scholarly journals Robust contribution of decadal anomalies to the frequency of central-Pacific El Niño

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Arnold Sullivan ◽  
Jing-Jia Luo ◽  
Anthony C. Hirst ◽  
Daohua Bi ◽  
Wenju Cai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Central Pacific El Niño ◽  
Decadal Anomalies

scholarly journals Two-year consecutive concurrences of positive Indian Ocean Dipole and Central Pacific El Niño preconditioned the 2019/2020 Australian “black summer” bushfires

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Guojian Wang ◽  
Wenju Cai
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Indian Ocean Dipole ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Greenhouse Warming ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Central Pacific El Niño ◽  
Positive Indian Ocean Dipole ◽  
The Future ◽  
Rainfall Anomalies

Abstract The 2019/20 Australian black summer bushfires were particularly severe in many respects, including its early commencement, large spatial coverage, and large number of burning days, preceded by record dry and hot anomalies. Determining whether greenhouse warming has played a role is an important issue. Here, we examine known modes of tropical climate variability that contribute to droughts in Australia to provide a gauge. We find that a two-year consecutive concurrence of the 2018 and 2019 positive Indian Ocean Dipole and the 2018 and 2019 Central Pacific El Niño, with the former affecting Southeast Australia, and the latter influencing eastern and northeastern Australia, may explain many characteristics of the fires. Such consecutive events occurred only once in the observations since 1911. Using two generations of state-of-the-art climate models under historical and a business-as-usual emission scenario, we show that the frequency of such consecutive concurrences increases slightly, but rainfall anomalies during such events are stronger in the future climate, and there are drying trends across Australia. The impact of the stronger rainfall anomalies during such events under drying trends is likely to be exacerbated by greenhouse warming-induced rise in temperatures, making such events in the future even more extreme.

scholarly journals ENSO flavors in a tree-ring δ<sup>18</sup>O record of <i>Tectona grandis</i> from Indonesia

2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 1325-1333 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Schollaen ◽  
C. Karamperidou ◽  
P. Krusic ◽  
E. Cook ◽  
G. Helle
Keyword(s):  
Tree Ring ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Central Pacific El Niño ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Proxy Records ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
El Nino Events

Abstract. Indonesia's climate is dominated by the equatorial monsoon system, and has been linked to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events that often result in extensive droughts and floods over the Indonesian archipelago. In this study we investigate ENSO-related signals in a tree-ring δ18O record (1900–2007) of Javanese teak. Our results reveal a clear influence of Warm Pool (central Pacific) El Niño events on Javanese tree-ring δ18O, and no clear signal of Cold Tongue (eastern Pacific) El Niño events. These results are consistent with the distinct impacts of the two ENSO flavors on Javanese precipitation, and illustrate the importance of considering ENSO flavors when interpreting palaeoclimate proxy records in the tropics, as well as the potential of palaeoclimate proxy records from appropriately selected tropical regions for reconstructing past variability of. ENSO flavors.

scholarly journals Predictability of Persistent Thailand Rainfall during the Mature Monsoon Season in 2011 Using Statistical Downscaling of CGCM Seasonal Prediction

2015 ◽  
Vol 143 (4) ◽  
pp. 1166-1178 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yukiko Imada ◽  
Shinjiro Kanae ◽  
Masahide Kimoto ◽  
Masahiro Watanabe ◽  
Masayoshi Ishii
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Rainy Season ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
Precipitation Pattern ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Central Pacific El Niño ◽  
Local Rainfall

Abstract Predictability of above-normal rainfall over Thailand during the rainy season of 2011 was investigated with a one-tier seasonal prediction system based on an atmosphere–ocean coupled general circulation model (CGCM) combined with a statistical downscaling method. The statistical relationship was derived using singular value decomposition analysis (SVDA) between observed regional rainfall and the hindcast of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) from the seasonal prediction system, which has an ability to forecast oceanic variability for lead times up to several months. The downscaled product of 2011 local rainfall was obtained by combining rainfall patterns derived from significant modes of SVDA. This method has the advantage in terms of flexibility that phenomenon-based statistical relationships, such as teleconnections associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean dipole (IOD), or the newly recognized central Pacific El Niño, are considered separately in each SVDA mode. The downscaled prediction initialized from 1 August 2011 reproduced the anomalously intense precipitation pattern over Indochina including northern Thailand during the latter half of the rainy season, even though the direct hindcast from the CGCM failed to predict the local rainfall distribution and intensity. Further analysis revealed that this method is applicable to the other recent events such as heavy rainfall during the rainy seasons of 2002 and 2008 in Indochina.

A decadal tropical Pacific condition unfavorable to central Pacific El Niño

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (15) ◽  
pp. 7919-7926 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenxiu Zhong ◽  
Xiao-Tong Zheng ◽  
Wenju Cai
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Central Pacific El Niño

Toward a record of Central Pacific El Niño events since 1880

2014 ◽  
Vol 119 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 379-389 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Pascolini-Campbell ◽  
D. Zanchettin ◽  
O. Bothe ◽  
C. Timmreck ◽  
D. Matei ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Central Pacific El Niño ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
El Nino Events

scholarly journals Diversity of the Madden–Julian Oscillation: Initiation Region Modulated by the Interaction between the Intraseasonal and Interannual Variabilities

2021 ◽  
Vol 34 (6) ◽  
pp. 2297-2318
Author(s):  
Daisuke Takasuka ◽  
Masaki Satoh
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Eastern Pacific ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Central Pacific El Niño ◽  
Sst Variability ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
The Difference

AbstractAs one of the aspects of the diversity of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), the modulation of initiation regions of the boreal-winter MJO is studied in terms of the relationship between intraseasonal and interannual variabilities. MJOs are categorized as those initiating in the Indian Ocean (IO), Maritime Continent (MC), and western Pacific (WP), referred to herein as IO-MJOs, MC-MJOs, and WP-MJOs, respectively. The composite analyses for each MJO category using observational data reveal that the diversity of MJO initiation regions directly results from the modulation of areas where horizontal advective premoistening efficiently occurs via intraseasonal/synoptic-scale winds. This is supported by the difference in the zonal location of equatorial intraseasonal circulations established before MJO initiation, which is related to a spatial change in background convection and associated Walker circulations forced by interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability. Compared to IO-MJOs (favored in the climatological background on average), MC-MJOs tend to be realized under the eastern-Pacific El Niño–like condition, as a result of eastward-shifted intraseasonal convection and circulation patterns induced by background suppressed convection in the eastern MC. WP-MJOs are frequently initiated under the central-Pacific El Niño–like and positive IO dipole–like conditions, in which the WP is selectively moistened with the aid of background enhanced (suppressed) convection over the WP (the southeastern IO and the central-to-eastern Pacific). This major tendency derived from sample-limited observations is verified by a set of 15-yr numerical experiments with a global nonhydrostatic MJO-permitting model under a perpetual boreal-winter condition where observation-based SSTs are prescribed.

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