Climate change impacts on glaciers and runoff in Tien Shan (Central Asia)

2012 ◽  
Vol 2 (10) ◽  
pp. 725-731 ◽  
Author(s):  
Annina Sorg ◽  
Tobias Bolch ◽  
Markus Stoffel ◽  
Olga Solomina ◽  
Martin Beniston
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Tien Shan

Climate change impacts on runoff in the Ferghana Valley (Central Asia)

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (5) ◽  
pp. 707-730 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iuliia Radchenko ◽  
Yvonne Dernedde ◽  
Birgit Mannig ◽  
Hans-Georg Frede ◽  
Lutz Breuer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Ferghana Valley

Climate change impacts in Central Asia and their implications for development

2015 ◽  
Vol 17 (6) ◽  
pp. 1639-1650 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher P.O Reyer ◽  
Ilona M. Otto ◽  
Sophie Adams ◽  
Torsten Albrecht ◽  
Florent Baarsch ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
Climate Change Impacts

Glacier monitoring, capacity building and related cryospheric research in Central Asia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Hoelzle ◽  
Martina Barandun ◽  
Tomas Saks ◽  
Erlan Azisov ◽  
Abror Gafurov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Disaster Risk Reduction ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Disaster Risk ◽  
Tien Shan ◽  
Water Runoff ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Climate Services

<p>Climate change is a major challenge for humanity and the related global implications will influence and threaten future economies and livelihood of coming generations, especially in developing countries. Central Asia is one of the regions mostly vulnerable to climate change considering its hydrological constraints. Tien Shan and Pamir, are among the largest mountain systems of the world, and play a significant role in serving water to the arid and continental region. Future water resources in Central Asia depend strongly on the cryosphere, particularly on snow, glaciers and permafrost. These cryospheric components store enormous amounts of fresh water and under the ongoing climate warming, expected changes will play an important role for future water availability in the region. Recent research clearly points out that a) for current climate conditions, water release by the cryosphere, particularly glaciers, is fundamental to keep runoff sufficient during the dry summer months and b) at the end of this century the water contribution of glaciers will be drastically reduced. Certain catchments are expected to completely dry-out. This setting creates a complex set of future challenges in the domains of water management, energy production, irrigation, agriculture, environment, disaster risk reduction, security and public health and potential political tension and conflicts between the countries cannot be excluded.</p><p>Notably, climate change also poses challenges in the field of climate services, as the lack of reliable data and commitment of the governments to fully integrate their observatory systems inhibits the sustainable adaptation and development of the region. At this point, the project CICADA (Cryospheric Climate Services for improved Adaptations) is currently contributing to the improvement of the Cryospheric Climate Services in the Central Asian countries by installing modern monitoring infrastructure, by training local students and researchers and by using the collected in situ measurements in combination with remote sensing and modelling to provide climate scenarios and services for water runoff and natural hazards. This is a prerequisite to allow early planning and adaptation measures within the water resource management and disaster risk reduction sectors.</p>

Water quality in urbanized alpine catchments of Central Asia - what happens after the ice?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vadim Yapiyev ◽  
Andrew Wade ◽  
Zarina Saidaliyeva ◽  
Maria Shahgedanova ◽  
Vassiliy Kapitsa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
Drinking Water ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
Hot Spot ◽  
Monitoring Program ◽  
Tien Shan ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Snow Melt ◽  
Alpine Catchments

<p>Central Asia (CA) is considered a hot-spot for climate-change impact on the water-cycle because of a high density of glaciated, montane catchments. Of particular concern are catchments in the Tien Shan and the Pamir Mountains in the areas, where glacial-fed rivers flow past major urban centres, and in the west of Central Asia near the Caspian and Aral Seas. Climate-change studies, which focus on Central Asia, consider mainly long-term changes in air temperature and precipitation, shrinking glaciers and physical hydrology, complex transboundary water management and policy issues. While, water quality (WQ) has received much less attention yet is noted as a potential issue primarily due to exposure of heavy metals and trace elements due to glacial retreat, release of aerosols deposited in snow and ice, and the dilution of pollutants from urban and farmed areas further downstream. To fill this knowledge gap the current project ‘Solutions to secure clean water in the glacier-fed catchments of Central Asia – what happens after the ice?’ established WQ monitoring program in four CA countries. The project aims to characterise and model, in a consistent and comparable way, the impacts of climate change and diminishing cryosphere on water availability and quality in the selected glacier-fed catchments informing environmental policies and adaptation strategies and building research capacity in the region. To this end WQ sampling and measurements were established in four glacier-fed alpine catchments on rivers passing major cities: Kishi and Ulken Almaty rivers (Kazakhstan, Almaty city), Ala-Archa River (Kyrgyzstan, Bishkek city), Chirchik River (Uzbekistan, Tashkent city), Varzob (Tajikistan, Dushanbe city). The WQ monitoring programme is based on bi-weekly sampling  along river elevation profile from upstream (closer to glacierized  area) to downstream (up to a reservoir or inflow to a major river). Groundwater (urban, artesian, springs), streamwater, reservoirs have been sampled and measured for temperature, electrical conductivity (EC), total dissolved solids (TDS), pH, nitrates, phosphates in situ and in the labs by local teams. These measurements are complemented by extended analysis for cations and anions during peak of steam flow (glacier and snow melt period) and low flow season in autumn (baseflow dominated). The preliminary results show that these catchments relatively clean with potentially toxic elements not exceeding WHO drinking water values in all monitored components. The dilution effect of glacier and snow melt on streamwater in summer is reflected in EC seasonal pattern. Primary concerns are elevated nitrate concentrations in urban groundwater in three studied catchments (Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan) with median values exceeding 10 mg/L of nitrate-N (a WHO’s drinking water guidelines threshold). The intermittent spikes of high phosphates in streamwater and groundwater in Uzbekistan in the autumn, in some cases reaching more than 4 mg/L (phosphate-P) are possibly linked to fertilizers wash-out by rainfall.</p>

scholarly journals Climate change impact on crop production in Central Asian Countries

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 75-82
Author(s):  
Anna Viter ◽  
Sándor J. Zsarnóczai ◽  
László Vasa
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Farming Systems ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Arid Zones ◽  
Agricultural Producers ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Farm Model ◽  
The Impact

Increased risk due to global warming has already become embedded in agricultural decision making in Central Asia and uncertainties are projected to increase even further. Agro-ecology and economies of Central Asia are heterogeneous and very little is known about the impact of climate change at the subnational levels. The bio-economic farm model is used for ex-ante assessment of climate change impacts at sub-national levels in Central Asia. The bio-economic farm model is calibrated to ten farming systems in Central Asia based on the household survey and crop growth experiment data. The production uncertainties and the adaptation options of agricultural producers to changing environments are considered paramount in the simulations. Very large differences in climate change impacts across the studied farming systems are found. The positive income gains in large-scale commercial farms in the northern regions of Kazakhstan and negative impact in small-scale farms in arid zones of Tajikistan are likely to happen. Producers in Kyrgyzstan may expect higher revenues but also higher income volatilities in the future. Agricultural producers in Uzbekistan may benefit in the near future but may lose their income in the distant future. The negative impacts could be further aggravated in arid zones of Central Asia if irrigation water availability decline due to climate change and water demand increase in upstream regions. The scenario simulations show that market liberalization and improved commodity exchange between the countries have very good potential to cope with the negative consequences of climate change. JEL classification: Q11, Q18

scholarly journals Multiproxy evidence for abrupt climate change impacts on terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems in the Ol'khon region of Lake Baikal, central Asia

2013 ◽  
Vol 290-291 ◽  
pp. 46-56 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anson W. Mackay ◽  
Elena V. Bezrukova ◽  
John F. Boyle ◽  
Jonathan A. Holmes ◽  
Virginia N. Panizzo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
Lake Baikal ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Freshwater Ecosystems ◽  
Abrupt Climate Change

scholarly journals The Future of Water Management in Central Asia

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 2241
Author(s):  
Ronny Berndtsson ◽  
Kamshat Tussupova
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Management ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
Socioeconomic Development ◽  
Common Ground ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Political Conflict ◽  
Aral Sea ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Potential Conflict

Central Asia is an increasingly important strategic geopolitical region. During the latest decades, the region has often been identified as close to potential conflict regarding water usage. This includes the sharing of water from the Syr Darya and the Amu Darya in the Aral Sea Basin. The Aral Sea disaster has exposed a complex picture of water needs and potential political conflict. Rapid population increase together with climate change impacts are likely to further aggravate the short- and long-term future precarious situation for water management in the region. This Special Issue focuses on present and future water management issues in Central Asia in view of future climate changes and how these will affect socioeconomic development. Central Asia is, in general, water rich; however, exercising efficient and fair water management will be important in view of future population increase and climate change. At the same time, water and natural resource development is a cornerstone in all the Central Asian republics. Especially, water resources are, to a great extent, shared between all five republics. A common ground for water-sharing is, therefore, of utmost importance.

scholarly journals Improving semi-automated glacial mapping with a multi-method approach: areal changes in Central Asia

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 5433-5483
Author(s):  
T. Smith ◽  
B. Bookhagen ◽  
F. Cannon
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Tien Shan ◽  
Mountain Range ◽  
The West ◽  
Mapping Algorithm ◽  
Multi Method Approach ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Central Asia has been strongly impacted by climate change, and will continue to be impacted by diverse climate stressors in the coming decades. This study aims to decipher the impact of climate change on glaciers in the central Tien Shan Mountain Range, a large and understudied region located northeast from the Pamir Knot. To address glacier characteristics over a wide swath of Central Asia, the authors designed and implemented a glacial mapping algorithm which delineates both clean glacial ice – methods which are well documented – and glacial debris tongues, which often require extensive manual digitization. This research improves upon methods developed to automatically delineate glacial areas using spectral, topographic, velocity, and spatial relationships. The authors found that the algorithm misclassifies between 2 and 10% of glacial areas, as compared to a ~750 glacier control dataset. After validating the algorithm against multiple manually digitized control datasets, the authors applied it to a study area encompassing eight Landsat scene footprints stretching from the central Pamir through the central Tien Shan. A statistically significant, though minor, gradient in glacier area loss was found, where glaciers in the west of the study area have shrunk less than those glaciers in the east. This gradient is explained by differences in regional climate, where extratropical cyclones propagating from the west weaken and disband under continued topographic influence, as well as differences in topography, where high-elevation glaciers are thermally insulated from some of the impacts of changing temperatures in the region.

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