2018 ◽  
Vol 45 ◽  
pp. 289-294
Author(s):  
Christos Stathopoulos ◽  
George Galanis ◽  
Nikolaos S. Bartsotas ◽  
George Kallos

Abstract. Deterministic wind power forecasts enclose an inherent uncertainty due to several sources of error. In order to counterbalance this deficiency, an analysis of the error characteristics and construction of probabilistic forecasts with associated confidence levels is necessary for the quantification of the corresponding uncertainty. This work proposes a probabilistic forecasting method using an atmospheric model, optimization techniques for addressing the temporal error dependencies and Kalman filtering for eliminating systematic errors and enhancing the symmetry-normality of the shaped error distributions. The method is applied in case studies, using real time data from four wind farms in Greece. The performance is compared against a reference method as well as other common methods showing an improvement in the predictive reliability.


2008 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 113 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Zheng ◽  
M. McDonald ◽  
D. Jeffery

GeroPsych ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 169-176 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philippe Rast ◽  
Daniel Zimprich

In order to model within-person (WP) variance in a reaction time task, we applied a mixed location scale model using 335 participants from the second wave of the Zurich Longitudinal Study on Cognitive Aging. The age of the respondents and the performance in another reaction time task were used to explain individual differences in the WP variance. To account for larger variances due to slower reaction times, we also used the average of the predicted individual reaction time (RT) as a predictor for the WP variability. Here, the WP variability was a function of the mean. At the same time, older participants were more variable and those with better performance in another RT task were more consistent in their responses.


2009 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 109-119 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ulrich W. Ebner-Priemer ◽  
Timothy J. Trull

Convergent experimental data, autobiographical studies, and investigations on daily life have all demonstrated that gathering information retrospectively is a highly dubious methodology. Retrospection is subject to multiple systematic distortions (i.e., affective valence effect, mood congruent memory effect, duration neglect; peak end rule) as it is based on (often biased) storage and recollection of memories of the original experience or the behavior that are of interest. The method of choice to circumvent these biases is the use of electronic diaries to collect self-reported symptoms, behaviors, or physiological processes in real time. Different terms have been used for this kind of methodology: ambulatory assessment, ecological momentary assessment, experience sampling method, and real-time data capture. Even though the terms differ, they have in common the use of computer-assisted methodology to assess self-reported symptoms, behaviors, or physiological processes, while the participant undergoes normal daily activities. In this review we discuss the main features and advantages of ambulatory assessment regarding clinical psychology and psychiatry: (a) the use of realtime assessment to circumvent biased recollection, (b) assessment in real life to enhance generalizability, (c) repeated assessment to investigate within person processes, (d) multimodal assessment, including psychological, physiological and behavioral data, (e) the opportunity to assess and investigate context-specific relationships, and (f) the possibility of giving feedback in real time. Using prototypic examples from the literature of clinical psychology and psychiatry, we demonstrate that ambulatory assessment can answer specific research questions better than laboratory or questionnaire studies.


2018 ◽  
Vol 30 (3) ◽  
pp. 328-338 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Bertling ◽  
Jonathan P. Weeks

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 217-222
Author(s):  
Dhio Emerko Ginting ◽  
Fani Ade Irma ◽  
Sri Rezeki Arbaningsih ◽  
Siti Hajar

WHO telah menetapkan Indonesia sebagai negara dengan jumlah perokok terbesar ketiga. Ada tiga zat kimia yang paling sangat berbahaya, yaitu tar, nikotin, karbon monoksida yang terkandung dalam rokok. Hasil penelitian di Inggris menunjukkan kepada kita bahwa kurang lebih 50% perokok yang merokok sejak remaja mengalami kematian akibat penyakit yang berhubungan dengan kebiasaan merokok mereka. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui tentang pengaruh asap rokok dengan proses kaskade clotting time. Jenis penelitian ini adalah penelitian analitik dengan menggunakan desain cross-sectional. Penelitian ini menggunakan sampel populasi laki-laki di Fakultas Kedokteran di UMSU yang diwawancara untuk mengetahui bahwa mereka merokok atau tidak, setelah itu, sampel diperiksa clotting time dan bleeding time. Data yang terkumpul dianalisis dengan uji chi-square. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan p = 0,000 bahwa ada hubungan merokok dengan clotting time dan bleeding time pada perokok berat dan sedang. Pada perokok berat dan moderat terdapat hubungan bermakna antara penurunan bleeding time dan peningkatan clotting time dengan merokok. Tidak ada hubungan antara clotting time dan merokok pada perokok ringan.


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