scholarly journals Rapid intensification and the bimodal distribution of tropical cyclone intensity

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chia-Ying Lee ◽  
Michael K. Tippett ◽  
Adam H. Sobel ◽  
Suzana J. Camargo
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Bimodal Distribution ◽  
Rapid Intensification ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Cyclone Intensity

scholarly journals Precipitation Properties Observed during Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change

2015 ◽  
Vol 143 (11) ◽  
pp. 4476-4492 ◽  
Author(s):  
George R. Alvey III ◽  
Jonathan Zawislak ◽  
Edward Zipser
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Passive Microwave ◽  
Intensity Change ◽  
Rapid Intensification ◽  
Relative Importance ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
East Pacific ◽  
Intensity Changes ◽  
Strong Convection

Abstract Using a 15-yr (1998–2012) multiplatform dataset of passive microwave satellite data [tropical cyclone–passive microwave (TC-PMW)] for Atlantic and east Pacific storms, this study examines the relative importance of various precipitation properties, specifically convective intensity, symmetry, and area, to the spectrum of intensity changes observed in tropical cyclones. Analyses are presented not only spatially in shear-relative quadrants around the center, but also every 6 h during a 42-h period encompassing 18 h prior to onset of intensification to 24 h after. Compared to those with slower intensification rates, storms with higher intensification rates (including rapid intensification) have more symmetric distributions of precipitation prior to onset of intensification, as well as a greater overall areal coverage of precipitation. The rate of symmetrization prior to, and during, intensification increases with increasing intensity change as rapidly intensifying storms are more symmetric than slowly intensifying storms. While results also clearly show important contributions from strong convection, it is concluded that intensification is more closely related to the evolution of the areal, radial, and symmetric distribution of precipitation that is not necessarily intense.

scholarly journals The Effect of the Ocean Eddy on Tropical Cyclone Intensity

2007 ◽  
Vol 64 (10) ◽  
pp. 3562-3578 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chun-Chieh Wu ◽  
Chia-Ying Lee ◽  
I-I. Lin
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Mixed Layer ◽  
Thermal Structure ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Strong Mixing ◽  
Rapid Intensification ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The rapid intensification of Hurricane Katrina followed by the devastation of the U.S. Gulf States highlights the critical role played by an upper-oceanic thermal structure (such as the ocean eddy or Loop Current) in affecting the development of tropical cyclones. In this paper, the impact of the ocean eddy on tropical cyclone intensity is investigated using a simple hurricane–ocean coupled model. Numerical experiments with different oceanic thermal structures are designed to elucidate the responses of tropical cyclones to the ocean eddy and the effects of tropical cyclones on the ocean. This simple model shows that rapid intensification occurs as a storm encounters the ocean eddy because of enhanced heat flux. While strong winds usually cause strong mixing in the mixed layer and thus cool down the sea surface, negative feedback to the storm intensity of this kind is limited by the presence of a warm ocean eddy, which provides an insulating effect against the storm-induced mixing and cooling. Two eddy factors, FEDDY-S and FEDDY-T, are defined to evaluate the effect of the eddy on tropical cyclone intensity. The efficiency of the eddy feedback effect depends on both the oceanic structure and other environmental parameters, including properties of the tropical cyclone. Analysis of the functionality of FEDDY-T shows that the mixed layer depth associated with either the large-scale ocean or the eddy is the most important factor in determining the magnitude of eddy feedback effects. Next to them are the storm’s translation speed and the ambient relative humidity.

scholarly journals Accuracy of Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Guidance

2007 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 747-762 ◽  
Author(s):  
Russell L. Elsberry ◽  
Tara D. B. Lambert ◽  
Mark A. Boothe
Keyword(s):  
Fluid Dynamics ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Phase Iii ◽  
False Alarms ◽  
Rapid Intensification ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Intensity Forecast

Abstract Five statistical and dynamical tropical cyclone intensity guidance techniques available at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) during the 2003 and 2004 Atlantic and eastern North Pacific seasons were evaluated within three intensity phases: (I) formation; (II) early intensification, with a subcategory (IIa) of a decay and reintensification cycle; and (III) decay. In phase I in the Atlantic, the various techniques tended to predict that a tropical storm would form from six tropical depressions that did not develop further, and thus the tendency was for false alarms in these cases. For the other 24 depressions that did become tropical storms, the statistical–dynamical techniques, statistical hurricane prediction scheme (SHIPS) and decay SHIPS (DSHIPS), have some skill relative to the 5-day statistical hurricane intensity forecast climatology and persistence technique, but they also tend to intensify all depressions and thus are prone to false alarms. In phase II, the statistical–dynamical models SHIPS and DSHIPS do not predict the rapid intensification cases (≥30 kt in 24 h) 48 h in advance. Although the dynamical Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Interpolated model does predict rapid intensification, many of these cases are at the incorrect times with many false alarms. The best performances in forecasting at least 24 h in advance the 21 decay and reintensification cycles in the Atlantic were the three forecasts by the dynamical Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Model-Navy (interpolated) model. Whereas DSHIPS was the best technique in the Atlantic during the decay phase III, none of the techniques excelled in the eastern North Pacific. All techniques tend to decay the tropical cyclones in both basins too slowly, except that DSHIPS performed well (12 of 18) during rapid decay events in the Atlantic. This evaluation indicates where NHC forecasters have deficient guidance and thus where research is necessary for improving intensity forecasts.

Improving Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting With Theoretically-Based Statistical Models

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wayne H. Schubert ◽  
Mark DeMaria ◽  
Charles R. Sampson ◽  
James Cummings
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Cyclone Intensity

Real-Time Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Using COAMPS-TC

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. D. Doyle ◽  
R. M. Hodur ◽  
S. Chen ◽  
H. Jin ◽  
Y. Jin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Time Prediction
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