scholarly journals Scenario Modelling in Prospective LCA of Transport Systems. Application of Formative Scenario Analysis (11 pp)

2004 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 325-335 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Spielmann ◽  
Roland Scholz ◽  
Olaf Tietje ◽  
Peter de Haan
Keyword(s):  
Scenario Analysis ◽  
Transport Systems ◽  
Scenario Modelling ◽  
Formative Scenario Analysis

scholarly journals Improving risk assessment by defining consistent and reliable system scenarios

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 145-159 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Mazzorana ◽  
J. Hübl ◽  
S. Fuchs
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Sediment Transport ◽  
Scenario Analysis ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Hazard Mapping ◽  
System Response ◽  
Potential System ◽  
Formative Scenario Analysis

Abstract. During the entire procedure of risk assessment for hydrologic hazards, the selection of consistent and reliable scenarios, constructed in a strictly systematic way, is fundamental for the quality and reproducibility of the results. However, subjective assumptions on relevant impact variables such as sediment transport intensity on the system loading side and weak point response mechanisms repeatedly cause biases in the results, and consequently affect transparency and required quality standards. Furthermore, the system response of mitigation measures to extreme event loadings represents another key variable in hazard assessment, as well as the integral risk management including intervention planning. Formative Scenario Analysis, as a supplement to conventional risk assessment methods, is a technique to construct well-defined sets of assumptions to gain insight into a specific case and the potential system behaviour. By two case studies, carried out (1) to analyse sediment transport dynamics in a torrent section equipped with control measures, and (2) to identify hazards induced by woody debris transport at hydraulic weak points, the applicability of the Formative Scenario Analysis technique is presented. It is argued that during scenario planning in general and with respect to integral risk management in particular, Formative Scenario Analysis allows for the development of reliable and reproducible scenarios in order to design more specifically an application framework for the sustainable assessment of natural hazards impact. The overall aim is to optimise the hazard mapping and zoning procedure by methodologically integrating quantitative and qualitative knowledge.

scholarly journals Extension of Energy and Transport Scenario Modelling to Include a Life Cycle Perspective

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 188-201
Author(s):  
Simon Pichlmaier ◽  
Michael Kult ◽  
Ulrich Wagner
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Transport Systems ◽  
Large Share ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Life Cycle Perspective ◽  
Scenario Modelling ◽  
Operational Phase ◽  
Conventional Systems

The paper outlines the methodology for the extension of the assessment of transport scenarios to include a life cycle perspective. When considering greenhouse gas emissions in the operational phase, the inclusion of the upstream chain increases emissions in conventional systems by only 17% to 19%. In transport systems that utilise a large share of electricity generated predominantly from renewable energies without direct emissions, this value can rise sharply. In the present case, up to 304%. The emissions currently associated with the production of the transport fleet correspond to 56 Mt CO2e and thus 22% of total emissions. In most scenarios, however, this value decreases more slowly than the operational emissions. This increases the share of emissions caused by production. Thus, the inclusion of life cycle emissions is an important component for assessing sustainability.

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