Russia from Bust to Boom and Back: Oil Price, Dutch Disease and Stabilisation Fund

2009 ◽  
Vol 51 (2) ◽  
pp. 213-241 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruno Merlevede ◽  
Koen Schoors ◽  
Bas Van Aarle
Keyword(s):  
Dutch Disease ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Stabilisation Fund

scholarly journals Oil Price Fluctuations and the Future of Saudi Arabian Non-Oil Traded Sector: An Empirical Investigation

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 217
Author(s):  
Abdulaziz Hamad Algaeed
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Testing Procedure ◽  
Dutch Disease ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Disease Symptoms ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Government

The major focus of this paper is to investigate theoretically and empirically the effects of non-linear oil price changes on Saudi manufacturing (traded) sector covering the period of 1970 till 2015, utilizing structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) approach. The Dutch disease syndrome will be clarified, and the impacts of oil price variations (increase and decrease) are investigated. Johansen’s testing procedure result asserts the existence of stable long-run relationship between real traded sector (MANUFACTURING), oil price increase and decrease, real government expenditure (GOEX), real exchange rate (REX), and the mining sector (MINING). The findings confirm that OILshock(+), and REX influence MANU negatively, while the spending effect, GOEX affects MANU positively. However, this could be attributed to the government efforts to nullify the Dutch disease symptoms. Given, the obtained tests’ results, the exchange rate REX appreciation confirms the existence of the Dutch disease, and consistent with the Dutch disease literature and findings. The Manufacturing sector harmed enough to the degree that government has to subsidize.

Trade, Technology Transfer, and Hyper-Dutch Disease In Opec: Theory And Evidence

1988 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 469-477 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manoucher Parcin ◽  
Hashem Dezhbakhsh
Keyword(s):  
Technology Transfer ◽  
Dutch Disease ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Industrial Countries ◽  
Slow Pace ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Sectoral Growth

The oil price increases in the 1970s caused a transfer of wealth from importers to exporters and resulted in three major consequences. It led to a series of shocks in the economies of the industrial countries. It reduced further the slow pace of growth in the non-OPEC LDCs, and it distorted the sectoral growth in OPEC itself. Such unwarranted results have attracted the attention of both scholars and decision makers.

scholarly journals Abundance of the natural resources as a factor, which destimulates economic growth. Looking for the Dutch disease in Russia

2010 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-64
Author(s):  
Kornelia Gierczyńska
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Natural Resources ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Dutch Disease ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Economic Data

In general thinking, countries possessing rich natural resource deposits are blessed, as resource abundance has seemingly positive correlation with the wealth and economic development of a nation. However, experience shows that countries endowed with extreme amounts of natural resources have found themselves in a serious misuse and on a damaging growth path. Extraordinary resource possession is rather an opportunity than a guarantee for better economic performance. The term “Dutch disease” refers to a situation in which new discoveries of natural resources or sharp rises in commodity prices lead to an increase in the equilibrium real exchange rate, thus undermining the competitiveness of the other tradable sectors in the economy. As suggested in the academic literature the Dutch disease is associated ith four main symptoms: a slowdown in manufacturing output, a booming non-tradable sector, an increase in real wages and real exchange rate appreciation. Russia’s oil price dependence and the risk of the Dutch disease are often considered as the main long-term challenges to sustainable growth in the country. In this regard, it is worth studying the available economic data for evidence of these phenomena. Russia’s oil price dependence and the risk of the Dutch disease are often considered as the main long-term challenges to sustainable growth in the country. In this regard, it is worth studying the available economic data for evidence of these phenomena. The main section examines whether in Russia: exports have become more biased towards oil and gas, GDP growth has become more sensitive to oil price fluctuations, the economy is showing symptoms of the Dutch disease.

Oil Price and Dutch Disease: The Case of Algeria

2011 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 280-293
Author(s):  
R. Jbir ◽  
S. Zouari-Ghorbel
Keyword(s):  
Dutch Disease ◽  
Oil Price

scholarly journals Oil Price Fluctuations and the Future of Saudi Arabian Non-Oil Traded Sector: An Empirical Investigation

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (4(J)) ◽  
pp. 217-229
Author(s):  
Abdulaziz Hamad Algaeed
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Testing Procedure ◽  
Dutch Disease ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Disease Symptoms ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Government

The major focus of this paper is to investigate theoretically and empirically the effects of non-linear oil price changes on Saudi manufacturing (traded) sector covering the period of 1970 till 2015, utilizing structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) approach. The Dutch disease syndrome will be clarified, and the impacts of oil price variations (increase and decrease) are investigated. Johansen’s testing procedure result asserts the existence of stable long-run relationship between real traded sector (MANUFACTURING), oil price increase and decrease, real government expenditure (GOEX), real exchange rate (REX), and the mining sector (MINING). The findings confirm that OILshock(+), and REX influence MANU negatively, while the spending effect, GOEX affects MANU positively. However, this could be attributed to the government efforts to nullify the Dutch disease symptoms. Given, the obtained tests’ results, the exchange rate REX appreciation confirms the existence of the Dutch disease, and consistent with the Dutch disease literature and findings. The Manufacturing sector harmed enough to the degree that government has to subsidize.

scholarly journals THE DUTCH DISEASE EFFECT IN HIGH VS LOW OIL DEPENDENT COUNTRIES

2015 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
JEAN-PIERRE ALLEGRET ◽  
MOHAMED TAHAR BENKHODJA
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Dutch Disease ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Monetary Policy Rule ◽  
Merchandise Export ◽  
Disease Effect

<p class="ESRBODY">To investigate the main impacts of the recent increase of oil price on oil exporting economies, we estimate a DSGE model for a sample of 16 oil exporting countries (Algeria, Argentina, Ecuador, Gabon, Indonesia, Kuwait, Libya, Malaysia, Mexico, Nigeria, Oman, Russia, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela) over the period from 1980 to 2010, except for Russia where our sample begins in 1992. In order to distinguish between high-dependent and low-dependent countries, we use two indicators: the ratio of fuel exports to total merchandise export and the ratio of oil exports to GDP. We verify if the first group is more sensitive to the Dutch disease effect. We also assess the role of monetary policy.</p><p class="ESRBODY">Our main findings are twofold. First, our results confirm the fact that the Dutch disease occurs mainly in high oil dependent countries. More precisely, we find that the manufacturing production decreases in the aftermath of a positive oil price shock in six countries (on eight) of our first sample while only Mexico suffers from a Dutch disease in the sample of low oil dependent economies. Second, the appropriate monetary policy rule -exchange rate rule <em>versus</em> inflation targeting one-to prevent the Dutch disease differs according to the countries. In other words, the best monetary rule is specific to each country.</p>

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