Ensuring long-term resilience of Highways England's geotechnical assets to severe weather events

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. Pritchard ◽  
S. Carluccio ◽  
J. Mian ◽  
D. Patterson
Keyword(s):  
Severe Weather ◽  
Weather Events

scholarly journals Severe weather over the Highveld of South Africa during November 2016

Water SA ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 44 (1 January) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lee-ann Simpson ◽  
Liesl L Dyson
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Severe Thunderstorm ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Conditional Instability ◽  
Synoptic Circulation

November months are notorious for severe weather over the Highveld of South Africa. November 2016 was no exception and a large number of severe events occurred. Very heavy rainfall, large hail and tornadoes were reported. The aim of this paper is to compare the synoptic circulation of November 2016 with the long-term mean November circulation and to investigate some sounding derived parameters. Furthermore, a few of the severe weather events are described in detail. The surface temperatures and dewpoint temperatures were found to be higher than normal resulting in increased conditional instability over the Highveld. Low-level moisture originated over the warm Mozambique Channel and the 500 hPa temperature trough was located favourably over the Highveld; further east than normal. The combination of these factors and weak steering winds resulted in flash flooding on the 9th while favourable wind shear conditions caused the development of a tornado on 15 November. The favourable circulation patterns and moisture gave rise to an atmosphere in which severe weather was a possibility, and the awareness of such factors is used as one of many tools when considering the severe weather forecast. The consideration of the daily variables derived from sounding data were good precursors for the prediction of severe thunderstorm development over the Highveld during November 2016. It is recommended that an operational meteorologist incorporates upper air sounding data into the forecasting process and not to rely on numerical prediction models exclusively.

scholarly journals The More Extreme Nature of North American Monsoon Precipitation in the Southwestern United States as Revealed by a Historical Climatology of Simulated Severe Weather Events

2017 ◽  
Vol 56 (9) ◽  
pp. 2509-2529 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thang M. Luong ◽  
Christopher L. Castro ◽  
Hsin-I Chang ◽  
Timothy Lahmers ◽  
David K. Adams ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
North American ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Climate Simulation ◽  
North American Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon Precipitation ◽  
Southwestern United States ◽  
Weather Events

AbstractLong-term changes in North American monsoon (NAM) precipitation intensity in the southwestern United States are evaluated through the use of convective-permitting model simulations of objectively identified severe weather events during “historical past” (1950–70) and “present day” (1991–2010) periods. Severe weather events are the days on which the highest atmospheric instability and moisture occur within a long-term regional climate simulation. Simulations of severe weather event days are performed with convective-permitting (2.5 km) grid spacing, and these simulations are compared with available observed precipitation data to evaluate the model performance and to verify any statistically significant model-simulated trends in precipitation. Statistical evaluation of precipitation extremes is performed using a peaks-over-threshold approach with a generalized Pareto distribution. A statistically significant long-term increase in atmospheric moisture and instability is associated with an increase in extreme monsoon precipitation in observations and simulations of severe weather events, corresponding to similar behavior in station-based precipitation observations in the Southwest. Precipitation is becoming more intense within the context of the diurnal cycle of convection. The largest modeled increases in extreme-event precipitation occur in central and southwestern Arizona, where mesoscale convective systems account for a majority of monsoon precipitation and where relatively large modeled increases in precipitable water occur. Therefore, it is concluded that a more favorable thermodynamic environment in the southwestern United States is facilitating stronger organized monsoon convection during at least the last 20 years.

scholarly journals Spatial variations in the warming trend and the transition to more severe weather in midlatitudes

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco Estrada ◽  
Dukpa Kim ◽  
Pierre Perron
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Montreal Protocol ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Jet Stream ◽  
Atmospheric Blocking ◽  
Regional Warming ◽  
Weather Events

AbstractDue to various feedback processes called Arctic amplification, the high-latitudes’ response to increases in radiative forcing is much larger than elsewhere in the world, with a warming more than twice the global average. Since the 1990’s, this rapid warming of the Arctic was accompanied by no-warming or cooling over midlatitudes in the Northern Hemisphere in winter (the hiatus). The decrease in the thermal contrast between Arctic and midlatitudes has been connected to extreme weather events in midlatitudes via, e.g., shifts in the jet stream towards the equator and increases in the probability of high-latitude atmospheric blocking. Here we present an observational attribution study showing the spatial structure of the response to changes in radiative forcing. The results also connect the hiatus with diminished contrast between temperatures over regions in the Arctic and midlatitudes. Recent changes in these regional warming trends are linked to international actions such as the Montreal Protocol, and illustrate how changes in radiative forcing can trigger unexpected responses from the climate system. The lesson for climate policy is that human intervention with the climate is already large enough that even if stabilization was attained, impacts from an adjusting climate are to be expected.

Understanding Severe Weather Events at Airport Spatial Scale

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enrico Solazzo ◽  
Pierre-Yves Tournigand ◽  
Stefano Barindelli ◽  
Valerio Guglieri ◽  
Eugenio Realini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Scale ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Weather Events

scholarly journals A Total Lightning Trending Algorithm to Identify Severe Thunderstorms

2010 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick N. Gatlin ◽  
Steven J. Goodman
Keyword(s):  
Severe Weather ◽  
Lightning Flash ◽  
Severe Thunderstorm ◽  
Critical Success ◽  
Severe Thunderstorms ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Total Lightning ◽  
Jump Algorithm ◽  
Early Indication ◽  
Critical Success Index

Abstract An algorithm that provides an early indication of impending severe weather from observed trends in thunderstorm total lightning flash rates has been developed. The algorithm framework has been tested on 20 thunderstorms, including 1 nonsevere storm, which occurred over the course of six separate days during the spring months of 2002 and 2003. The identified surges in lightning rate (or jumps) are compared against 110 documented severe weather events produced by these thunderstorms as they moved across portions of northern Alabama and southern Tennessee. Lightning jumps precede 90% of these severe weather events, with as much as a 27-min advance notification of impending severe weather on the ground. However, 37% of lightning jumps are not followed by severe weather reports. Various configurations of the algorithm are tested, and the highest critical success index attained is 0.49. Results suggest that this lightning jump algorithm may be a useful operational diagnostic tool for severe thunderstorm potential.

scholarly journals The Impact of the Storm Prediction Center's Convective Outlooks and Watches on Emergency Management Operational Planning

2021 ◽  
pp. 36-46
Author(s):  
Heather A. Cross ◽  
Dennis Cavanaugh ◽  
Christopher C. Buonanno ◽  
Amy Hyman
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Management ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Emergency Operations ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Severe Thunderstorms ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Storm Prediction ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Impact

For many emergency managers (EMs) and National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters, Convective Outlooks issued by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) influence the preparation for near-term severe weather events. However, research into how and when EMs utilize that information, and how it influences their emergency operations plan, is limited. Therefore, to better understand how SPC Convective Outlooks are used for severe weather planning, a survey was conducted of NWS core partners in the emergency management sector. The results show EMs prefer to wait until an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms is issued to prepare for severe weather. In addition, the Day 2 Convective Outlook serves as the threshold for higher, value-based decision making. The survey was also used to analyze how the issuance of different risk levels in SPC Convective Outlooks impact emergency management preparedness compared to preparations conducted when a Convective Watch is issued.

Influence of Climatic Conditions on Western Siberian Forest Fires

2020 ◽  
pp. 269-293
Author(s):  
Valentina Petrovna Gorbatenko ◽  
Marina Alexandrovna Volkova ◽  
Olga Vladimirovna Nosyreva ◽  
George Georgievich Zhuravlev ◽  
Irina Valerievna Kuzhevskaia
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Western Siberia ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
General Regularity ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Long Term Variations

Current climate changes in Russia are attended by the increase in frequency of dangerous weather events. This chapter researches long-term variations of the dangerous weather's events on Western Siberia and to reveal general regularity, which can be associated with forest fires. The researches have been carried out for the territories of southeast of Western Siberia. The duration of the fire season increases due to climate change. This is due both to the earlier snowfall and the onset of the phenological spring, and to the increase in the duration of the thunderstorm period. Thunderstorms in Siberia are a much more frequent cause of forest fires (28%) than in other territories. Wildfire frequency is correlated with air temperature and drought anomalies.

Improving Resiliency in Communications Systems in Public Transit After Severe Weather Events

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Fitzmaurice
Keyword(s):  
Storm Surge ◽  
Public Transit ◽  
Salt Water ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Communications Systems ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Passenger Trains ◽  
Subway Stations

Subway stations and tunnels typically contain many different communications systems used by a transit agency to support the safe movement of passenger trains. When these stations and tunnels are flooded with water from excessive rains or hurricane related storm surges the resulting damage to these systems, devices and associated cabling can render them ineffective or completely inoperable. This in turn leads to costly repairs and replacement programs entailing lengthy service disruptions. This paper will look at how the repair and replacement of communications systems damaged by the exposure to accumulated rain and salt water from a storm surge can be implemented so as to improve the overall system’s resiliency to future severe weather events.

Aerosols and Their Impact on Radiation, Clouds, Precipitation, and Severe Weather Events

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhanqing Li ◽  
Daniel Rosenfeld ◽  
Jiwen Fan
Keyword(s):  
Cloud Condensation Nuclei ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Radiation Budget ◽  
Atmospheric Pollutant ◽  
Complex Interactions ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Aerosol Scattering ◽  
Weather And Climate ◽  
Aerosol Cloud Interactions ◽  
A Chain

Aerosols (tiny solid or liquid particles suspended in the atmosphere) have been in the forefront of environmental and climate change sciences as the primary atmospheric pollutant and external force affecting Earth’s weather and climate. There are two dominant mechanisms by which aerosols affect weather and climate: aerosol-radiation interactions (ARIs) and aerosol-cloud interactions (ACIs). ARIs arise from aerosol scattering and absorption, which alter the radiation budgets of the atmosphere and surface, while ACIs are connected to the fact that aerosols serve as cloud condensation nuclei and ice nuclei. Both ARIs and ACIs are coupled with atmospheric dynamics to produce a chain of complex interactions with a large range of meteorological variables that influence both weather and climate. Elaborated here are the impacts of aerosols on the radiation budget, clouds (microphysics, structure, and lifetime), precipitation, and severe weather events (lightning, thunderstorms, hail, and tornadoes). Depending on environmental variables and aerosol properties, the effects can be both positive and negative, posing the largest uncertainties in the external forcing of the climate system. This has considerably hindered the ability to project future climate changes and make accurate numerical weather predictions.

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