scholarly journals Projecting subacute inpatient activity in New South Wales

2009 ◽  
Vol 33 (4) ◽  
pp. 601 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Gibbs ◽  
James E Pearse ◽  
Neill Jones ◽  
Jennifer A Sheehan ◽  
Kathleen T Meleady ◽  
...  

We describe the development of a method for estimating and modelling future demand for sub- and non-acute inpatient activity across New South Wales, Australia to 2016. A time series linear regression equation was used, which is consistent with projection models found in the literature. Results of the modelling indicated an increase in rehabilitation, palliative care and maintenance episodes and bed-days. Projections for other categories of care are problematic due to smaller levels of activity and data quality issues. This project indicated a need for ongoing monitoring of type-changing by facilities and management of data quality. Local planners will need to consider a range of factors when considering the applicability activity projections at a local level, particularly within the specific age and clinical groupings.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Holger Möller ◽  
Hassan Assareh ◽  
Joanne M. Stubbs ◽  
Bin Jalaludin ◽  
Helen M. Achat

1982 ◽  
Vol 33 (6) ◽  
pp. 945 ◽  
Author(s):  
IG Eliot ◽  
DJ Clarke

A 5-year set of profile data from Warilla Beach, N.S.W., measured fortnightly, has been statistically analysed by using Fourier transform, least-squares, and empirical orthogonal function (eigenfunction or EOF) techniques to identify characteristic patterns of temporal and spatial variation in the sediment volume of the subaerial beach. Least-squares analysis enabled separation of the variation in the subaerial beach at Warilla into a 5-year trend, periodic fluctuations and aperiodic events. The periodic fluctuations are dominated by biennial and annual components. The biennial component accounts for 40% of the sediment budget of the subaerial beach, the annual component 30%, 13% is due to the long-term trend over the 5 years, and about 20% is estimated as aperiodic fluctuations mainly related to changes in the wave regime. Phase differences were identified for periodic oscillations on adjacent beach segments and a chronology of change in sediment volume deduced from the phase differences. The results show that variation in the sediment volume of the subaerial beach is determined by interaction between the biennial and seasonal exchanges although the resulting pattern of exchange may be obscured by higher-frequency beach changes. In alternate years the focus of onshore-offshore sediment exchange shifts from the centre of the beach to the exposed, northern sector. The major depositional zone associated with this exchange is located on the southern+entral sector of the beach and the major erosion zone is on the northern part of the beach. The pattern of alongshore sediment exchange was more closely investigated by EOF analysis. The method facilitated separation of onshore-offshore and alongshore modes of sediment transfer and identification of the patterns of alongshore sediment exchange. The first four EOF's for the data on the subaerial beach at Warilla contain 95.3% of the total variance. The fundamental pattern of sediment movement identified in the EOF analysis involves an onshore-offshore transfer of sediment in biennial, seasonal and 6-monthly cycles. The transfer accounts for 61.7% of the variance for the sediment store of the subaerial beach. The amplitude spectrum of the associated time series for this eigenfunction mode shows that the biennial component is dominant. This result supports the results from the least-squares analysis. It could not have been anticipated from previous studies of beach change from New South Wales or elsewhere and is the subject of ongoing investigation. Subsequent eigenfunction modes identify alongshore movements, with three patterns accounting for a further 33.8% of the remaining variance. They are associated with the prevailing system of inshore water circulation and identify major, recurrent rip and bar locations. Time series associated with the eigenfunction modes confirm the dominance of biennial, annual, and biannual sediment transfers occurring on Warilla Beach.


1997 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 26 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kathy Eagar ◽  
David Cromwell

In 1994 the New South Wales Casemix Area Network initiated a study to developa classification and funding model for sub-acute and non-acute care. Thirty-fiverehabilitation, geriatric, psychogeriatric and palliative care services were recruited intothe study throughout eight area health services. The aim of the first phase, summarisedhere, was to capture and analyse a sufficiently large quantity of data to select thosevariables most likely to predict resource utilisation, for subsequent use in a detailedcosting study.It is known that acute care diagnosis related groups are not predictive of costs in sub-acutecare. This phase of the project confirmed that, in New South Wales, the mostpredictive variables were case type, functional status measures, impairment type forrehabilitation, phase for palliative care and severity of symptoms for palliative care.The resultant Phase 1 casemix classification, which has built on recent United Statesexperience and studies in other Australian States, has been termed the New SouthWales Sub-Acute and Non-Acute Patient (SNAP) Version 1 classification.


2008 ◽  
Vol 32 (3) ◽  
pp. 528 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neill Jones ◽  
Greg Hardes ◽  
Stephen Ryan ◽  
Jennifer Sheehan ◽  
Cathryn Cox ◽  
...  

Objectives: To describe the statewide projections of acute inpatient activity in New South Wales. Methods: Data on acute inpatient activity in NSW for the period 1998?1999 to 2003?04 were derived from the Admitted Patient Data Collection. Regression analysis was used to project trends in utilisation and length of stay by age group, clinical specialty groups and stay type (day-only and overnight). The projected separation rates and length of stay were subject to clinical review. Projected separation rates (by age group, clinical speciality and stay type) were applied to NSW population projections to derive the projected number of separations. Bed-days were calculated by applying projected overnight average length of stay. Results: Total acute inpatient activity in NSW public hospitals is projected to increase from around 1.05 million separations in 2004 to around 1.3 million separations by 2017 (24%). Same-day separations are projected to increase from around 368 000 to around 514 000 (40%). Overnight separations are projected to rise from around 690 000 in 2003?04 to around 798 000 in 2016?17 (18%). Overnight bed-days are projected to increase from around 3.7 million in 2003?04 to around 4.1 million bed-days in 2017 (12%). Differences across age groups and clinical specialties are also evident from the modelling.


2017 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 126-133 ◽  
Author(s):  
Suzanne Rainsford ◽  
Nicholas J. Glasgow ◽  
Rod D. MacLeod ◽  
Teresa Neeman ◽  
Christine B. Phillips ◽  
...  

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