 48-hour ED re-visits remained stable. Conclusion By using QI methods to address key barriers in the pediatric ED, we demonstrated that timely administration of parenteral analgesic can be achieved for SCD patients with VOE. Utilizing the EMR order set allowed for more stream-lined care, both by physicians and nursing staff, resulting in more rapid ordering of medication therefore decreasing time to ED disposition. Additional interventions such as provider incentivization to meet the goal of parenteral opioids within 30 minutes of patient arrival led to further improvement. One of the greatest barriers to our QI intervention was hesitancy both by patients and their caregivers regarding the efficacy of IN fentanyl in decreasing pain compared to IV opioid. Further education was needed both for families and medical staff regarding the efficacy of IN fentanyl as a first line analgesic. It is unclear why overall hospital length of stay was not shown to be decreased with these interventions but this can be offset by an overall decrease in hospital admissions seen with our interventions. This data may be limited by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and how psychosocial stressors can impact patients with chronic medical conditions. Length of stay is also confounded by other factors during the hospitalization and acquisition of other diagnoses such as acute chest. Future research is needed to determine if the demonstrated trend of admission rates and hospital length of stay can be replicated in other pediatric EDs and whether earlier opioid administration affects the outcome of VOEs beyond the ED. Figure 1 Figure 1. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

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