A Demographic Model for Small Area Population Projections: An Application to the Census Metropolitan Area of Hamilton in Ontario, Canada

2009 ◽  
Vol 41 (4) ◽  
pp. 964-979 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pavlos S Kanaroglou ◽  
Hanna F Maoh ◽  
Bruce Newbold ◽  
Darren M Scott ◽  
Antonio Paez
Keyword(s):  
Metropolitan Area ◽  
Small Area ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Demographic Model ◽  
Census Metropolitan Area

scholarly journals Settlement Patterns of Korean Immigrants in the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (DMA)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Colin Chungshik Kang
Keyword(s):  
Metropolitan Area ◽  
Settlement Patterns ◽  
Korean Immigrants ◽  
Employment Rate ◽  
Ethnic Economy ◽  
Self Employment ◽  
Income Data ◽  
Census Metropolitan Area ◽  
High Level ◽  
Transnational Activities

This paper focuses on settlement patterns of Korean immigrants in the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) highlighting their high self-employment rate and active transnational activities. The objectives for the paper are to explore various causes of a high level of self-employment rate among Korean immigrants, and to examine settlement patterns of Korean immigrants in the Toronto CMA by reviewing their immigration data, employment income and self-employment income data, residential locations, ethnic economy and human capital, and to understand how their active transnational activities combined with the factors listed above affected their settlement and integration experiences in Canada as they are inter-connected with various social and economic fabrics of the Korean community in the Toronto CMA.

scholarly journals O1.3. BACK TO THE FUTURE: PREDICTING POPULATION NEED FOR PSYCHOSIS CARE BASED ON THE EPIDEMIOLOGY OF PSYCHOTIC DISORDERS IN ENGLAND, AN APPLIED BAYESIAN METHODOLOGY

2020 ◽  
Vol 46 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S1-S2
Author(s):  
Keltie McDonald ◽  
Tao Ding ◽  
Rebecca Dliwayo ◽  
David Osborn ◽  
Pia Wohland ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Early Intervention ◽  
Small Area ◽  
Psychotic Disorders ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
First Episode ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
Psychosis Risk ◽  
Small Area Level ◽  
Early Intervention In Psychosis

Abstract Background Providing timely, adequate and appropriately-resourced care to people experiencing their first episode of psychosis needs to be informed by evidence-based models of future need in the population. We sought to develop a validated prediction model of need for provision of early intervention in psychosis [EIP] services at the small area level in England up to 2025, based on current epidemiological evidence and demographic projections of the at-risk population. Methods We developed a Bayesian population-level prediction tool. First, we obtained small area incidence data on first episode psychoses, aged 16–64 years, from three major empirical studies of psychosis risk (ÆSOP, ELFEP and SEPEA). Second, we identified suitable prior information from the published literature on variation in psychosis risk by age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation and cannabis use. Third, we combined this empirical data with prior beliefs in six Bayesian Poisson regression models to obtain a full characterisation of the underlying uncertainty in the form of suitable posterior distributions for the relative risks for different permutations of covariate data. Fourth, model coefficients were applied to population projections for 2017 to predict the expected incidence of psychotic disorders, aggregated to Commissioning Group [CCG] and national levels. Fifth, we compared these predictions to observed national FEP data from the NHS Mental Health Services Data Set in 2017 to establish the most valid model. Sixth, we used the best-fitting model to predict three nested indicators of need for psychosis care: (i) total annual referrals to early intervention in psychosis [EIP] for “suspected” FEP (ii) total annual cases accepted onto EIP service caseloads, and (iii) total annual new cases of probable FEP in England up until 2025, using small area population projections. Results A model with an age-sex interaction, ethnicity, small area-level deprivation, social fragmentation and regional cannabis use provided best internal and apparent validity, predicting 8112 (95% Credible Interval 7623 to 8597) individuals with FEP in England in 2017, compared with 8038 observed cases (difference: n=74; 0.94%). Apparent validity was acceptable at CCG level, and by sex and ethnicity, although we observed greater-than-expected need before 35 years old. Predicted new referrals, caseloads and probable incidences of FEP rose over the forecast period by 6.2% to 25,782, 23,187 and 9,541 new cases in 2025, respectively. Discussion Our translational epidemiological tool provides an accurate, validated method to inform planners, commissioners and providers about future population need for psychosis care at different stages of the referral pathway, based on individual and small area level determinants of need. Such tools can be used to underpin evidence-based decision-making in public mental health and resource allocation in mental health systems.

scholarly journals Spatial Mismatch in the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area : Examining the Commuting Patterns of Immigrants

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liam. Donaldson
Keyword(s):  
Metropolitan Area ◽  
Spatial Mismatch ◽  
Unemployment Rates ◽  
Immigrant Populations ◽  
Cross Tabulation ◽  
Geographic Separation ◽  
Census Metropolitan Area ◽  
Household Incomes ◽  
Commuting Patterns ◽  
Generalized Ordered Logit Model

The spatial mismatch hypothesis argues that the geographic separation between jobs and housing has an adverse effect on the employment outcomes of ethnic minorities. This research paper tests this assumption for immigrant populations in the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area through mapping, cross tabulation and a generalized ordered logit model to determine whether immigrants are at a disadvantage in both the labour market and in terms of commuting distance when compared with Canadian born residents. The results of this study suggest that immigrants are more likely to live over 5 kilometres away from work and that they experience more difficulty in negotiating longer commutes due to higher unemployment rates, lower median household incomes and a greater reliance on transit. In contrast, Canadians are more likely to make daily commutes of over 15 kilometres, however, they are often more capable than immigrants of travelling these increased distances.

scholarly journals EXAMINING URBAN EXPANSION USING MULTI-TEMPORAL LANDSAT IMAGERY: A CASE STUDY OF THE MONTREAL CENSUS METROPOLITAN AREA FROM 1975 TO 2015, CANADA

2016 ◽  
Vol XLI-B8 ◽  
pp. 965-972
Author(s):  
Lingfei Ma ◽  
He Zhao ◽  
Jonathan Li
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Metropolitan Area ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Landsat Imagery ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Growth Patterns ◽  
Urbanization Process ◽  
Continuous Growth ◽  
Census Metropolitan Area

Urban expansion, particularly the movement of residential and commercial land use to sub-urban areas in metropolitan areas, has been considered as a significant signal of regional economic development. In 1970s, the economic centre of Canada moved from Montreal to Toronto. Since some previous research have been focused on the urbanization process in Greater Toronto Area (GTA), it is significant to conduct research in its counterpart. This study evaluates urban expansion process in Montréal census metropolitan area (CMA), Canada, between 1975 and 2015 using satellite images and socio-economic data. Spatial and temporal dynamic information of urbanization process was quantified using Landsat imagery, supervised classification algorithms and the post-classification change detection technique. Accuracy of the Landsat-derived land use classification map ranged from 80% to 97%. The results indicated that continuous growth of built-up areas in the CMA over the study period resulted in a decrease in the area of cultivated land and vegetation. The results showed that urban areas expanded 442 km<sup>2</sup> both along major river systems and lakeshores, as well as expanded from urban centres to surrounded areas. The analysis revealed that urban expansion has been largely driven by population growth and economic development. Consequently, the urban expansion maps produced in this research can assist decision-makers to promote sustainable urban development, and forecast potential changes in urbanization growth patterns.

scholarly journals EXAMINING URBAN EXPANSION USING MULTI-TEMPORAL LANDSAT IMAGERY: A CASE STUDY OF THE MONTREAL CENSUS METROPOLITAN AREA FROM 1975 TO 2015, CANADA

2016 ◽  
Vol XLI-B8 ◽  
pp. 965-972 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lingfei Ma ◽  
He Zhao ◽  
Jonathan Li
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Metropolitan Area ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Landsat Imagery ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Growth Patterns ◽  
Urbanization Process ◽  
Continuous Growth ◽  
Census Metropolitan Area

Urban expansion, particularly the movement of residential and commercial land use to sub-urban areas in metropolitan areas, has been considered as a significant signal of regional economic development. In 1970s, the economic centre of Canada moved from Montreal to Toronto. Since some previous research have been focused on the urbanization process in Greater Toronto Area (GTA), it is significant to conduct research in its counterpart. This study evaluates urban expansion process in Montréal census metropolitan area (CMA), Canada, between 1975 and 2015 using satellite images and socio-economic data. Spatial and temporal dynamic information of urbanization process was quantified using Landsat imagery, supervised classification algorithms and the post-classification change detection technique. Accuracy of the Landsat-derived land use classification map ranged from 80% to 97%. The results indicated that continuous growth of built-up areas in the CMA over the study period resulted in a decrease in the area of cultivated land and vegetation. The results showed that urban areas expanded 442 km&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; both along major river systems and lakeshores, as well as expanded from urban centres to surrounded areas. The analysis revealed that urban expansion has been largely driven by population growth and economic development. Consequently, the urban expansion maps produced in this research can assist decision-makers to promote sustainable urban development, and forecast potential changes in urbanization growth patterns.

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