The constant multiplier assumption misestimates long-term sex offender recidivism rates.

2012 ◽  
Vol 36 (5) ◽  
pp. 390-393 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Wollert ◽  
Elliot Cramer
Keyword(s):  
Sex Offender ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Constant Multiplier ◽  
Sex Offender Recidivism

The issues of counteracting with resurgence of crimes: past and present trends

2019 ◽  
pp. 49-60
Author(s):  
Николай Алексеевич Коломытцев
Keyword(s):  
Case Law ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Legal Rules ◽  
Law Enforcement Officials ◽  
Crime Detection ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Judicial Errors ◽  
High Level ◽  
Detention Facilities

Наличие значительного уровня рецидива в стране напрямую связано с весьма низкой (до 47 %) раскрываемостью преступлений. Кроме того, высокий уровень рецидива преступлений свидетельствует о том, что применяемое к осужденным уголовное наказание в виде лишения свободы не всегда оказывает на них должное воспитательное и принудительное воздействие. Эта ситуация обусловлена недостатками деятельности администрации учреждений уголовно-исполнительной системы. Пробелы в законодательстве, ошибки в избрании судом вида и срока наказания сказываются на его эффективности. Рост рецидива преступлений связан и с неблагополучной жизненной ситуацией, в которой часто оказываются освобожденные от отбывания наказания. Все сказанное убедительно подтверждает актуальность и научную новизну данной работы. Целью написания данной статьи является попытка определения комплексной реализации борьбы с рецидивом преступлений. Предмет изучения рецидива преступлений определяется важностью существующих ценностей, причиняемым им ущербом и общественным резонансом в отношении этого явления. Методологическую основу работу составил метод познания, общенаучные и частнонаучные методы изучения. При этом использовались труды отечественных и зарубежных правоведов. В статье автор рассматривает историко-правовой, криминологический, уголовно-правовой и уголовно-исполнительный аспекты рецидива преступлений, анализирует законодательство и судебную практику за длительное время. Приводится понятие указанного социально-правового явления, предлагаются определенные направления его предупреждения. Статья представляет интерес для курсантов, слушателей, студентов юридических вузов, преподавателей и сотрудников правоохранительных органов. The high level of relapse in our country depends on the low crime detection rate (less than 47 %). In this context, ineffective penalization measures for offenders in prison can have an impact on recidivism rates. This fact revealed serious deficiencies in the administration of detention facilities. Gaps in legislation, judicial errors in the sentencing proceeds, incorrect type of punishment and penalty negatively affect the itseffectiveness. Difficult circumstances for discharged prisoners might cause the growth of resurgence. Thus, this article devoted to the topical and innovative issue. The aim of this article is to combat and prevent criminal activities in the area of resurgence. The subject matter of recidivism is determinated by the importance of social values, the harm inflicted, and public outcry provoked with this phenomenon. A methodological framework for this research includes the cognition method, common and private methods. The author used native and foreign scholarly writings. The author researches a historical and legal, criminological, criminal and penal reviews of relapse. He analysis legal rules and case law over a long term. “Resurgence of crimes” is defined. Some means of relapse prevention are supposed. The article might be meaningful for the students and tutors of law faculties, and also for the law enforcement officials.

Using Logistic Regression Modeling to Predict Sexual Recidivism

Sexual Abuse ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 350-377 ◽  
Author(s):  
Grant Duwe ◽  
Pamela J. Freske
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Contemporary Sample ◽  
Sex Offender Risk Assessment ◽  
Likelihood Model ◽  
High Level

This study presents the results from efforts to revise the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool–Revised (MnSOST-R), one of the most widely used sex offender risk-assessment tools. The updated instrument, the MnSOST-3, contains nine individual items, six of which are new. The population for this study consisted of the cross-validation sample for the MnSOST-R ( N = 220) and a contemporary sample of 2,315 sex offenders released from Minnesota prisons between 2003 and 2006. To score and select items for the MnSOST-3, we used predicted probabilities generated from a multiple logistic regression model. We used bootstrap resampling to not only refine our selection of predictors but also internally validate the model. The results indicate the MnSOST-3 has a relatively high level of predictive discrimination, as evidenced by an apparent AUC of .821 and an optimism-corrected AUC of .796. The findings show the MnSOST-3 is well calibrated with actual recidivism rates for all but the highest risk offenders. Although estimating a penalized maximum likelihood model did not improve the overall calibration, the results suggest the MnSOST-3 may still be useful in helping identify high-risk offenders whose sexual recidivism risk exceeds 50%. Results from an interrater reliability assessment indicate the instrument, which is scored in a Microsoft Excel application, has an adequate degree of consistency across raters (ICC = .83 for both consistency and absolute agreement).

Sex Offender Recidivism Revisited

2015 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 105-117 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bitna Kim ◽  
Peter J. Benekos ◽  
Alida V. Merlo
Keyword(s):  
Sex Offender ◽  
Sex Offender Recidivism

Megan’s Law 20 Years Later: An Empirical Analysis and Policy Review

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (7) ◽  
pp. 1028-1046 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristen M. Zgoba ◽  
Wesley G. Jennings ◽  
Laura M. Salerno
Keyword(s):  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Regression Equations ◽  
Megan's Law ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Before And After ◽  
General Recidivism

This present study examines the sexual and general recidivism rates of 547 convicted sex offenders released before and after the enactment of Megan’s Law in New Jersey. Presenting the longest Megan’s Law evaluation, participants were followed for an average of 15 years after release (range = 10-29 years). Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression equations were estimated to identify covariates significantly associated with both sexual and general recidivism. Group-based trajectories of general recidivism within the 10 years post–prison release were also estimated and compared according to pre–Megan’s Law and post–Megan’s Law release status. No differences in recidivism rates were noted between the cohorts, but differences emerged in the offending trajectories of the high-risk group of offenders within 10 years of release. These results highlight the lack of impact that sex offender registration and notification (SORN) laws have on sexual and general reoffending rates postrelease.

Sex Offender Risk Assessment and the Law

1996 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 343-377 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip H. Witt ◽  
Joseph DelRusso ◽  
Jessica Oppenheim ◽  
Glenn Ferguson
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Sexual Interest ◽  
Clinical Prediction ◽  
Current Application ◽  
Sex Offender Risk Assessment ◽  
Specific Factors ◽  
Sex Offender Recidivism ◽  
A Current

After discussing the historical, legal, and criminal justice context, the article reviews risk assessment principles for sex offenders. Issues of actuarial vs. clinical prediction, base-rate considerations, and duration of prediction are reviewed. The article next addresses specific factors found to predict sex offender recidivism, factors such as indicators of deviant sexual interest and an antisocial, psychopathic lifestyle. Finally, the article provides a current application in the form of New Jersey's Registrant Risk Assessment Scale to illustrate the risk assessment principles.

Similar Predictive Accuracy of the Static-99R Risk Tool for White, Black, and Hispanic Sex Offenders in California

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (9) ◽  
pp. 1125-1140 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seung C. Lee ◽  
R. Karl Hanson
Keyword(s):  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Ethnic Groups ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Cultural Bias ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Assessment Procedures

Although considerable research has found overall moderate predictive validity of Static-99R, a sex offender risk prediction tool, relatively little research has addressed its potential for cultural bias. This prospective study evaluated the predictive validity of Static-99R across the three major ethnic groups (White, n = 789; Black, n = 466; Hispanic, n = 719) in the state of California. Static-99R was able to discriminate recidivists from nonrecidivists among White, Black, and Hispanic sex offenders (all area under the curve [AUC] values >.70; odds ratios >1.39). Base rates (at a Static-99R score of 2) with a fixed 5-year follow-up across ethnic groups were very similar (2.4%-3.0%) but were significantly lower than the norms (5.6%). The current findings support the use of Static-99R in risk assessment procedures for sex offenders of White, Black, and Hispanic heritage, but it should be used with caution in estimating absolute sexual recidivism rates, particularly for Hispanic sex offenders.

A longitudinal examination of sex offender recidivism prior to and following the implementation of SORN

2011 ◽  
Vol 30 (3) ◽  
pp. 308-328 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Tewksbury ◽  
Wesley G. Jennings ◽  
Kristen M. Zgoba
Keyword(s):  
Sex Offender ◽  
Sex Offender Recidivism ◽  
Longitudinal Examination
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