Long term solar activity forecasting using high-resolution time spectral analysis

Nature ◽  
1977 ◽  
Vol 266 (5598) ◽  
pp. 151-153 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. R. HILL
Radiocarbon ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Alexandra Fogtmann-Schulz ◽  
Claudia Baittinger ◽  
Christoffer Karoff ◽  
Jesper Olsen ◽  
Mads F Knudsen

ABSTRACT We present a new biennial record of radiocarbon (14C) measured in Danish oak. The new record covers the years 1251–1378 CE, thereby spanning the Grand Solar Minimum known as the Wolf Minimum. Two oak samples from every other year were measured at the AMS facility at Aarhus University (Denmark), resulting in an average precision of 1.4‰ for the record. Spectral analysis of the new record revealed two peaks at 27 and 9.1 years, which could indicate the Hale cycle was lengthened and the Schwabe cycle shortened during the Wolf Minimum, but it is also possible that the amplitude of the Schwabe cycle was too small to be accurately identified with the acquired precision of this record. The record was bandpass filtered to investigate the variability of the amplitude in different bands, which showed a dampening of the amplitude during the second half of the Wolf Minimum in bands centered on the Schwabe and the Hale cycle, respectively. A reconstruction of the solar modulation function, Φ, also showed a periodicity of ca. 9 years, and indicated that the Wolf Minimum was preceeded by one cycle of decreased solar activity.


1984 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 475-482
Author(s):  
J. A. Otaola ◽  
G. Zenteno

A power spectral analysis of the atmospheric 14C production rate (300-1900 AD) has yielded evidence of the existence of supersecular oscillations in solar activity.  The significance and stability of these oscillations is tested by reproducing the historical record.  The results of a projection into a future period show that a new Spörer type oscillation, similar to that occurred in the 15th century, will probably occur again around the year A. D. 2300.


2015 ◽  
Vol 87 (8) ◽  
pp. 4144-4151 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Frey ◽  
Fabian Rudolf ◽  
Gregor W. Schmidt ◽  
Andreas Hierlemann

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