scholarly journals Shrinking Large-Scale Population-Projection Models by Aggregation and Decomposition

1976 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 515-541 ◽  
Author(s):  
A Rogers

During the past two decades social scientists have come to model dynamic socioeconomic systems of growing size and complexity. Despite a heavy reliance on ever more sophisticated high-speed digital computers, however, computer capacity for handling such systems has not kept pace with the growing demands for more detailed information. Consequently, it is becoming ever more important to identify those aspects of a system which permit one to deal with parts of it independently from the rest or to treat relationships among particular subsystems as though they were independent of the relationships within those subsystems. These questions are, respectively, those of decomposition and aggregation, and their application toward ‘shrinking’ large-scale population projection models is the focus of this paper.

This is the first occasion on which I have had the great honour of addressing the Royal Society on this anniversary of its foundation. According to custom, I begin with brief mention of those whom death has taken from our Fellowship during the past year, and whose memories we honour. Alfred Young (1873-1940), distinguished for his contributions to pure mathematics, was half brother to another of our Fellows, Sydney Young, a chemist of eminence. Alfred Young had an insight into the symbolic structure and manipulation of algebra, which gave him a special place among his mathematical contemporaries. After a successful career at Cambridge he entered the Church, and passed his later years in the country rectory of Birdbrook, Essex. His devotion to mathematics continued, however, throughout his life, and he published a steady stream of work in the branch of algebra which he had invented, and named ‘quantitative substitutional analysis’. He lived to see his methods adopted by Weyl in his quantum mechanics and spectroscopy. He was elected to our Fellowship in 1934. With the death of Miles Walker (1868-1941) the Society loses a pioneer in large-scale electrical engineering. Walker was a man of wide interests. He was trained first for the law, and even followed its practice for a period. Later he studied electrical engineering under Sylvanus Thompson at the Finsbury Technical College and became his assistant for several years. Thereafter, encouraged by Thompson, he entered St John’s College, Cambridge, with a scholarship, and graduated with 1st Class Honours in both the Natural Sciences and the Engineering Tripos. Having entered the service of the British Westinghouse Company, he was sent by them to the United States of America to study electrical engineering with the parent company in Pittsburgh. On his return to England he became their leading designer of high-speed electrical generators


Author(s):  
Diana C. Mutz

Population-based survey experiments have become an invaluable tool for social scientists struggling to generalize laboratory-based results, and for survey researchers besieged by uncertainties about causality. Thanks to technological advances in recent years, experiments can now be administered to random samples of the population to which a theory applies. Yet until now, there was no self-contained resource for social scientists seeking a concise and accessible overview of this methodology, its strengths and weaknesses, and the unique challenges it poses for implementation and analysis. Drawing on examples from across the social sciences, this book covers everything you need to know to plan, implement, and analyze the results of population-based survey experiments. But it is more than just a “how to” manual. This book challenges conventional wisdom about internal and external validity, showing why strong causal claims need not come at the expense of external validity, and how it is now possible to execute experiments remotely using large-scale population samples. Designed for social scientists across the disciplines, the book provides the first complete introduction to this methodology and features a wealth of examples and practical advice.


2018 ◽  
Vol 46 (6) ◽  
pp. 1154-1158
Author(s):  
Max Bergholz

In myriad forms, violence remains a crucial and, arguably, an increasingly dominant form of political practice by a host of actors in the contemporary world. It is thus not surprising that during the past two decades research on various aspects of violence has increased significantly. Historians have long been the central chroniclers of the violent past, but others, especially social scientists, have recently moved into the spotlight with a host of compelling analyses about the origins, dynamics, and effects of violence, including those of riots, pogroms, civil war, and genocide, among others. Today, the story of violent human behavior is one that many scholars seek to tell and explain, and in a host of different ways — from research methodology and scale, to narrative style. Yet regardless of who seeks to tell histories of violence, the question of what drives people to inflict immense pain and large-scale death on others continues to remain a perplexing question in today's world, and thus is one that remains in urgent need of attention from researchers.


2018 ◽  
Vol 41 (1) ◽  
pp. 431-452 ◽  
Author(s):  
Siegfried Weisenburger ◽  
Alipasha Vaziri

The mammalian brain is a densely interconnected network that consists of millions to billions of neurons. Decoding how information is represented and processed by this neural circuitry requires the ability to capture and manipulate the dynamics of large populations at high speed and high resolution over a large area of the brain. Although the use of optical approaches by the neuroscience community has rapidly increased over the past two decades, most microscopy approaches are unable to record the activity of all neurons comprising a functional network across the mammalian brain at relevant temporal and spatial resolutions. In this review, we survey the recent development in optical technologies for Ca2+imaging in this regard and provide an overview of the strengths and limitations of each modality and its potential for scalability. We provide guidance from the perspective of a biological user driven by the typical biological applications and sample conditions. We also discuss the potential for future advances and synergies that could be obtained through hybrid approaches or other modalities.


1997 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 1096-1111 ◽  
Author(s):  
Josh Dewind ◽  
Philip Kasinitz

After three decades of renewed, large-scale immigration to the United States, social scientists are increasingly turning their attention to processes of immigrant incorporation and reexamining the perspectives of social scientists who studied similar processes in the past. This essay reviews the insights and questions raised by the foregoing articles in this special issue of the International Migration Review and assesses their theoretical contributions to understanding relations between immigrants and native-born Americans in contemporary processes of incorporation.


Author(s):  
János Kertész ◽  
János Török ◽  
Yohsuke Murase ◽  
Hang-Hyun Jo ◽  
Kimmo Kaski

The chapter “Multiplex Modeling of Society” discusses aspects of multiplexity in modeling society. Networks of social interactions are paradigmatic examples of multiplexity. It was recognized long ago by social scientists that the best way to interpret the network of different kinds of human relationships is a multiplex network, where each layer corresponds to a particular type of relationship, for example, between kin, friends, or co-workers. Until recently, only small social networks could be studied, due to the limited size of the datasets collected by traditional methods used in sociology. However, over the past 15 years, this situation has changed substantially due to the large scale of human sociality-related datasets becoming increasingly available. This chapter sums up the “stylized facts” obtained from Big Data, shows how Granovetterian structure can be modeled in a multiplex setup, and discusses modeling channel selection to analyze the sampling bias introduced by single-channel data.


Networks of land managed for conservation across different tenures have rapidly increased in number (and popularity) in Australia over the past two decades. These include iconic large-scale initiatives such as Gondwana Link, the Great Eastern Ranges Initiative, Habitat 141°, and the South Australian NatureLinks, as well as other, landscape-scale approaches such as Biosphere Reserves and Conservation Management Networks. Their aims have been multiple: to protect the integrity and resilience of many Australian ecosystems by maintaining and restoring large-scale natural landscapes and ecosystem processes; to lessen the impacts of fragmentation; to increase the connectivity of habitats to provide for species movement and adaptation as climate changes; and to build community support and involvement in conservation. This book draws out lessons from a variety of established and new connectivity conservation initiatives from around Australia, and is complemented by international examples. Chapters are written by leaders in the field of establishing and operating connectivity networks, as well as key ecological and social scientists and experts in governance. Linking Australia's Landscapes will be an important reference for policy makers, natural resource managers, scientists, and academics and tertiary students dealing with issues in landscape-scale conservation, ecology, conservation biology, environmental policy, planning and management, social sciences, regional development, governance and ecosystem services.


2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (6) ◽  
pp. 533-540
Author(s):  
Seockhoon Chung ◽  
Seung Woo Cho ◽  
Min-Woo Jo ◽  
Soyoung Youn ◽  
Jiho Lee ◽  
...  

Objective The aim of this study was to estimate the progress of insomnia prevalence and incidence over the past several years. Also, this study compared survival rates between individuals with and without insomnia.Methods The National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Cohort (NHIS-NSC) from 2002–2013 was used for this study. Prevalent cases of insomnia were defined using ICD-10 codes F51.0 or G47.0, or a prescription of sedatives. Cox’s proportional hazard analysis was conducted to compare survival rates between insomnia patients and people without insomnia.Results In 2013, there were 46,167 (5.78%) insomnia patients over 20 years old in this cohort. Insomnia was more common among women and the elderly. Annual incidence over the past several years remained steady but the prevalence increased. The survival of insomnia patients was lower than that of people without insomnia, and the hazard ratio for overall mortality was 1.702 (p<0.001).Conclusion This large-scale population-based cohort study provided current epidemiologic indicators of insomnia in the Korean general population.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mika Koverola ◽  
Anton Kunnari ◽  
Jukka Reima Ilmari Sundvall ◽  
Michael Laakasuo

Psychometric scales are useful tools in understanding people’s attitudes towards different aspects of life. As societies develop and new technologies arise, new validated scales are needed. Robots and artificial intelligences of various kinds are about to occupy just about every niche in human society. Several tools to measure fears and anxieties about robots do exist, but there is a definite lack of tools to measure hopes and expectations for these new technologies. Here, we cre-ate and validate a novel multi-dimensional scale which measures people’s attitudes towards ro-bots, giving equal weight to positive and negative attitudes. Our scale reliably differentiated a) comfort and enjoyment around robots, b) discomfort and anxiety around robots, c) rational hopes about robots in general and d) rational worries about robots in general. In addition to its psycho-metric qualities our scale is compact (only 20 items), aesthetically pleasing (5 items in each of the four sub-scales) and produces reliably the same factor structure in different samples. In contrast to previous tools our new instrument also allows large-scale population based and intercultural re-search without context dependency. Due to its easy-to-use nature, we hope our scale will be a use-ful instrument for social scientists who wish to study human-technology relations with a validated scale in efficient and generalizable ways.


Prospects ◽  
1980 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 423-437
Author(s):  
Cushing Strout

Histories and novels are old allies, but the alliance is now troubled. The historian C. Vann Woodward told a convention of historians a decade ago that “our kindship is actually much closer to novelists” than to social scientists. Both the novel and history, he pointed out, “sprang from a common parentage of story-telling” and “competed with each other to satisfy the demand for historical understanding.” Over the last two centuries, he maintained, “novelists have been becoming ever more deeply historically conscious.” In the same year in which Woodward's remarks were published another historian, Sigfried Kracauer, struck a different note. The pioneers of the modern novel, Joyce, Proust, and Woolf, he observed, “no longer care to render biographical developments and chronological sequences after the manner of the older novel; on the contrary, they resolutely decompose (fictitious) continuity over time.” Thus modern art has “radically challenged the artistic ideals from which the general historian draws his inspiration—from which he must draw it to establish his genre.” But Kracauer explicitly cautioned against confusing his observations with attempts to “question the faithfulness to reality of the general historian's accounts.” He only drew the conclusion that general, large-scale narrative history as a genre survives only because metaphysical and political interests invite the historian to look at the past “from above” as a whole, instead of looking at it “from below” in the form of analytical specialized histories.


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