Short term climate variability and predictions

1992 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Shukla
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Short Term

scholarly journals Climate bones of contention: How climate variability influences territorial, maritime, and river interstate conflicts

2021 ◽  
Vol 58 (1) ◽  
pp. 132-150
Author(s):  
Cody J Schmidt ◽  
Bomi K Lee ◽  
Sara McLaughlin Mitchell
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
World Politics ◽  
Western Hemisphere ◽  
Intrastate Conflict ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Interstate Conflicts ◽  
The Relationship

Many scholars examine the relationship between climate variability and intrastate conflict onset. While empirical findings in this literature are mixed, we know less about how climate changes increase the risks for conflicts between countries. This article studies climate variability using the issue approach to world politics. We examine whether climate variability influences the onset and militarization of interstate diplomatic conflicts and whether these effects are similar across issues that involve sovereignty claims for land (territory) or water (maritime, river). We focus on two theoretical mechanisms: scarcity ( abundance) and uncertainty. We measure these concepts empirically through climate deviation (e.g. droughts/floods, heat waves/cold spells) and climate volatility (greater short-term variance in precipitation/temperature). Analyses of issue claims in the Western Hemisphere and Europe (1901–2001) show that greater deviations and volatility in climate conditions increase risks for new diplomatic conflicts and militarization of ongoing issues and that climate change acts as a trigger for revisionist states.

scholarly journals Major modes of short-term climate variability in the newly developed NUIST Earth System Model (NESM)

2015 ◽  
Vol 32 (5) ◽  
pp. 585-600 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Cao ◽  
Bin Wang ◽  
Baoqiang Xiang ◽  
Juan Li ◽  
Tianjie Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Short Term

Ecosystem responses to short-term climate variability in the Gulf of the Farallones, California

2008 ◽  
Vol 77 (2-3) ◽  
pp. 182-193 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Jahncke ◽  
B.L. Saenz ◽  
C.L. Abraham ◽  
C. Rintoul ◽  
R.W. Bradley ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Ecosystem Responses

scholarly journals To Examine Coping Adaptive Strategies Used by Households and Make Policy Recommendations for Addressing Future Climate Change Impacts on Livelihoods in Kapsokwony Division, Mt. Elgon Sub-County, Bungoma County, Kenya

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 251-269
Author(s):  
Sindani Bon Bonzemo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Social Economic ◽  
Adaptive Strategies ◽  
Policy Recommendations ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Climate Resilience ◽  
The World ◽  
Social Economic Development

Long and short term changes in climate are disproportionately affecting all parts of the world in equal measure. The most impacted by vagaries of climate change are the most vulnerable and the poor who live in the developing world. Climate change and climate variability impacts the smallholder farmers though they continue to apply traditional technologies in order to cope with climate change vulnerability. In most of the parts the world over, coping strategies are lacking especially in the African States. Trans-disciplinary research approach was used to analyze the perception of community’s’ responses to climate change and climate variability at the household level. The purpose of this study was to build new transformation knowledge by integrating the traditional and the modern adaptive technologies in order to transform lives of the indigenous communities in the study area. This paper therefore explores and highlights the existing and modern technologies which can be employed by farmers to counteract the impacts of climate change and climate variability. Primary data was collected through in-depth and informant interviews together with Focused Group Discussions (FGDs) and a structured questionnaire administered to 384 household heads in twelve sub-locations in the study area (Kapsokwony Division) formed the basis of these policy recommendations. Secondary data constituting rainfall and temperature parameters was collected from Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD). The long and short term integrated adaptive strategies and policy recommendations generated and developed by all the actors including those from the academia and the traditional communities during the research are meant to build climate resilience and adaptive capacity at local and national levels. A framework that has been developed by this research will help support policy decisions in conservation agriculture and livestock rearing systems, water resource management, change in social behavior, accessing early warning information, promotion of organic farming and human health systems. If fully implemented these policy recommendations will go a long way to bring a paradigm shift that will improve livelihoods and social economic development in the region. These recommendations can be replicated in any other region of the world to bring about desired changes to a people impacted by climate change. The research study achieved capacity building, resilience, adaptive learning, change in attitude and behavior, community empowerment, application of transformation knowledge as well as climate change awareness amongst area residents. The new societal knowledge was used to elucidate long term policies and adaptive strategies to enhance climate resilience, help eliminate poverty levels, improve livelihoods and sustain social economic development. The study recommends collaboration among stakeholders and integration of various sources of knowledge in addressing climate change and climate variability among residents in Kapsokwony Sub-county. Further research should be carried out in the future to corroborate these findings.

scholarly journals Incorporating decadal climate variability information in the operation and design of water infrastructure

Water Policy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (S1) ◽  
pp. 232-249
Author(s):  
J. Rolf Olsen ◽  
Vikram M. Mehta ◽  
Harvey Hill
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Warm Pool ◽  
Water Vapor Transport ◽  
Decadal Climate Variability ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Inland Navigation ◽  
Rotational Crop ◽  
Decadal Climate

Abstract The high thermal and mechanical inertia of the oceans results in slow changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Changes in SSTs, in turn, can impact atmospheric circulation including water vapor transport, precipitation, and temperatures throughout the world. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the tropical Atlantic SST gradient variability, and the West Pacific Warm Pool are patterns of natural climate variability that tend to persist over decadal time periods. There are current efforts to produce decadal climate predictions, but there is limited understanding if this information can be used in water resources management. Understanding the current state of decadal climate variability (DCV) phenomena and the probability of persisting in that state may be useful information for water managers. This information could improve forecasts that aid operations and short-term planning for reservoir management, domestic and industrial water supplies, flood risk management, energy production, recreation, inland navigation, and irrigation. If conditions indicate a higher likelihood of drought, reservoir managers could reduce flood storage space and increase storage for conservation purposes. Improved forecasts for irrigation could result in greater efficiencies by shifting crops and rotational crop patterns. The potential benefits of using a forecast must be balanced against the risk of damages if the forecast is wrong. Seasonal forecasts using DCV information could also be used to inform drought triggers. If DCV indices indicate that the climate has a higher probability of dry conditions, drought contingency plans could be triggered earlier. Understanding of DCV phenomena could also improve long-range water resources planning. DCV can manifest itself in relatively short-term hydrologic records as linear trends that complicate hydrologic frequency analysis, which has traditionally assumed that hydrologic records are stationary.

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