On the Probabilistic Approach to Fiscal Sustainability: Structural Breaks and Non-Normality

2009 ◽  
Vol 56 (4) ◽  
pp. 742-757 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathaniel Frank ◽  
Eduardo Ley
Keyword(s):  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability

scholarly journals Fiscal sustainability in cee countries – the case of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland

Equilibrium ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 53 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joanna Mackiewicz-Łyziak
Keyword(s):  
Czech Republic ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Pension System ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Unit Root Tests ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Dominance Testing ◽  
Fiscal Dominance

The aim of the study is to assess fiscal sustainability in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland and to test for existence of fiscal dominance in these countries in the context of the fiscal theory of the price level. The empirical study is conducted using unit root tests and cointegration analysis with possible structural breaks. The approach is consistent with so called backward-looking approach for fiscal dominance testing proposed by Bohn (1998). The results suggest that in the Czech Republic and Poland fiscal dominance prevailed in the analyzed period, while in Hungary – monetary dominance. The result for Hungary may be caused, however, by a one-time reduction in debt resulting from changes in pension system.

Fiscal sustainability test: The case of Turkey

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mücahit Aydın ◽  
Veli Yılancı
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Alternative Hypothesis ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Turkish Economy ◽  
Income Ratio

The main purpose of the study is to test the sustainability of fiscal policies for Turkish economy using quarterly series over the period 2000:1 to 2015:2. By considering Kremers (1989) sustainability condition we test the debt-income ratio by using Lee-Strazicich unit root test which allow structural breaks under both null and alternative hypothesis. The test results we obtained show that the series has a unit root which indicates the un-sustainability of public debt.Keywords: Fiscal policies, Fiscal Sustainability, Unit root test  

scholarly journals Fiscal Sustainability Hypothesis Test in Central and Eastern Europe: A Panel Data Perspective

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (55) ◽  
pp. 285-312
Author(s):  
Benjamin Owusu
Keyword(s):  
Structural Component ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Hypothesis Test ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Long Time ◽  
The Government ◽  
Eastern European Countries

Abstract This paper assesses the fiscal sustainability hypothesis for 10 Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC) between 1997 and 2019. The study adopts very recent panel econometric techniques which accounts for issues of structural breaks and cross-sectional dependence in the data generating process to examine the cointegration between government revenue and expenditures. Preliminary results show that revenues and expenditures do not have a long-run relationship and hence a rejection of the sustainability hypothesis. As a next step, we discriminate between structural and cyclical components of revenues and expenditures in order to place emphasis on the structural component. We argue that the structural component of fiscal variables represents the actual long term behaviour of the policymaker. Further results indicate that structural revenues and expenditures have a long-run relationship however with a slope coefficient less than unity which implies sustainability in the weaker sense. At that point, expenditures exceed revenues and if this continues for a long time the government may find it difficult to market its debts in the long run. This result suggests that the fiscal authorities in CEEC must therefore do more by taking long term actions to counteract the rising fiscal deficit problems.

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