scholarly journals Global patterns in human consumption of net primary production

Nature ◽  
2004 ◽  
Vol 429 (6994) ◽  
pp. 870-873 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc L. Imhoff ◽  
Lahouari Bounoua ◽  
Taylor Ricketts ◽  
Colby Loucks ◽  
Robert Harriss ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Primary Production ◽  
Net Primary Production ◽  
Human Consumption ◽  
Global Patterns

scholarly journals Future supply and demand of net primary production in the Sahel

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 1191-1221 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Sallaba ◽  
Stefan Olin ◽  
Kerstin Engström ◽  
Abdulhakim M. Abdi ◽  
Niklas Boke-Olén ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Primary Production ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Net Primary Production ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Human Consumption ◽  
Demand Model ◽  
Climate Trends ◽  
Increasing Demand

Abstract. In the 21st century, climate change in combination with increasing demand, mainly from population growth, will exert greater pressure on the ecosystems of the Sahel to supply food and feed resources. The balance between supply and demand, defined as the annual biomass required for human consumption, serves as a key metric for quantifying basic resource shortfalls over broad regions.Here we apply an exploratory modelling framework to analyse the variations in the timing and geography of different NPP (net primary production) supply–demand scenarios, with distinct assumptions determining supply and demand, for the 21st century Sahel. We achieve this by coupling a simple NPP supply model forced with projections from four representative concentration pathways with a global, reduced-complexity demand model driven by socio-economic data and assumptions derived from five shared socio-economic pathways.For the scenario that deviates least from current socio-economic and climate trends, we find that per capita NPP begins to outstrip supply in the 2040s, while by 2050 half the countries in the Sahel experience NPP shortfalls. We also find that despite variations in the timing of the onset of NPP shortfalls, demand cannot consistently be met across the majority of scenarios. Moreover, large between-country variations are shown across the scenarios, in which by the year 2050 some countries consistently experience shortage or surplus, while others shift from surplus to shortage. At the local level (i.e. grid cell), hotspots of total NPP shortfall consistently occur in the same locations across all scenarios but vary in size and magnitude. These hotspots are linked to population density and high demand. For all scenarios, total simulated NPP supply doubles by 2050 but is outpaced by increasing demand due to a combination of population growth and the adoption of diets rich in animal products. Finally, variations in the timing of the onset and end of supply shortfalls stem from the assumptions that underpin the shared socio-economic pathways rather than the representative concentration pathways.Our results suggest that the UN sustainable development goals for eradicating hunger are at high risk for failure. This emphasizes the importance of policy interventions such as the implementation of sustainable and healthy diets, family planning, reducing yield gaps, and encouraging the transfer of resources to impoverished areas via trade relations.

scholarly journals Future supply and demand of net primary production in the Sahel

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Sallaba ◽  
Stefan Olin ◽  
Kerstin Engström ◽  
Abdulahakim M. Abdi ◽  
Niklas Boke-Olén ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Primary Production ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Net Primary Production ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Human Consumption ◽  
Demand Model ◽  
Representative Concentration Pathways ◽  
Increasing Demand

Abstract. In the 21st century, climate change in combination with increasing demand, mainly from population growth, will exert greater pressure on the ecosystems of the Sahel to supply food and feed resources. The balance between supply and demand (annual biomass required for human consumption) serves as a key metric for quantifying basic resource shortfalls over broad regions. Here we apply an exploratory modelling framework to analyze the variations in the timing and geography of different NPP (net primary production) supply-demand scenarios (with distinct assumptions determining supply and demand) for the 21st century Sahel. We achieve this by coupling a simple NPP supply model (forced with projections from four representative concentration pathways) with a global, reduced-complexity demand model (driven by socio-economic data and assumptions derived from five shared socio-economic pathways). For the scenario that deviates least from current socio-economic and climate trends, we find that per capita NPP outstrips its supply in the 2070s, while by 2050, half the countries in the Sahel experience NPP shortfalls. We also find that despite variations in the timing of the onset of NPP shortfalls, demand cannot consistently be met across the majority of scenarios. Moreover, large between-country variations are shown across the scenarios where by the year 2050, some countries consistently experience shortage, others surplus while yet others shift from surplus to shortage. At the local level (i.e. grid cell) hotspots of total NPP shortfall consistently occur in the same locations across all scenarios, but vary in size and magnitude. These hotspots are linked to population density and high demand. For all scenarios, total simulated NPP supply doubles by 2050 but is outpaced by increasing demand due to a combination of population growth and adoption of a diets rich in animal products. Finally, variations in the timing of onset and end of supply shortfalls stem from the assumptions that underpin the shared socio-economic pathways rather than the representative concentration pathways. Our results suggest that the UN sustainable development goals for eradicating hunger are at high risk for failure. This emphasizes the importance of policy interventions such as the implementation of sustainable and healthy diets, family planning, reducing yield gaps, and encouraging transfer of resources to impoverished areas via trade relations.

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