Including reliability index distributions in HVdc system adequacy assessment using Monte Carlo simulation

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Hou ◽  
B. Bagen ◽  
A.M. Gole
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Reliability Index ◽  
Hvdc System ◽  
Adequacy Assessment

A Parametric Unit Commitment Method for Revenue Adequacy Assessment

2007 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gianpietro Granelli ◽  
Mario Montagna ◽  
Paolo Marannino ◽  
Fabio Zanellini
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Unit Commitment ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Multivariate Normal ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Strategic Role ◽  
Adequacy Assessment ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation Program

Unit commitment (UC), originally employed to minimize the generating cost of a vertically integrated utility, has become a basic tool for revenue adequacy evaluation by GENeration COmpanies (GENCOs). The strategic role of UC is apparent in those market environments where GENCOs are asked to internalize all costs and the relevant UC decisions within their day–ahead market bids. In this paper, a parametric UC method is presented to assess the convenience of making energy bids for marginal or nearly marginal generation units. The convenience is gauged by the basis of revenue adequacy that is on each unit's ability to cover all expenses and generate profits. Beside UC choices, the parametric UC procedure provides a market price behavior that would make it profitable to commit a certain unit for generation. A Monte Carlo simulation program is employed to find the probability that actual market prices will fulfill the revenue adequacy requirements. Market prices are handled as random variables with multivariate normal distribution, taking into account the correlation between prices at successive time periods. The parametric UC procedure and the Monte Carlo simulation are carried out by using reasonable data of generation units available to some Italian GENCOs.

Piping Anti–Corrosion Coating Life Assessment

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bahman Modiri ◽  
Mohammad Pourgol Mohammad ◽  
Mojtaba Yazdani ◽  
Farzad Nasirpouri ◽  
Farzin Salehpour
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Pitting Corrosion ◽  
Probabilistic Analysis ◽  
Reliability Index ◽  
Life Assessment ◽  
Uniform Corrosion ◽  
Analysis Framework ◽  
Internal Corrosion ◽  
Corrosion Mechanisms

The pitting corrosion is influential mechanism in determining life of pipes and coatings. Many researches have been conducted on pitting corrosion in the pipelines, resulting in development of some corrosion models. For internal corrosion, there is one main mechanism and it is the uniform corrosion, because dynamic corrosion occurs inside the pipe. However outside the pipe, two corrosion mechanisms are considered for gas pipelines: i) uniform corrosion and ii) pitting corrosion. Effect of uniform corrosion is less than the pitting corrosion, so just pitting corrosion is investigated. Calculating the depth of corroded area is the most important part in this research. This parameter is calculated with two deferent equations for pitting and uniform corrosion. Monte Carlo simulation is used for sampling and calculation of the reliability index. This index is utilized for estimating of reliability. The extended probabilistic analysis framework is applied to a typical gas pipeline.

scholarly journals Applying probabilistic method base on Monte Carlo simulation to analyze slope stability on route Nha Trang - Da Lat (within Khanh Vinh district, Khanh Hoa province)

2014 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 76-85
Author(s):  
Danh Thanh Nguyen ◽  
Ngo Van Dau ◽  
Dung Quoc Ta
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Slope Stability ◽  
Soil Properties ◽  
Reliability Index ◽  
Slope Failure ◽  
Probabilistic Method ◽  
Optimal Designs ◽  
Engineering Practice ◽  
Method Base

In this paper, a Monte Carlo simulation used to analyze probabilistic slope stability. The results including: probabilistic slope failure and reliability index with respect to factor of safety under the effects of uncertainties in the parameters of soil properties. Base on this informations, geotechnical engineers how to get optimal designs to prevent slope failure. In addition, the purpose of this paper is to show that standard deviation of soil properties can be applied in simple ways, without more data, time, or effort than are commonly available in geotechnical engineering practice. Applying Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate probabilistic slope stability on route Nha Trang - Da Lat.

Reliability analysis of a cohesive slope in a spreadsheet using FOSM, FORM and Monte-Carlo Simulation

2021 ◽  
pp. 391-402
Author(s):  
Saurav Shekhar Kar ◽  
Avijit Burman ◽  
Lal Bahadur Roy
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Shear Strength ◽  
Reliability Index ◽  
Factor Of Safety ◽  
Undrained Shear Strength ◽  
Excel Spreadsheet ◽  
First Order ◽  
Reliability Method ◽  
Undrained Shear

In geotechnical engineering uncertainties arises from loads, soil characteristics and their properties, calculation models etc. To minimize these uncertainties in geotechnical problem, various reliability based and (or probabilistic based) approaches have been developed. This abstract presents a MS-Excel spreadsheet environment based practical framework for estimating the reliability index and failure probability of a cohesive finite slope using First-order second moment method, First-order reliability method and Monte Carlo Simulation. The height and the angle of slope is considered to be 5 m and 45º respectively. The inclination of the slope is 2H:1V and the hard stratum is assumed to be present at 15 m below the soil. The values of saturated unit weight and undrained shear strength are assumed to be 18 kN/m3 and 20 kPa respectively. The stability analysis is carried out using Swedish slice method under undrained condition. The excel spreadsheet developed in the study is mainly divided into two forms i.e. deterministic model worksheet for calculating the factor of safety and uncertainty model for generating the random variables of uncertain parameters. The undrained shear strength is considered as an uncertain parameter. The nominal factor of safety value is found out to be 1.248 and the critical slip circle has coordinate (2.6, 8.8), having radius of 16 m. The reliability index is found out using FOSM, FORM and MCS.

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