Optimization of numerical weather/wave prediction models based on information geometry and computational techniques

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
George Galanis ◽  
Ioannis Famelis ◽  
Christina Kalogeri
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Models ◽  
Information Geometry ◽  
Computational Techniques ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Wave Prediction

scholarly journals Parametrizations of Liquid and Ice Clouds’ Optical Properties in Operational Numerical Weather Prediction Models

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 89
Author(s):  
Harel. B. Muskatel ◽  
Ulrich Blahak ◽  
Pavel Khain ◽  
Yoav Levi ◽  
Qiang Fu
Keyword(s):  
Optical Properties ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Radiation Transfer ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Effective Size ◽  
Asymmetry Factor ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction Models ◽  
Spectral Averaging

Parametrization of radiation transfer through clouds is an important factor in the ability of Numerical Weather Prediction models to correctly describe the weather evolution. Here we present a practical parameterization of both liquid droplets and ice optical properties in the longwave and shortwave radiation. An advanced spectral averaging method is used to calculate the extinction coefficient, single scattering albedo, forward scattered fraction and asymmetry factor (bext, v, f, g), taking into account the nonlinear effects of light attenuation in the spectral averaging. An ensemble of particle size distributions was used for the ice optical properties calculations, which enables the effective size range to be extended up to 570 μm and thus be applicable for larger hydrometeor categories such as snow, graupel, and rain. The new parameterization was applied both in the COSMO limited-area model and in ICON global model and was evaluated by using the COSMO model to simulate stratiform ice and water clouds. Numerical weather prediction models usually determine the asymmetry factor as a function of effective size. For the first time in an operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, the asymmetry factor is parametrized as a function of aspect ratio. The method is generalized and is available on-line to be readily applied to any optical properties dataset and spectral intervals of a wide range of radiation transfer models and applications.

Impact of Consistent Semi-Lagrangian Trajectory Calculations on Numerical Weather Prediction Performance

2017 ◽  
Vol 145 (10) ◽  
pp. 4127-4150 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Zahid Husain ◽  
Claude Girard
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Numerical Experiments ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Multiscale Model ◽  
Dynamical Equations ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Trajectory Calculation ◽  
Trajectory Calculations

Inconsistencies may arise in numerical weather prediction models—that are based on semi-Lagrangian advection—when the governing dynamical and the kinematic trajectory equations are discretized in a dissimilar manner. This study presents consistent trajectory calculation approaches, both in the presence and absence of off-centering in the discretized dynamical equations. Both uniform and differential off-centering in the discretized dynamical equations have been considered. The proposed consistent trajectory calculations are evaluated using numerical experiments involving a nonhydrostatic two-dimensional theoretical mountain case and hydrostatic global forecasts. The experiments are carried out using the Global Environmental Multiscale model. Both the choice of the averaging method for approximating the velocity integral in the discretized trajectory equations and the interpolation scheme for calculating the departure positions are found to be important for consistent trajectory calculations. Results from the numerical experiments confirm that the proposed consistent trajectory calculation approaches not only improve numerical consistency, but also improve forecast accuracy.

scholarly journals EMPOL 1.0: a new parameterization of pollen emission in numerical weather prediction models

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (6) ◽  
pp. 1961-1975 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Zink ◽  
A. Pauling ◽  
M. W. Rotach ◽  
H. Vogel ◽  
P. Kaufmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Birch Pollen ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Pollen Emission ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Pollen Concentrations ◽  
Scale Modelling ◽  
Reactive Trace Gases

Abstract. Simulating pollen concentrations with numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems requires a parameterization for pollen emission. We have developed a parameterization that is adaptable for different plant species. Both biological and physical processes of pollen emission are taken into account by parameterizing emission as a two-step process: (1) the release of the pollen from the flowers, and (2) their entrainment into the atmosphere. Key factors influencing emission are temperature, relative humidity, the turbulent kinetic energy and precipitation. We have simulated the birch pollen season of 2012 using the NWP system COSMO-ART (Consortium for Small-scale Modelling – Aerosols and Reactive Trace Gases), both with a parameterization already present in the model and with our new parameterization EMPOL. The statistical results show that the performance of the model can be enhanced by using EMPOL.

Forecasting wave height probabilities with numerical weather prediction models

2005 ◽  
Vol 32 (14-15) ◽  
pp. 1841-1863 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark S. Roulston ◽  
Jerome Ellepola ◽  
Jost von Hardenberg ◽  
Leonard A. Smith
Keyword(s):  
Wave Height ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction Models

scholarly journals Numerical and Physical Diffusion: Can Wave Prediction Models Resolve Directional Spread?

2005 ◽  
Vol 22 (7) ◽  
pp. 886-895 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Ardhuin ◽  
T. H. C. Herbers
Keyword(s):  
Continental Shelf ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Spectral Band ◽  
Wave Spectrum ◽  
Single Frequency ◽  
Propagation Time ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Numerical Diffusion ◽  
Wave Prediction ◽  
Lagrangian Scheme

Abstract A new semi-Lagrangian advection scheme called multistep ray advection is proposed for solving the spectral energy balance equation of ocean surface gravity waves. Existing so-called piecewise ray methods advect wave energy over a single time step using “pieces” of ray trajectories, after which the spectrum is updated with source terms representing various physical processes. The generalized scheme presented here allows for an arbitrary number N of advection time steps along the same rays, thus reducing numerical diffusion, and still including source-term variations every time step. Tests are performed for alongshore uniform bottom topography, and the effects of two types of discretizations of the wave spectrum are investigated, a finite-bandwidth representation and a single frequency and direction per spectral band. In the limit of large N, both the accuracy and computation cost of the method increase, approaching a nondiffusive fully Lagrangian scheme. Even for N = 1 the semi-Lagrangian scheme test results show less numerical diffusion than predictions of the commonly used first-order upwind finite-difference scheme. Application to the refraction and shoaling of narrow swell spectra across a continental shelf illustrates the importance of controlling numerical diffusion. Numerical errors in a single-step (Δt = 600 s) scheme implemented on the North Carolina continental shelf (typical swell propagation time across the shelf is about 3 h) are shown to be comparable to the angular diffusion predicted by the wave–bottom Bragg scattering theory, in particular for narrow directional spectra, suggesting that the true directional spread of swell may not always be resolved in existing wave prediction models, because of excessive numerical diffusion. This diffusion is effectively suppressed in cases presented here with a four-step semi-Lagrangian scheme, using the same value of Δt.

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