Shaping Sea-Level Rise Adaptation Policy through Science: The North Carolina Sea Level Rise Risk Management Study

Author(s):  
John K. Dorman ◽  
Brian K. Batten ◽  
Adam Hosking
2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (7) ◽  
pp. 1845-1862 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Jørgensen ◽  
W. Scheer ◽  
S. Thomsen ◽  
T. O. Sonnenborg ◽  
K. Hinsby ◽  
...  

Abstract. Geophysical techniques are increasingly being used as tools for characterising the subsurface, and they are generally required to develop subsurface models that properly delineate the distribution of aquifers and aquitards, salt/freshwater interfaces, and geological structures that affect groundwater flow. In a study area covering 730 km2 across the border between Germany and Denmark, a combination of an airborne electromagnetic survey (performed with the SkyTEM system), a high-resolution seismic survey and borehole logging has been used in an integrated mapping of important geological, physical and chemical features of the subsurface. The spacing between flight lines is 200–250 m which gives a total of about 3200 line km. About 38 km of seismic lines have been collected. Faults bordering a graben structure, buried tunnel valleys, glaciotectonic thrust complexes, marine clay units, and sand aquifers are all examples of geological structures mapped by the geophysical data that control groundwater flow and to some extent hydrochemistry. Additionally, the data provide an excellent picture of the salinity distribution in the area and thus provide important information on the salt/freshwater boundary and the chemical status of groundwater. Although the westernmost part of the study area along the North Sea coast is saturated with saline water and the TEM data therefore are strongly influenced by the increased electrical conductivity there, buried valleys and other geological elements are still revealed. The mapped salinity distribution indicates preferential flow paths through and along specific geological structures within the area. The effects of a future sea level rise on the groundwater system and groundwater chemistry are discussed with special emphasis on the importance of knowing the existence, distribution and geometry of the mapped geological elements, and their control on the groundwater salinity distribution is assessed.


The development of the area, of the Thames Estuary is briefly traced since the late Cretaceous period, with its present outline being due to a combination of factors. The overall subsidence of the North Sea area, the ‘Alpine5 fold movements, and the transgression of the sea since the retreat of the Weichselian icesheets have all contributed. The positions of the shore-line during the critical phase, 9600 b.p. to 8000 b.p., of this last transgression of the sea are shown. Subsequent to this main transgressive phase, erosion of the shoreline has been rapid due to storm-waves and tidal current action. An estimation of the average rate of subsidence and/or sea-level rise is given based on the concept of sedimentary equilibrium in which a figure of 12.7 cm (5 in) per century is arrived at.


2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 193-214 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carol Considine ◽  
Emily Steinhilber

INTRODUCTION The Hampton Roads region is located in southeastern Virginia where the Chesapeake Bay meets the Atlantic Ocean. The region includes seventeen municipal governments and has a large federal government presence with 26 federal agencies represented (See Figure 1). The region has a population that exceeds 1.7 million and is home to the deepest water harbor on the U.S. East Coast. Hampton Roads' economy is dependent on the local waterways and houses the world's largest naval facility, the sixth largest containerized cargo complex and supports a thriving shipbuilding and repair industry as well as a tourism industry. However, the region's vast coastline also contributes to its vulnerability from climate change. Hampton Roads is experiencing sea level rise at twice the global rate with regional projections in the January 2017 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) report, Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States, of 1.9 feet of sea level rise at the low end and 11.5 feet of sea level rise under the most extreme case between 2000 and 2100 (NOAA, 2017). Planning for adaptation to sea level rise requires regional partnerships and strategies, especially for watersheds that cross municipal boundaries. While many of the municipalities in the region are forward thinking in their approaches to sea level rise, there is not a regional plan for adaptation and current federal funding models do not support analysis of and planning for sea level rise impacts on a regional scale. For coastal communities to be successful in sea level rise adaptation, there has to be a national understanding that water knows no borders and only collaborative problem-solving approaches that cross municipal boundaries will move regions toward adaptation. Functional boundaries of ecosystems or watersheds need to be the focus of adaptation rather than political boundaries of local, state, and federal entities. Coordination and collaboration between entities is the only way to achieve optimal outcomes.


2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 669-685 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Consolaro ◽  
T. L. Rasmussen ◽  
G. Panieri ◽  
J. Mienert ◽  
S. Bünz ◽  
...  

Abstract. We present results from a sediment core collected from a pockmark field on the Vestnesa Ridge (~ 80° N) in the eastern Fram Strait. This is the only deep-water gateway to the Arctic, and one of the northernmost marine gas hydrate provinces in the world. Eight 14C AMS dates reveal a detailed chronology for the last 14 ka BP. The δ 13C record measured on the benthonic foraminiferal species Cassidulina neoteretis shows two distinct intervals with negative values termed carbon isotope excursion (CIE I and CIE II, respectively). The values were as low as −4.37‰ in CIE I, correlating with the Bølling–Allerød interstadials, and as low as −3.41‰ in CIE II, correlating with the early Holocene. In the Bølling–Allerød interstadials, the planktonic foraminifera also show negative values, probably indicating secondary methane-derived authigenic precipitation affecting the foraminiferal shells. After a cleaning procedure designed to remove authigenic carbonate coatings on benthonic foraminiferal tests from this event, the 13C values are still negative (as low as −2.75‰). The CIE I and CIE II occurred during periods of ocean warming, sea-level rise and increased concentrations of methane (CH4) in the atmosphere. CIEs with similar timing have been reported from other areas in the North Atlantic, suggesting a regional event. The trigger mechanisms for such regional events remain to be determined. We speculate that sea-level rise and seabed loading due to high sediment supply in combination with increased seismic activity as a result of rapid deglaciation may have triggered the escape of significant amounts of methane to the seafloor and the water column above.


2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (17) ◽  
pp. 2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergio Fagherazzi ◽  
Giovanna Nordio ◽  
Keila Munz ◽  
Daniele Catucci ◽  
William S. Kearney

Retreat of coastal forests in relation to sea level rise has been widely documented. Recent work indicates that coastal forests on the Delmarva Peninsula, United States, can be differentiated into persistence and regenerative zones as a function of sea-level rise and storm events. In the lower persistence zone trees cannot regenerate because of frequent flooding and high soil salinity. This study aims to verify the existence of these zones using spectral remote sensing data, and determine whether the effect of large storm events that cause damage to these forests can be detected from satellite images. Spectral analysis confirms a significant difference in average Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) values in the proposed persistence and regenerative zones. Both NDVI and NDWI indexes decrease after storms triggering a surge above 1.3 m with respect to the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD88). NDWI values decrease more, suggesting that this index is better suited to detect the effect of hurricanes on coastal forests. In the regenerative zone, both NDVI and NDWI values recover three years after a storm, while in the persistence zone the NDVI and NDWI values keep decreasing, possibly due to sea level rise causing vegetation stress. As a result, the forest resilience to storms in the persistence zone is lower than in the regenerative zone. Our findings corroborate the ecological ratchet model of coastal forest disturbance.


Ocean Science ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 147-159 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Harker ◽  
J. A. Mattias Green ◽  
Michael Schindelegger ◽  
Sophie-Berenice Wilmes

Abstract. An established tidal model, validated for present-day conditions, is used to investigate the effect of large levels of sea-level rise (SLR) on tidal characteristics around Australasia. SLR is implemented through a uniform depth increase across the model domain, with a comparison between the implementation of coastal defences or allowing low-lying land to flood. The complex spatial response of the semi-diurnal M2 constituent does not appear to be linear with the imposed SLR. The most predominant features of this response are the generation of new amphidromic systems within the Gulf of Carpentaria and large-amplitude changes in the Arafura Sea, to the north of Australia, and within embayments along Australia's north-west coast. Dissipation from M2 notably decreases along north-west Australia but is enhanced around New Zealand and the island chains to the north. The diurnal constituent, K1, is found to decrease in amplitude in the Gulf of Carpentaria when flooding is allowed. Coastal flooding has a profound impact on the response of tidal amplitudes to SLR by creating local regions of increased tidal dissipation and altering the coastal topography. Our results also highlight the necessity for regional models to use correct open boundary conditions reflecting the global tidal changes in response to SLR.


Radiocarbon ◽  
2000 ◽  
Vol 42 (3) ◽  
pp. 383-401 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yusuke Yokoyama ◽  
Tezer M Esat ◽  
Kurt Lambeck ◽  
L Keith Fifield

Uranium series and radiocarbon ages were measured in corals from the uplifted coral terraces of Huon Peninsula (HP), Papua New Guinea, to provide a calibration for the 14C time scale beyond 30 ka (kilo annum). Improved analytical procedures, and quantitative criteria for sample selection, helped discriminate diagenetically altered samples. The base-line of the calibration curve follows the trend of increasing divergence from calendar ages, as established by previous studies. Superimposed on this trend, four well-defined peaks of excess atmospheric radiocarbon were found ranging in magnitude from 100% to 700%, relative to current levels. They are related to episodes of sea-level rise and reef growth at HP. These peaks appear to be synchronous with Heinrich Events and concentrations of ice-rafted debris found in North Atlantic deep-sea cores. Relative timing of sea-level rise and atmospheric 14C excess imply the following sequence of events: An initial sea-level high is followed by a large increase in atmospheric 14C as the sea-level subsides. Over about 1800 years, the atmospheric radiocarbon drops to below present ambient levels. This cycle bears a close resemblance to ice-calving episodes of Dansgaard-Oeschger and Bond cycles and the slow-down or complete interruption of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation. The increases in the atmospheric 14C levels are attributed to the cessation of the North Atlantic circulation.


Ocean Science ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Caroline Rasquin ◽  
Rita Seiffert ◽  
Benno Wachler ◽  
Norbert Winkel

Abstract. Due to climate change an accelerated mean sea level rise is expected. One key question for the development of adaptation measures is how mean sea level rise affects tidal dynamics in shelf seas such as the North Sea. Owing to its low-lying coastal areas, the German Bight (located in the southeast of the North Sea) will be especially affected. Numerical hydrodynamic models help to understand how mean sea level rise changes tidal dynamics. Models cannot adequately represent all processes in overall detail. One limiting factor is the resolution of the model grid. In this study we investigate which role the representation of the coastal bathymetry plays when analysing the response of tidal dynamics to mean sea level rise. Using a shelf model including the whole North Sea and a high-resolution hydrodynamic model of the German Bight we investigate the changes in M2 amplitude due to a mean sea level rise of 0.8 and 10 m. The shelf model and the German Bight Model react in different ways. In the simulations with a mean sea level rise of 0.8 m the M2 amplitude in the shelf model generally increases in the region of the German Bight. In contrast, the M2 amplitude in the German Bight Model increases only in some coastal areas and decreases in the northern part of the German Bight. In the simulations with a mean sea level rise of 10 m the M2 amplitude increases in both models with largely similar spatial patterns. In two case studies we adjust the German Bight Model in order to more closely resemble the shelf model. We find that a different resolution of the bathymetry results in different energy dissipation changes in response to mean sea level rise. Our results show that the resolution of the bathymetry especially in flat intertidal areas plays a crucial role for modelling the impact of mean sea level rise.


2009 ◽  
Vol 28 (17-18) ◽  
pp. 1725-1736 ◽  
Author(s):  
B.P. Horton ◽  
W.R. Peltier ◽  
S.J. Culver ◽  
R. Drummond ◽  
S.E. Engelhart ◽  
...  

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