Robust Approach to Verifying the Weak Form of the Efficient Market Hypothesis

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luboš Střelec ◽  
Theodore E. Simos ◽  
George Psihoyios ◽  
Ch. Tsitouras ◽  
Zacharias Anastassi
Keyword(s):  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
Robust Approach

An Empirical Study on Efficient Market Hypothesis with reference to FMCG Sector

GIS Business ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 109-126
Author(s):  
Nitin Tanted ◽  
Prashant Mistry
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Controversial Issues ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
Price Movements ◽  
Run Test ◽  
Stock Price Movements

One of the highly controversial issues in the area of finance is “Efficient Market Hypothesis”. Efficient Market Hypothesis states that, “In an efficient market, all available price information is reflected in the stock prices and it is not possible to generate abnormal returns compared to other investors.” A lot of studies conducted previouslyto test the Efficient Market Hypothesis, confirmed the theory until recent years, when some academicians found it to be non-applicable in financial markets. According to them, it is possible to forecast the stock price movements using Technical Analysis. The results of various studies have been inconclusive and indefinite about the issue. This study attempted to test the efficiency of FMCG Sector stocks in India in its weak form. For the study, closing prices of top 10 stocks from Nifty FMCG index has been taken for the 5-year period ranging from 1st October 2014 to 30th September 2019. Wald-Wolfowitz Run test has been used to test the haphazard movements in the stock price movements. The results indicated that FMCG sector stocks does support the Efficient Market Hypothesis and exhibit efficiency in its weak form. Hence, it is not possible to accurately predict the price movements of these stocks.

Testing the weak form of efficient market hypothesis for socially responsible and Shariah indexes in the USA

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abbas Khan ◽  
Muhammad Yar Khan ◽  
Abdul Qayyum Khan ◽  
Majid Jamal Khan ◽  
Zia Ur Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Future Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Socially Responsible ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us

Purpose By testing the weak form of efficient market hypothesis (EMH) this study aims to forecast the short-term stock prices of the US Dow and Jones environmental socially responsible index (SRI) and Shariah compliance index (SCI). Design/methodology/approach This study checks the validity of the weak form of EMH for both SCI and SRI prices by using different parametric and non-parametric tests, i.e. augmented Dickey-Fuller test, Philip-Perron test, runs test and variance ratio test. If the EMH is invalid, the research further forecasts short-term stock prices by applying autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model using daily price data from 2010 to 2018. Findings The research confirms that a weak form of EMH is not valid in the US SRI and SCI. The historical data can predict short-term future price movements by using technical ARIMA model. Research limitations/implications This study provides better guidance to risk-averse national and international investors to earn higher returns in the US SRI and SCI. This study can be extended to test the EMH of Islamic equity in the Middle East and North Africa region and other top Islamic indexes in the world. Originality/value This study is a new addition to the existing literature of equity investment and price forecasting by comparing and investigating the market efficiency of two interrelated US SRI and SCI.

scholarly journals Die Johannesburgse Effektebeurs as rasionele kapitaalmark

1981 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 53-59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leon M. Brummer ◽  
Pieter J. Jacobs
Keyword(s):  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Small Degree ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Economic Point ◽  
Johannesburg Stock Exchange ◽  
Measure Of Dependence

The Johannesburg Stock Exchange as an efficient market. Finality has not yet been reached on the question whether the Johannesburg Stock Exchange complies with the requirements of the efficient market hypothesis. The results of the research that are published in this article is therefore an attempt to make a contribution to the debate regarding the Johannesburg Stock Exchange as an efficient market. By way of serial correlations as well as runs tests an investigation was carried out into the behaviour of the prices of 94 quoted shares for the period 1970 to 1977. The results of the study give rise to the conclusion that the Johannesburg Stock Exchange does not statistically comply with the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis (the random walk hypothesis), as a measure of dependence between successive price changes was found. Seen from an economic point of view it is, however, doubtful whether investors could use this small degree of dependence between price changes to gain higher returns on share investments.Uitsluitsel met betrekking tot die mate waartoe die Johannesburgse Effektebeurs aan die vereistes vir 'n rasionele mark voldoen, is nog nie verkry nie. Die resultate wat in hierdie artikel voorkom is daarom 'n poging om 'n bydrae in die debat rakende die Johannesburgse Effektebeurs as 'n rasionele mark, te maak. 'n Ondersoek na die markpryse van 94 genoteerde aandele vir die periode 1970-77 is deur middel van reekskorrelasiekoeffisiente en die lopietoets uitgevoer. Die resultate van die studie gee aanleiding tot die gevolgtrekking dat die Johannesburgse Effektebeurs nie statisties aan die swak vorm van die rasionele markhipotese (die willekeurige beweging van markpryse) voldoen nie, aangesien 'n mate van afhanklikheid tussen opeenvolgende prysveranderings gevind is. Uit 'n ekonomiese oogpunt gesien is dit egter twyfelagtig of beleggers hierdie afhanklikheid sal kan aanwend om hoer opbrengste op aandelebeleggings te bewerkstellig.

Testing the Weak Form of Efficient Market Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence from Asia-Pacific Markets

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kashif Hamid ◽  
Muhammad Tahir Suleman ◽  
Syed Zulfiqar Ali Shah ◽  
Rana Shahid Imdad Akash
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Efficient Market

scholarly journals The Investigation of a Weak Form of the Efficient Market Hypothesis: Evidence From Stock Markets in the European Union

2019 ◽  
pp. 107-116
Author(s):  
Jacek Karasiński
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Random Walk ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Random Walk Model ◽  
Stock Exchanges ◽  
Informational Efficiency ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
Research Period

The purpose of this article is to examine whether returns of main indexes of selected stock exchanges in the European Union are subject to the random walk model proposed by L. Bacheliere in 1900, which is considered by many researchers to be a synonym of a weak form of the efficient market. The research was conducted for the main indexes of eight selected European stock exchanges representing markets of a different capitalisation. In order to check whether the level of informational efficiency was stable in a whole research period, namely in the years 2000-2017, the research period was divided into three equal six years sub-periods. To test a weak form of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH), four different tests of returns distribution normality were done for daily, weekly, monthly and quarterly intervals. The conducted study allowed for rejecting the null hypothesis saying that returns are subject to the random walk model proposed by L. Bacheliere which leads to normal distribution. Moreover, some significant differences between the research periods occurred. Nonetheless as the random walk model seems to be too strict even for the biggest European markets, it is proposed to test whether the returns can be subject to other stable distributions like the Pareto distribution, which gives higher probability to extremely low and high returns of what resembles actual price fluctuations of financial markets.

scholarly journals Efficient Market Hypotheses Controversy and Nigerian Stock Exchange Relations

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
General Meeting ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
Price Series

This study; Nigerian Stock Exchange and Efficient Market Hypothesis was done using All Share Index (ASI) with daily data from January 02, 2014 to May 20, 2019 (1333 observations) and annual data from 1985 to 2018 (34 observations) collected from the Nigeria Stock Market fact books. The study employed three analytical methods namely the unit root test, GARCH Model and the Autocorrelation cum patial autocorrelation method for the assessment of weak form hypothesis on the daily and annual all share index in the Nigerian Stock market. The results of these evaluations indicated a significant relationship between the price series and their lagged values implying that stock price series do not follow a random walk process in Nigerian stock market. Thus, affirming that the Nigeria Stock Exchange is not efficient in weak form. In the light of this, the researchers recommend that the supervisory and regulatory authorities should strengthen the Nigerian Stock Market through palliating its regulations pertaining to transparency of information management rules such as market barriers and stringent listing requirement, publication of accounts, notices of annual general meeting and the like.

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