Forecast of electricity consumption: a comparison of ARIMA and neural networks

2021 ◽  
pp. 381-397
Author(s):  
Theodoros Pseftelis ◽  
Constandinos Mavromoustakis ◽  
George Mastorakis ◽  
Periklis Chatzimisios ◽  
Evangelos K. Markakis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Electricity Consumption

Study of the operation of an artificial neural network that works in the electric network in order to prevent emergency conditions.

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 48-54
Author(s):  
D. Ostrenko ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Electrical Energy ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Electrical Networks ◽  
Electric Networks ◽  
Electric Network ◽  
Time Dynamics ◽  
Emergency Situations

Emergency modes in electrical networks, arising for various reasons, lead to a break in the transmission of electrical energy on the way from the generating facility to the consumer. In most cases, such time breaks are unacceptable (the degree depends on the class of the consumer). Therefore, an effective solution is to both deal with the consequences, use emergency input of the reserve, and prevent these emergency situations by predicting events in the electric network. After analyzing the source [1], it was concluded that there are several methods for performing the forecast of emergency situations in electric networks. It can be: technical analysis, operational data processing (or online analytical processing), nonlinear regression methods. However, it is neural networks that have received the greatest application for solving these tasks. In this paper, we analyze existing neural networks used to predict processes in electrical systems, analyze the learning algorithm, and propose a new method for using neural networks to predict in electrical networks. Prognostication in electrical engineering plays a key role in shaping the balance of electricity in the grid, influencing the choice of mode parameters and estimated electrical loads. The balance of generation of electricity is the basis of technological stability of the energy system, its violation affects the quality of electricity (there are frequency and voltage jumps in the network), which reduces the efficiency of the equipment. Also, the correct forecast allows to ensure the optimal load distribution between the objects of the grid. According to the experience of [2], different methods are usually used for forecasting electricity consumption and building customer profiles, usually based on the analysis of the time dynamics of electricity consumption and its factors, the identification of statistical relationships between features and the construction of models.

scholarly journals Statistical and Artificial Neural Networks Models for Electricity Consumption Forecasting in the Brazilian Industrial Sector

Energies ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 588
Author(s):  
Felipe Leite Coelho da Silva ◽  
Kleyton da Costa ◽  
Paulo Canas Rodrigues ◽  
Rodrigo Salas ◽  
Javier Linkolk López-Gonzales
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Statistical Approach ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Neural Network Approach ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
The One ◽  
Mlp Model

Forecasting the industry’s electricity consumption is essential for energy planning in a given country or region. Thus, this study aims to apply time-series forecasting models (statistical approach and artificial neural network approach) to the industrial electricity consumption in the Brazilian system. For the statistical approach, the Holt–Winters, SARIMA, Dynamic Linear Model, and TBATS (Trigonometric Box–Cox transform, ARMA errors, Trend, and Seasonal components) models were considered. For the approach of artificial neural networks, the NNAR (neural network autoregression) and MLP (multilayer perceptron) models were considered. The results indicate that the MLP model was the one that obtained the best forecasting performance for the electricity consumption of the Brazilian industry under analysis.

scholarly journals Minutely Active Power Forecasting Models Using Neural Networks

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 3177 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dimitrios Kontogiannis ◽  
Dimitrios Bargiotas ◽  
Aspassia Daskalopulu
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Power Systems ◽  
Demand Response ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Real World Data ◽  
Training Time ◽  
Power Forecasting

Power forecasting is an integral part of the Demand Response design philosophy for power systems, enabling utility companies to understand the electricity consumption patterns of their customers and adjust price signals accordingly, in order to handle load demand more effectively. Since there is an increasing interest in real-time automation and more flexible Demand Response programs that monitor changes in the residential load profiles and reflect them according to changes in energy pricing schemes, high granularity time series forecasting is at the forefront of energy and artificial intelligence research, aimed at developing machine learning models that can produce accurate time series predictions. In this study we compared the baseline performance and structure of different types of neural networks on residential energy data by formulating a suitable supervised learning problem, based on real world data. After training and testing long short-term memory (LSTM) network variants, a convolutional neural network (CNN), and a multi-layer perceptron (MLP), we observed that the latter performed better on the given problem, yielding the lowest mean absolute error and achieving the fastest training time.

scholarly journals Short-Term Load Forecasting of building electricity consumption using NARX Neural Networks model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Irati Zapirain Zuazo ◽  
Zina Boussaada ◽  
Naiara Aginako ◽  
Octavian Curea ◽  
Haritza Camblong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Short Term Load Forecasting
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