Sensitivity analysis: from model parameters to system behaviour

2008 ◽  
Vol 45 ◽  
pp. 177-194 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian Ingalls
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Analytical Treatment ◽  
System Behaviour ◽  
Local Case ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Nominal Parameter ◽  
Address System ◽  
Parameter Values

Sensitivity analysis addresses the manner in which model behaviour depends on model parametrization. Global sensitivity analysis makes use of statistical tools to address system behaviour over a wide range of operating conditions, whereas local sensitivity analysis focuses attention on a specific set of nominal parameter values. This narrow focus allows a complete analytical treatment and straightforward interpretation in the local case. Sensitivity analysis is a valuable tool for model construction and interpretation, and can be applied in medicine and biotechnology to predict the effect of interventions.

Simulation of Freeway Weaving Areas

2002 ◽  
Vol 1802 (1) ◽  
pp. 115-124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Skabardonis
Keyword(s):  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Sensitivity Factor ◽  
Microscopic Simulation ◽  
Lane Changing ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Design Characteristics ◽  
Predicted Values ◽  
Demand Patterns ◽  
Parameter Values

The operation of freeway weaving sections is characterized by intense lane-changing maneuvers and complex vehicle interactions that often create bottlenecks along freeway facilities. The CORSIM microscopic simulation model was applied to simulate the operation of eight realworld weaving sites in California under a wide range of operating conditions. The results indicate that CORSIM with default parameter values underpredicts the speeds in the weaving section by about 19% on average. Numerous simulation runs were made with different values of the model parameters. The following parameters were found to significantly affect the CORSIM results: ( a) car-following sensitivity factor, ( b) lane-changing aggressiveness factor, and ( c) percentage of freeway through vehicles that yield to merging traffic. The calibrated CORSIM model reasonably replicated observed traffic operations at all test sites. The predicted average speeds were within ±5 mph for most test sites. Good agreement between measured and predicted values was obtained for all the combinations of design characteristics and demand patterns.

scholarly journals Modelling Properties of an Alkaline Electrolyser

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 3073
Author(s):  
Krzysztof Górecki ◽  
Małgorzata Górecka ◽  
Paweł Górecki
Keyword(s):  
Potassium Hydroxide ◽  
Dynamic Properties ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
High Productivity ◽  
Electrolysis Process ◽  
Average Value ◽  
Current Voltage ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Current Voltage Characteristics ◽  
Parameter Values

This paper proposes a model of an electrolyser in the form of a subcircuit dedicated for SPICE. It takes into account both the electric static and dynamic properties of the considered device and is devoted to the optimisation of the parameters of the signal feeding this electrolyser, making it possible to obtain a high productivity and efficiency of the electrolysis process. Parameter values the describing current-voltage characteristics of the electrolyser take into account the influence of the concentration of the potassium hydroxide (KOH) solution. A detailed description of the structure and all the components of this model is included in the paper. The correctness of the elaborated model is verified experimentally in a wide range of changes in the value of the feeding current and concentration of the KOH solution. Some computations illustrating the influence of the amplitude, average value, duty factor, and frequency of feeding current on the productivity and efficiency of the electrolysis process are performed. On the basis of the obtained results of the investigations, some recommendations for the operating conditions of electrolysers are formulated.

Modeling bronchial circulation with application to soluble gas exchange: description and sensitivity analysis

1998 ◽  
Vol 84 (6) ◽  
pp. 2070-2088 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thien D. Bui ◽  
Donald Dabdub ◽  
Steven C. George
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Gas Exchange ◽  
Pulmonary Circulation ◽  
Blood Flow Rate ◽  
Latin Hypercube Sampling ◽  
Inert Gases ◽  
Phase Iii ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Bronchial Circulation ◽  
Wide Range

The steady-state exchange of inert gases across an in situ canine trachea has recently been shown to be limited equally by diffusion and perfusion over a wide range (0.01–350) of blood solubilities (βblood; ml ⋅ ml−1 ⋅ atm−1). Hence, we hypothesize that the exchange of ethanol (βblood = 1,756 at 37°C) in the airways depends on the blood flow rate from the bronchial circulation. To test this hypothesis, the dynamics of the bronchial circulation were incorporated into an existing model that describes the simultaneous exchange of heat, water, and a soluble gas in the airways. A detailed sensitivity analysis of key model parameters was performed by using the method of Latin hypercube sampling. The model accurately predicted a previously reported experimental exhalation profile of ethanol ( R 2= 0.991) as well as the end-exhalation airstream temperature (34.6°C). The model predicts that 27, 29, and 44% of exhaled ethanol in a single exhalation are derived from the tissues of the mucosa and submucosa, the bronchial circulation, and the tissue exterior to the submucosa (which would include the pulmonary circulation), respectively. Although the concentration of ethanol in the bronchial capillary decreased during inspiration, the three key model outputs (end-exhaled ethanol concentration, the slope of phase III, and end-exhaled temperature) were all statistically insensitive ( P > 0.05) to the parameters describing the bronchial circulation. In contrast, the model outputs were all sensitive ( P < 0.05) to the thickness of tissue separating the core body conditions from the bronchial smooth muscle. We conclude that both the bronchial circulation and the pulmonary circulation impact soluble gas exchange when the entire conducting airway tree is considered.

Application of an Improved Streamline Curvature Approach to a Modern, Two-Stage Transonic Fan: Comparison With Data and CFD

2002 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keith M. Boyer ◽  
Walter F. O’Brien
Keyword(s):  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Navier Stokes ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Two Stage ◽  
Streamline Curvature ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Improved Model ◽  
Transonic Fan ◽  
Streamline Curvature Method

A streamline curvature method with improvements to key loss models is applied to a two-stage, low aspect ratio, transonic fan with design tip relative Mach number of approximately 1.65. Central to the improvements is the incorporation of a physics-based shock model. The attempt here is to capture the effects of key flow phenomena relative to the off-design performance of the fan. A quantitative analysis regarding solution sensitivities to model parameters that influence the key phenomena over a wide range of operating conditions is presented. Predictions are compared to performance determined from overall and interstage measurements, as well as from a three-dimensional, steady, Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes method applied across the first rotor. Overall and spanwise comparisons demonstrate that the improved model gives reasonable performance trending and generally accurate results. The method can be used to provide boundary conditions to higher-order solvers, or implemented within novel approaches using the streamline curvature method to explore complex engine-inlet integration issues, such as time-variant distortion.

Application of A Monte Carlo Approach to Surface Complexation Modelling

2004 ◽  
Vol 824 ◽  
Author(s):  
M.M. Askarieh ◽  
T.G. Heath ◽  
W.M. Tearle
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Surface Complexes ◽  
Monte Carlo Approach ◽  
Ion Sorption ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Complex Models ◽  
Chemical Conditions ◽  
Parameter Values

AbstractA Monte Carlo-based approach has been adopted for development of a chemical thermodynamic model to describe the goethite surface in contact with sodium nitrate solutions. The technique involves the calculation of the goethite surface properties for the chemical conditions corresponding to each experimental data point. The representation of the surface was based on a set of model parameters, each of which was either fixed or was randomly sampled from a specified range of values. Thousands of such model representations were generated for different selected sets of parameter values with the use of the standard geochemical speciation computer program, HARPHRQ. The method allowed many combinations of parameter values to be sampled that might not be achieved with a simple least-squares fitting approach. It also allowed the dependence of the quality of fit on each parameter to be analysed. The Monte Carlo approach is most appropriate in the development of complex models involving the fitting of several datasets with several fitting parameters.Introduction of selenate surface complexes allowed the model to be extended to represent selenate ion sorption, selenium being an important radioelement in evaluation of the long-term safety of ILW disposal. The sorption model gave good agreement with a wide range of experimental sorption datasets for selenate.

Ethanol Mechanism Reduction Based on DRGEPSA Method at Various Operating Ranges

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shrabanti Roy ◽  
Omid Askari
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Error Propagation ◽  
Cfd Simulation ◽  
Reduction Process ◽  
Chemical Kinetic ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Computational Time ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Relation Graph ◽  
Future Work

Abstract Reducing the size of a detail chemical kinetic is necessary in the prospect of numerical computation. In this work a skeleton reduction is done on a detail mechanism of ethanol. The detailed ethanol mechanism used here is developed through reaction mechanism generator (RMG). The generated mechanism is validated at wide range of engine relevant operating conditions using laminar burning speed (LBS), ignition delay time (IDT) and species mole fraction calculation at different reactor conditions. This detail mechanism consists of 67 species and 1031 reactions. Though the mechanism is in a very good agreement at various operating ranges with experimental data, it is costly to use a detail mechanism for 3D computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis. To make the mechanism applicable for CFD simulation further reduction of species and reactions is essential. In this work a skeleton mechanism is generated using directed relation graph technique with error propagation and sensitivity analysis (DRGEPSA). The DRGEPSA method, works based on error calculation at user defined condition. This technique is a combination of two methods, directed relation graph with error propagation (DRGEP) and directed relation graph with sensitivity analysis (DRGASA). To ensure the wide range of applicability of the skeleton mechanism, IDT is calculated at temperature, pressure, and equivalence ratio ranges from 700–2000 K, 1–40 atm and 0.6–1.4 respectively. A 10% error estimation is considered during the process. Initially DRGEP is applied on the detail mechanism to eliminate unimportant species. Further, sensitivity analysis helps to identify and reduce more unimportant species from the mechanism. Reactions related to the deleted species are automatically removed from the mechanism in each step. The final skeleton mechanism has 42 species and 464 reactions. This skeleton mechanism is validated and compared with different IDT data for the conditions not used in reduction technique. Results of LBS and different species concentration from reactor conditions is considered for validation. The skeleton mechanism can reduce computational time by 35% for LBS and 25% for IDT calculation. For future work, this skeleton mechanism will be considered in optimum reduction process.

Systematic Parameter Estimation and Sensitivity Analysis Using a Multidimensional PEMFC Model Coupled With DAKOTA

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian Carnes ◽  
Ken S. Chen ◽  
Fangming Jiang ◽  
Gang Luo ◽  
Chao-Yang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Parameter Estimation ◽  
Proton Exchange Membrane ◽  
Computational Models ◽  
Proton Exchange ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Critical Parameters ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Two Phase ◽  
Manual Adjustment

Current computational models for proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs) include a large number of parameters such as boundary conditions, material properties, and numerous parameters used in sub-models for membrane transport, two-phase flow and electrochemistry. In order to successfully use a computational PEMFC model in design and optimization, it is important to identify critical parameters under a wide variety of operating conditions, such as relative humidity, current load, temperature, etc. Moreover, when experimental data is available in the form of polarization curves or local distribution of current and reactant/product species (e.g., O2, H2O concentrations), critical parameters can be estimated in order to enable the model to better fit the data. Sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation are typically performed using manual adjustment of parameters, which is also common in parameter studies. We present work to demonstrate a systematic approach based on using a widely available toolkit developed at Sandia called DAKOTA that supports many kinds of design studies, such as sensitivity analysis as well as optimization and uncertainty quantification. In the present work, we couple a multidimensional PEMFC model (which is being developed, tested and later validated in a joint effort by a team from Penn State Univ. and Sandia National Laboratories) with DAKOTA through the mapping of model parameters to system responses. Using this interface, we demonstrate the efficiency of performing simple parameter studies as well as identifying critical parameters using sensitivity analysis. Finally, we show examples of optimization and parameter estimation using the automated capability in DAKOTA.

Validation of a Novel Model for Shell and Tube Heat Exchangers Undergoing Crude Oil Fouling

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesco Coletti ◽  
Sandro Macchietto
Keyword(s):  
Heat Exchanger ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Process Conditions ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Fluid Temperature ◽  
Oil Companies ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Shell And Tube ◽  
Oil Fouling

Fouling in refinery heat transfer units is a major problem that affects plant’s economics, operability, safety and environmental impact. Traditional heat exchanger design methodologies based on fixed values for the fouling resistance (e.g. TEMA fouling factors) have drawn several critiques in the past 40 years and were found responsible for exacerbating fouling rather than mitigating it. The fouling factors approach is, in fact, highly empirical and neglects fouling dynamics and its dependency on process conditions. The ability of capturing such dependency is therefore pivotal to overcome traditional design limitations. A novel dynamic, distributed model for a multi–pass shell–and–tube heat exchanger undergoing crude oil fouling was recently proposed by Coletti and Macchietto. The model takes into account the exchanger geometry and configuration, the variation of fluid temperature, velocity, physical properties and fouling rate along the length of each unit and captures the interactions between the fouling layer growth and the fluid–dynamics by solving a moving boundary problem. In this paper, the model is validated over a wide range of operating conditions (i.e. temperatures and flowrates) with data from four different industrial units (2 single and 2 double shells). Geometries and process conditions used are those of two refineries belonging to major oil companies (ExxonMobil and Shell). Some model parameters are estimated for each exchanger using measurements during the first 60 days after a mechanical cleaning. The model is then used in a fully predictive mode for subsequent times. Results indicate that for all units the outlet temperatures (in °C) are predicted over extended periods (i.e. 4–16 months) with an excellent accuracy of ±1% for the tube-side and ±2% for the shell-side. It is concluded that the model can be used with confidence on a wide range of operating conditions to calculate reliable temperatures and fouling resistances.

Sensitivity Analysis of Combustion Timing of Homogeneous Charge Compression Ignition Gasoline Engines

2008 ◽  
Vol 131 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chia-Jui Chiang ◽  
Anna G. Stefanopoulou
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Homogeneous Charge Compression Ignition ◽  
Quantitative Information ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Dominant Factor ◽  
Compression Ignition ◽  
Hcci Engine ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Start Of Combustion ◽  
Homogeneous Charge

The goal of this paper is to identify the dominant factors that should be included in a control oriented model in order to predict the start of combustion in a homogeneous charge compression ignition (HCCI) engine. Qualitative and quantitative information on the individual effects of fuel and exhaust gas recirculation on the HCCI combustion is provided. Using sensitivity analysis around a wide range of operating conditions of a single-cylinder port-injection gasoline HCCI engine, we find that temperature is the dominant factor in determining the start of combustion. Charge temperature thus becomes the “spark” in a HCCI engine. Therefore, a model without the composition terms should be adequate for model based regulation of the combustion timing in a port-injection gasoline HCCI engine with high dilution from the exhaust.

Nonlinear Dynamic Model of a Two-Stage Pressure Relief Valve for Designers

2001 ◽  
Vol 124 (1) ◽  
pp. 62-66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pei-Sun Zung ◽  
Ming-Hwei Perng
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Model ◽  
Nonlinear Dynamic ◽  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Nonlinear Dynamic Model ◽  
Relief Valve ◽  
Two Stage ◽  
Pressure Relief ◽  
Wide Range

This paper presents a handy nonlinear dynamic model for the design of a two stage pilot pressure relief servo-valve. Previous surveys indicate that the performance of existing control valves has been limited by the lack of an accurate dynamic model. However, most of the existing dynamic models of pressure relief valves are developed for the selection of a suitable valve for a hydraulic system, and assume model parameters which are not directly controllable during the manufacturing process. As a result, such models are less useful for a manufacturer eager to improve the performance of a pressure valve. In contrast, model parameters in the present approach have been limited to dimensions measurable from the blue prints of the valve such that a specific design can be evaluated by simulation before actually manufacturing the valve. Moreover, the resultant model shows excellent agreement with experiments in a wide range of operating conditions.

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