scholarly journals Transition Challenges for Alternative Fuel Vehicle and Transportation Systems

2008 ◽  
Vol 35 (6) ◽  
pp. 1070-1097 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeroen Struben ◽  
John D Sterman
Keyword(s):  
Internal Combustion Engines ◽  
Word Of Mouth ◽  
Alternative Fuel ◽  
Learning By Doing ◽  
Transportation Systems ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Critical Threshold ◽  
Alternative Fuel Vehicles ◽  
Positive Feedbacks ◽  
Complementary Resources

Automakers are now developing alternatives to internal combustion engines (ICE), including hydrogen fuel cells and ICE-electric hybrids. Adoption dynamics for alternative vehicles are complex, owing to the size and importance of the auto industry and vehicle installed base. Diffusion of alternative vehicles is both enabled and constrained by powerful positive feedbacks arising from scale and scope economies, research and development, learning by doing, driver experience, word of mouth, and complementary resources such as fueling infrastructure. We describe a dynamic model of the diffusion of and competition among alternative fuel vehicles, including coevolution of the fleet technology, behavior, and complementary resources. Here we focus on the generation of consumer awareness of alternatives through feedback from consumers' experience, word of mouth, and marketing, with a reduced-form treatment of network effects and other positive feedbacks (which we treat in other papers). We demonstrate the existence of a critical threshold for sustained adoption of alternative technologies, and show how the threshold depends on economic and behavioral parameters. We show that word of mouth from those not driving an alternative vehicle is important in stimulating diffusion. Expanding the model boundary to include learning, technological spillovers, and spatial coevolution of fueling infrastructure adds additional feedbacks that condition the diffusion of alternative vehicles. Results show scenarios for successful diffusion of alternative vehicles, but also suggest that marketing programs and subsidies for alternatives must remain in place for long periods for diffusion to become self-sustaining.

scholarly journals The Subsidized Green Revolution: The Impact of Public Incentives on the Automotive Industry to Promote Alternative Fuel Vehicles (AFVs) in the Period from 2010 to 2018

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (18) ◽  
pp. 5765
Author(s):  
Patrick Reimers
Keyword(s):  
Electric Vehicles ◽  
Automotive Industry ◽  
Internal Combustion Engines ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Alternative Fuel ◽  
Production Costs ◽  
Transport Sector ◽  
Energy Sources ◽  
Alternative Fuel Vehicles ◽  
The Impact

Throughout decades, conflicts related to the access and usage of various energy sources have caused political tensions between nations and confederations of states. Thus, partially to decrease the dependence on fossil fuels, a thorough transition towards renewable energies has been promoted by several regional and national governments as well as by multinational institutions such as the European Union. In this context, the automotive industry has particularly been held responsible for the production of negative externalities, such as global greenhouse gas emissions (GHG emissions), noise and air pollution. To a notable extent, these externalities were caused by vehicles running on fossil fuels such as petroleum products, including gasoline, diesel fuel and fuel oil. Accordingly, it is often argued that replacing vehicles run by internal combustion engines (ICEs) with so-called alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs), particularly with plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), is crucial to increase the sustainability of the transport sector. Moreover, several EU-member states aim to reduce the vehicle-related petrol and diesel demand to decrease their dependence on foreign energy sources. However, one must consider that there are important economic costs related to such a transition process. This paper evaluates the short-term and long-term effects of fiscal policies on the European automotive market in the period from 2010 to 2018, focusing on the impact of mentioned public incentives for AFVs. This public interventionism will be critically evaluated to examine the effectiveness of government incentives in promoting AFVs, particularly for plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs). The author argues that the rather positive sales evolution of AFVs was not caused by corresponding actual customer demand but mainly by governmental policies in an increasingly interventionist market. He acknowledges that the growing variety of available PEV models, the increasing driving range of electric vehicles, as well as their decreasing production costs due to economies of scale, have helped PEVs to become more competitive. However, the concern should be raised that mentioned public interventionism is unsustainable from a macroeconomic perspective, possibly leading to significant market distortion and a new artificial market bubble. The narrowed focus on battery electric vehicles prevents the market from further elaborating on other potentially more sustainable technologies. Moreover, from a geostrategic perspective, the transition of the European automotive industry towards electrification is likely to reduce the EU’s dependency on imported fossil fuels but enables several non-European automotive brands to conquer a significant market with their new competitive plug-in electric vehicle technologies.

Transitions in Light-Duty Vehicle Transportation: Alternative-Fuel and Hybrid Vehicles and Learning

2003 ◽  
Vol 1842 (1) ◽  
pp. 127-134 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul N. Leiby ◽  
Jonathan Rubin
Keyword(s):  
Alternative Fuels ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Fuel Efficiency ◽  
Alternative Fuel ◽  
Hybrid Vehicle ◽  
Learning By Doing ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Alternative Fuel Vehicles ◽  
Production Scale ◽  
Light Duty Vehicle

New vehicle technologies and alternative fuels are believed to be key factors in increasing energy security, improving air quality, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Proposed legislation (Energy Policy Act of 2003) would extend significant tax credits to fuel-cell vehicles and promote hybrid vehicle use through credits toward other federal requirements (i.e., for alternative fuel use). Analyses using single-period equilibrium models and multiple-period scenario analyses are often used to demonstrate the feasibility of technology to attain policy goals. These analyses typically assume mature markets, large-scale vehicle production, and the widespread availability of alternative fuels at retail stations. These conditions are not currently attained and may or may not be realized in a market economy. The Transitional Alternative Fuels and Vehicles model is used to simulate market outcomes for the use and cost of alternative-fuel vehicles (AFVs) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) over a 20-year period, considering possible transitional barriers related to infrastructure needs, production scale, and technological learning. Without subsidies, no substantial penetration by HEVs is projected, based on their prospective fuel efficiency gains and costs. Hybrid subsidies (on the order of $2,000/vehicle) can induce substantial hybrid penetration and gasoline demand displacement under the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s 2001 oil price projections. This result is quantitatively different from that achieved for AFVs. Temporary HEV subsidies are effective at inducing hybrid vehicle penetration but do not have long-term effects once they are removed unless costs are reduced due to learning-by-doing.

The impact of age on Italian consumers' attitude toward alternative fuel vehicles

2018 ◽  
Vol 119 ◽  
pp. 299-308 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kostas Andriosopoulos ◽  
Simona Bigerna ◽  
Carlo Andrea Bollino ◽  
Silvia Micheli
Keyword(s):  
Alternative Fuel ◽  
Alternative Fuel Vehicles ◽  
The Impact

The impact of fuel availability on demand for alternative-fuel vehicles

2012 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 262-269 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Achtnicht ◽  
Georg Bühler ◽  
Claudia Hermeling
Keyword(s):  
Alternative Fuel ◽  
Alternative Fuel Vehicles ◽  
On Demand ◽  
The Impact
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