Efficiency assessment of transport infrastructure investment within a CGE framework

In this study, a theoretical framework is developed in order to assess the viability of transport infrastructure investment in the form of High Speed Rail (HSR) by assessing, the mode choice behaviour of the passengers and the strategies of the operators, in the hypothetical scenario. Discrete choice modelling (DCM) integrated with a game theoretic approach is used to model this dynamic market scenario. DCM is incorporated to predict the mode choice behaviour of the passengers in the new scenario and the change in the existing market equilibrium and strategies of the operators due to the entry of the new mode is analysed using the game theoretic approach. The outcome of this market game will describe the strategies for operators corresponding to Nash equilibrium. In conclusion, the impact of introduction of HSR is assessed in terms of social welfare by analysing the mode choice behaviour and strategic decision making of the operators, thus reflecting on the economic viability of the transport infrastructure investment.

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Accessibility in the regional CGE framework: the effects of major transport infrastructure investments in Poland

Transportation ◽

10.1007/s11116-019-10076-w ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Bartlomiej Rokicki ◽

Eduardo A. Haddad ◽

Jonathan M. Horridge ◽

Marcin Stępniak

Keyword(s):

High Speed ◽

Positive Impact ◽

Public Funding ◽

Transport Infrastructure ◽

Infrastructure Investment ◽

Major Road ◽

Road Infrastructure ◽

Infrastructure Investments ◽

Investment Spending ◽

The Impact

AbstractSince its EU accession, Poland has invested strongly in the development of fast road transport network. As a result, the total length of modern, high-speed roads has increased from around 500 km in 2005 to over 3000 km in 2015. Yet, while the positive impact of transport infrastructure investment on overall accessibility is unquestionable there are no studies that assess its influence on economic development of particular regions. This paper applies a regional dynamic CGE model to measure the effects of big transport infrastructure investments in Polish NUTS2 regions. We use data on both investment spending and accessibility improvement (expressed as a reduction in transport margins) in order to distinguish between possible short and long term impacts. We find that there exist significant disparities in the impact between regions with high share of major road infrastructure investment undertaken by private investors and the ones that relied fully on public funding. In the case of the former, the lack of analyzed investment would lead to relatively significant decrease in real GDP or average employment. In the case of the latter, the impact of major road infrastructure investment is almost negligible.

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