Sensitivity analysis of the age-structured malaria transmission model

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joel M. Addawe ◽  
Jose Ernie C. Lope
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Malaria Transmission ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Age Structured

scholarly journals Model-based evaluation of school- and non-school-related measures to control the COVID-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ganna Rozhnova ◽  
Christiaan H. van Dorp ◽  
Patricia Bruijning-Verhagen ◽  
Martin C. J. Bootsma ◽  
Janneke H. H. M. van de Wijgert ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Additional Benefit ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Time Points ◽  
School Based ◽  
Admission Data ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pandemic Wave

AbstractThe role of school-based contacts in the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 is incompletely understood. We use an age-structured transmission model fitted to age-specific seroprevalence and hospital admission data to assess the effects of school-based measures at different time points during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Netherlands. Our analyses suggest that the impact of measures reducing school-based contacts depends on the remaining opportunities to reduce non-school-based contacts. If opportunities to reduce the effective reproduction number (Re) with non-school-based measures are exhausted or undesired and Re is still close to 1, the additional benefit of school-based measures may be considerable, particularly among older school children. As two examples, we demonstrate that keeping schools closed after the summer holidays in 2020, in the absence of other measures, would not have prevented the second pandemic wave in autumn 2020 but closing schools in November 2020 could have reduced Re below 1, with unchanged non-school-based contacts.

scholarly journals Mathematical Models for Assessing Vaccination Scenarios in Several Provinces in Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Nuraini ◽  
K. Khairudin ◽  
P. Hadisoemarto ◽  
H. Susanto ◽  
A. Hasan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
West Java ◽  
Dynamic Transmission Model ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
Age Structured

AbstractTo mitigate more casualties from the COVID-19 outbreak, this study assessed optimal vaccination scenarios, considering some existing healthcare conditions and some assumptions, by developing SIQRD (Susceptible-Infected-Quarantine-Recovery-Death) models for Jakarta, West Java, and Banten, in Indonesia. The models included an age-structured dynamic transmission model that naturally could give different treatments among age groups of population. The simulation results show that the timing and period’s length of the vaccination should be well planned and prioritizing particular age groups will give significant impact on the total number of casualties.

scholarly journals Model-based evaluation of school- and non-school-related measures to control the COVID-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ganna Rozhnova ◽  
Christiaan van Dorp ◽  
Patricia Bruijning-Verhagen ◽  
Martin Bootsma ◽  
Janneke van de Wijgert ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Additional Benefit ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Time Points ◽  
School Based ◽  
Admission Data ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pandemic Wave

Abstract The role of school-based contacts in the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 is incompletely understood. We used an age-structured transmission model fitted to age-specific seroprevalence and hospital admission data to assess the effects of school-based measures at different time points during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Netherlands. Our analyses suggest that the impact of measures reducing school-based contacts depends on the remaining opportunities to reduce non-school-based contacts. If opportunities to reduce the effective reproduction number (Re) with non-school-based measures are exhausted or undesired and Re is still close to 1, the additional benefit of school-based measures may be considerable, particularly among older school children. As two examples, we demonstrate that keeping schools closed after the summer holidays in 2020, in the absence of other measures, would not have prevented the second pandemic wave in autumn 2020 but closing schools in November 2020 could have reduced Re below 1, with unchanged non-school-based contacts.

scholarly journals Global Stability of Malaria Transmission Dynamics Model with Logistic Growth

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abadi Abay Gebremeskel
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Global Stability ◽  
Malaria Transmission ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Logistic Growth ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
The Impact

Mathematical models become an important and popular tools to understand the dynamics of the disease and give an insight to reduce the impact of malaria burden within the community. Thus, this paper aims to apply a mathematical model to study global stability of malaria transmission dynamics model with logistic growth. Analysis of the model applies scaling and sensitivity analysis and sensitivity analysis of the model applied to understand the important parameters in transmission and prevalence of malaria disease. We derive the equilibrium points of the model and investigated their stabilities. The results of our analysis have shown that if R0≤1, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, and the disease dies out; if R0>1, then the unique endemic equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable and the disease persists within the population. Furthermore, numerical simulations in the application of the model showed the abrupt and periodic variations.

scholarly journals Backward bifurcation in a malaria transmission model

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 368-388 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanyuan Xing ◽  
Zhiming Guo ◽  
Jian Liu
Keyword(s):  
Malaria Transmission ◽  
Backward Bifurcation ◽  
Transmission Model

A Malaria Transmission Model Predicts Holoendemic, Hyperendemic, and Hypoendemic Transmission Patterns Under Varied Seasonal Vector Dynamics

2019 ◽  
Vol 57 (2) ◽  
pp. 568-584
Author(s):  
Vardayani Ratti ◽  
Dorothy I Wallace
Keyword(s):  
Steady State ◽  
Anopheles Gambiae ◽  
Malaria Transmission ◽  
Entomological Inoculation Rate ◽  
Disease Prevalence ◽  
Larval Habitat ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Habitat Availability ◽  
Human Populations ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract A model is developed of malaria (Plasmodium falciparum) transmission in vector (Anopheles gambiae) and human populations that include the capacity for both clinical and parasite suppressing immunity. This model is coupled with a population model for Anopheles gambiae that varies seasonal with temperature and larval habitat availability. At steady state, the model clearly distinguishes uns hypoendemic transmission patterns from stable hyperendemic and holoendemic patterns of transmission. The model further distinguishes hyperendemic from holoendemic disease based on seasonality of infection. For hyperendemic and holoendemic transmission, the model produces the relationship between entomological inoculation rate and disease prevalence observed in the field. It further produces expected rates of immunity and prevalence across all three endemic patterns. The model does not produce mesoendemic transmission patterns at steady state for any parameter choices, leading to the conclusion that mesoendemic patterns occur during transient states or as a result of factors not included in this study. The model shows that coupling the effect of varying larval habitat availability with the effects of clinical and parasite-suppressing immunity is enough to produce known patterns of malaria transmission.

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