scholarly journals The powerful influence of marks: Visual and knowledge-driven processing in hurricane track displays.

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Lace M. K. Padilla ◽  
Sarah H. Creem-Regehr ◽  
William Thompson
Keyword(s):  
Hurricane Track

Observing System Simulation Experiments to Assess the Potential Impact of New Observing Systems on Hurricane Forecasting

2015 ◽  
Vol 49 (6) ◽  
pp. 140-148 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Atlas ◽  
Lisa Bucci ◽  
Bachir Annane ◽  
Ross Hoffman ◽  
Shirley Murillo
Keyword(s):  
System Simulation ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Simulation Experiments ◽  
Nasa Goddard Space ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Goddard Space Flight Center ◽  
Hurricane Track ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Hurricane Forecasting ◽  
Observing Systems

AbstractObserving System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) are an important tool for evaluating the potential impact of new or proposed observing systems, as well as for evaluating trade-offs in observing system design, and in developing and assessing improved methodology for assimilating new observations. Extensive OSSEs have been conducted at the National Aeronautical and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) over the last three decades. These OSSEs determined correctly the quantitative potential for several proposed satellite observing systems to improve weather analysis and prediction prior to their launch; evaluated trade-offs in orbits, coverage, and accuracy for space-based wind lidars; and were used in the development of the methodology that led to the first beneficial impacts of satellite surface winds on numerical weather prediction. This paper summarizes early applications of global OSSEs to hurricane track forecasting and new experiments using both global and regional models. These latter experiments are aimed at assessing potential impact on hurricane track and intensity prediction over the oceans and at landfall.

scholarly journals Improved Hurricane Track Forecasting from the Continuous Assimilation of High Quality Satellite Wind Data

1998 ◽  
Vol 126 (5) ◽  
pp. 1248-1258 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. M. Leslie ◽  
J. F. LeMarshall ◽  
R. P. Morison ◽  
C. Spinoso ◽  
R. J. Purser ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wind Data ◽  
High Quality ◽  
Hurricane Track

scholarly journals Climatology and Interannual Variability of North Atlantic Hurricane Tracks

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (24) ◽  
pp. 5370-5381 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lian Xie ◽  
Tingzhuang Yan ◽  
Leonard J. Pietrafesa ◽  
John M. Morrison ◽  
Thomas Karl
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
The United States ◽  
Track Density ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Atlantic Hurricane ◽  
The North ◽  
Hurricane Track ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Hurricane Tracks

Abstract The spatial and temporal variability of North Atlantic hurricane tracks and its possible association with the annual hurricane landfall frequency along the U.S. East Coast are studied using principal component analysis (PCA) of hurricane track density function (HTDF). The results show that, in addition to the well-documented effects of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and vertical wind shear (VWS), North Atlantic HTDF is strongly modulated by the dipole mode (DM) of Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) as well as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO). Specifically, it was found that Atlantic SST DM is the only index that is associated with all top three empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of the Atlantic HTDF. ENSO and tropical Atlantic VWS are significantly correlated with the first and the third EOF of the HTDF over the North Atlantic Ocean. The second EOF of North Atlantic HTDF, which represents the “zonal gradient” of North Atlantic hurricane track density, showed no significant correlation with ENSO or with tropical Atlantic VWS. Instead, it is associated with the Atlantic SST DM, and extratropical processes including NAO and AO. Since for a given hurricane season, the preferred hurricane track pattern, together with the overall basinwide hurricane activity, collectively determines the hurricane landfall frequency, the results provide a foundation for the construction of a statistical model that projects the annual number of hurricanes striking the eastern seaboard of the United States.

scholarly journals Perceptions of Hurricane-Track Forecasts in the United States

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason Senkbeil ◽  
Jacob Reed ◽  
Jennifer Collins ◽  
Kimberly Brothers ◽  
Michelle Saunders ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Track Forecast ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Home Location ◽  
Hurricane Track ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Storm Characteristics ◽  
Hurricane Tracks ◽  
Hurricane Irma

AbstractHurricanes Isaac (2012), Harvey (2017), and Irma (2017) were storms with different geophysical characteristics and track forecast consistencies. Despite the differences, common themes emerged from the perception of track forecasts from evacuees for each storm. Surveys with a mixture of closed and open-ended responses were conducted during the evacuations of each storm while the storm characteristics and decision-making were fresh in the minds of evacuees. Track perception accuracy for each evacuee was quantified by taking the difference between three metrics: perceived track and official track (PT − OT), perceived track and forecast track (PT − FT), and home location and perceived track (HL − PT). Evacuees from Hurricanes Isaac and Harvey displayed a tendency to perceive hurricane tracks as being closer to their home locations than what was forecast to occur and what actually occurred. The large sample collected for Hurricane Irma provided a chance to statistically verify some of the hypotheses generated from Isaac and Harvey. Results from Hurricane Irma confirmed that evacuees expected a storm to be closer to their home locations after controlling for regional influences. Furthermore, participants with greater previous hurricane experience perceived a track as being closer to their home locations, and participants residing in zip codes corresponding with nonmandatory evacuation zones also perceived tracks as being closer to their home locations. These findings suggest that most evacuees from hurricanes in the United States appear to perceive storms as being closer to their home locations than they are and overestimate wind speeds at their homes, thus overestimating the true danger from landfalling hurricanes in many storms.

scholarly journals Increasing vertical resolution in US models to improve track forecasts of Hurricane Joaquin with HWRF as an example

2016 ◽  
Vol 113 (42) ◽  
pp. 11765-11769 ◽  
Author(s):  
Banglin Zhang ◽  
Richard S. Lindzen ◽  
Vijay Tallapragada ◽  
Fuzhong Weng ◽  
Qingfu Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Vertical Resolution ◽  
Global Forecast System ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Atlantic Basin ◽  
Hurricane Track ◽  
Environmental Prediction ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Impacts

The atmosphere−ocean coupled Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast model (HWRF) developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is used as an example to illustrate the impact of model vertical resolution on track forecasts of tropical cyclones. A number of HWRF forecasting experiments were carried out at different vertical resolutions for Hurricane Joaquin, which occurred from September 27 to October 8, 2015, in the Atlantic Basin. The results show that the track prediction for Hurricane Joaquin is much more accurate with higher vertical resolution. The positive impacts of higher vertical resolution on hurricane track forecasts suggest that National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/NCEP should upgrade both HWRF and the Global Forecast System to have more vertical levels.

A Nested Spectral Model for Hurricane Track Forecasting

1992 ◽  
Vol 120 (8) ◽  
pp. 1628-1643 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Demaria ◽  
Sim D. Aberson ◽  
Katsuyuki V. Ooyama ◽  
Stephen J. Lord
Keyword(s):  
Spectral Model ◽  
Hurricane Track

scholarly journals Impact of cloud-radiative processes on hurricane track

2010 ◽  
Vol 37 (7) ◽  
pp. n/a-n/a ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert G. Fovell ◽  
Kristen L. Corbosiero ◽  
Axel Seifert ◽  
Kuo-Nan Liou
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Processes ◽  
Hurricane Track

scholarly journals Morphological responses of the Wax Lake Delta, Louisiana, to Hurricanes Rita

Elem Sci Anth ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fei Xing ◽  
James P.M. Syvitski ◽  
Albert J. Kettner ◽  
Ehab A. Meselhe ◽  
John H. Atkinson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Continental Shelf ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Water Depth ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Shear Stresses ◽  
Hurricane Rita ◽  
Hurricane Track ◽  
Wax Lake Delta ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the morphodynamic response of a deltaic system to extreme weather events. The Wax Lake Delta (WLD) in Louisiana, USA, is used to illustrate the impact of extreme events (hurricanes) on a river-dominated deltaic system. Simulations using the open source Delft3D model reveal that Hurricane Rita, which made landfall 120 km to the west of WLD as a Category 3 storm in 2005, caused erosion on the right side and deposition on the left side of the hurricane eye track on the continental shelf line (water depth 10 m to 50 m). Erosion over a wide area occurred both on the continental shelf line and in coastal areas when the hurricane moved onshore, while deposition occurred along the Gulf coastline (water depth < 5 m) when storm surge water moved back offshore. The numerical model estimated that Hurricane Rita’s storm surge reached 2.5 m, with maximum currents of 2.0 m s–1, and wave heights of 1.4 m on the WLD. The northwestern-directed flow and waves induced shear stresses, caused erosion on the eastern banks of the deltaic islands and deposition in channels located west of these islands. In total, Hurricane Rita eroded more than 500,000 m3 of sediments on the WLD area. Including waves in the analysis resulted in doubling the amount of erosion in the study area, comparing to the wave-excluding scenario. The exclusion of fluvial input caused minor changes in deltaic morphology during the event. Vegetation cover was represented as rigid rods in the model which add extra source terms for drag and turbulence to influence the momentum and turbulence equations. Vegetation slowed down the floodwater propagation and decreased flow velocity on the islands, leading to a 47% reduction in the total amount of erosion. Morphodynamic impact of the hurricane track relative to the delta was explored. Simulations indicate that the original track of Hurricane Rita (landfall 120 km west of the WLD) produced twice as much erosion and deposition at the delta compared to a hurricane of a similar intensity that made landfall directly on the delta. This demonstrates that the wetlands located on the right side of a hurricane track experience more significant morphological changes than areas located directly on the hurricane track.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document