An analysis of a logical consistency model of belief change.

1970 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 133-143 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sam G. McFarland ◽  
Donald L. Thistlethwaite
Keyword(s):  
Belief Change ◽  
Logical Consistency ◽  
Consistency Model

Rational Defeasible Belief Change

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giovanni Casini ◽  
Thomas Meyer ◽  
Ivan Varzinczak
Keyword(s):  
Belief Change ◽  
Nonmonotonic Reasoning ◽  
Logical Consistency ◽  
Iterated Revision ◽  
Reasoning System ◽  
Classical Work ◽  
Formal Framework ◽  
Important Notion ◽  
Iterated Contraction ◽  
Recent Attention

We present a formal framework for modelling belief change within a nonmonotonic reasoning system. Belief change and non-monotonic reasoning are two areas that are formally closely related, with recent attention being paid towards the analysis of belief change within a non-monotonic environment. In this paper we consider the classical AGM belief change operators, contraction and revision, applied to a defeasible setting in the style of Kraus, Lehmann, and Magidor. The investigation leads us to the consideration of the problem of iterated change, generalising the classical work of Darwiche and Pearl. We characterise a family of operators for iterated revision, followed by an analogous characterisation of operators for iterated contraction. We start considering belief change operators aimed at preserving logical consistency, and then characterise analogous operators aimed at the preservation of coherence—an important notion within the field of logic-based ontologies.

A Longitudinal Study of Mental Health in Emerging Adults

2014 ◽  
Vol 73 (3) ◽  
pp. 135-141 ◽  
Author(s):  
Monica S. Bachmann ◽  
Hansjörg Znoj ◽  
Katja Haemmerli
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Longitudinal Study ◽  
Emerging Adults ◽  
Poor Mental Health ◽  
Need Satisfaction ◽  
Computer Assisted ◽  
Consistency Model ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Cross ◽  
Health Model

Emerging adulthood is a time of instability. This longitudinal study investigated the relationship between mental health and need satisfaction among emerging adults over a period of five years and focused on gender-specific differences. Two possible causal models were examined: (1) the mental health model, which predicts that incongruence is due to the presence of impaired mental health at an earlier point in time; (2) the consistency model, which predicts that impaired mental health is due to a higher level of incongruence reported at an earlier point in time. Emerging adults (N = 1,017) aged 18–24 completed computer-assisted telephone interviews in 2003 (T1), 2005 (T2), and 2008 (T3). The results indicate that better mental health at T1 predicts a lower level of incongruence two years later (T2), when prior level of incongruence is controlled for. The same cross-lagged effect is shown for T3. However, the cross-lagged paths from incongruence to mental health are marginally associated when prior mental health is controlled for. No gender differences were found in the cross-lagged model. The results support the mental health model and show that incongruence does not have a long-lasting negative effect on mental health. The results highlight the importance of identifying emerging adults with poor mental health early to provide support regarding need satisfaction.

“Analytical Techniques for Development Planning” (A Review Of Tims' Multisector Model For Pakistan'S Third Plan (1965-70))

1968 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 240-263
Author(s):  
Azizur Rahman Khan
Keyword(s):  
Analytical Techniques ◽  
Development Planning ◽  
General Idea ◽  
Relative Prices ◽  
Scarce Resources ◽  
Sectoral Output ◽  
Consistency Model ◽  
Present Decade ◽  
Optimizing Model ◽  
Multisector Model

In the present decade there has been a great proliferation of multisectoral models for planning. Part of the incentive has certainly been the potentiality of their application in formulating the actual plans. By now there have been so many different types of multisectoral models that it is useful to attempt some kind of classification according as whether or not they embody certain well-known features. The advantage of such a classification is that one gets a general idea about the structure of the model simply by knowing where it belongs in the list of classification. One broad principle of classification is based on whether the model simply provides a consistent plan or whether it also satisfies some criteria of optimality. A multisectoral consistency model provides an allocation of the scarce resources (e.g., investment and foreign exchange) in such a way that the sectoral output levels are consistent with some given consumption or income target, consistency in this context meaning that the supply of each sector's output is matched by demand generated by intersectoral and final use at base-year relative prices. To the extent that the targets are flexible, there may be many such feasible plans. An optimizing model finds the "best" possible allocation of resources among sectors, the "best" being understood in the sense of maximiz¬ing > a given preference function subject to the constraints that ensure that the plan is also feasible.

scholarly journals Policy learning as complex contagion: how social networks shape organizational beliefs in forest-based climate change mitigation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antti Gronow ◽  
Maria Brockhaus ◽  
Monica Di Gregorio ◽  
Aasa Karimo ◽  
Tuomas Ylä-Anttila
Keyword(s):  
Social Network ◽  
Social Influence ◽  
Belief Change ◽  
Forest Degradation ◽  
Policy Learning ◽  
Policy Network ◽  
Policy Problem ◽  
Perceived Need ◽  
Organizational Beliefs ◽  
Policy Subsystems

AbstractPolicy learning can alter the perceptions of both the seriousness and the causes of a policy problem, thus also altering the perceived need to do something about the problem. This then allows for the informed weighing of different policy options. Taking a social network perspective, we argue that the role of social influence as a driver of policy learning has been overlooked in the literature. Network research has shown that normatively laden belief change is likely to occur through complex contagion—a process in which an actor receives social reinforcement from more than one contact in its social network. We test the applicability of this idea to policy learning using node-level network regression models on a unique longitudinal policy network survey dataset concerning the Reducing Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) initiative in Brazil, Indonesia, and Vietnam. We find that network connections explain policy learning in Indonesia and Vietnam, where the policy subsystems are collaborative, but not in Brazil, where the level of conflict is higher and the subsystem is more established. The results suggest that policy learning is more likely to result from social influence and complex contagion in collaborative than in conflictual settings.

Answers and Questions: Evans-Pritchard On Nuer Religion

1983 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 167-186 ◽  
Author(s):  
John W. Burton
Keyword(s):  
Catholic Church ◽  
Logical Consistency ◽  
Anthropological Study ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Many ◽  
The Catholic Church

AbstractIf my discernment of the thought that underlies his study of Nuer religion is not entirely misconstrued, then one can assert a logical consistency between Collingwood's methodology for history and Evans-Pritchard's for ethnography. It is worthwhile, in that light, to consider the fact that "at one time Evans-Pritchard contemplated writing Collingwood's biography" (Beidelman 1974:559). One commentator, (Kuper 1980:118) typifies this methodology as "postwar idealism" and suggests that the major works he published in the later decades of his presence at Oxford demonstrate the "sterility" of his methodology and theory. Still others have hinted that his entry into the Catholic Church was later reflected in his depiction of Nuer religous life. These are remarkable assertions, when one takes the time to reflect on the many ways in which his own approach and writings have so profoundly influenced the direction of anthropological enquiry in his own country and abroad. The fact is, one can no longer write ethnography in lieu of a solid understanding of the historical circumstances which have resulted in the contemporary 'ethnographic present'. At the same time, practitioners of the discipline have addressed from almost every angle the proposition that all ethnography is indeed a good part confession-that we write what we are able to see. That is precisely the quality of the work that will guarantee the status of Nuer religion as a classic. The methods of history and anthropology can only become more similar. Anyone who holds an absence of definition or presumed repugnance toward theory as criticisms of his contributions, has truly lost the forest for the trees. It is all the more remarkable that his methodological and theoretical advances in the anthropological study of religion are to be found not in his answers, but in the questions he raised.10

scholarly journals Assessment of changes in efficacy of antimalarials: a systematic review and network meta-regression

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
S W Youdom ◽  
R S Tchouenkou ◽  
E-P Ndong-Nguema ◽  
L K Basco
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Uncomplicated Malaria ◽  
Data Science ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Inclusion Criteria ◽  
Antimalarial Drug Resistance ◽  
Consistency Model ◽  
Meta Regression ◽  
Methodological Studies

Abstract Background The fight against diseases such as malaria requires the synthesis of evidence from existing studies to inform decision makers. Indeed, at a cross road of antimalarial drug resistance, several artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACT) with multiple doses are available to fight uncomplicated malaria. However, little is known on how these combinations are combined as well as how different formulations are tested. Methods A systematic review was performed to identify randomized trials. Articles were sought by hand-searching and scanning references. Additional covariates effect on treatment outcome was assessed, and a modeling approach to reduce heterogeneity among trials was evaluated. We explored one single interaction effect for all treatment with age as the main covariate in a meta-regression. A Bayesian analysis was used to implement the consistency and inconsistency models under the WinBUGS software. Ranking measure was used to obtain a hierarchy of the competing interventions. Results In total, 77 articles meet the inclusion criteria with 15 combinations tested in 36,000 patients. Results were compared to that of frequentist approach and presented according to the Prisma NMA checklist. The consistency model showed a good performance than the inconsistency model under the hypothesis of homogeneity. It was found that compared to artemether-lumefantrine, the dihydro-artemisinin-piperaquine was more effective before (B, OR = 1.83; 95% CI = 1.31-2.56) and after (A, OR = 1.70; 95% CI = 1.20-2.43) covariate adjustment, and occupied the top rank. Conclusions The application of the methods described here may be helpful to gain better understanding of treatment efficacy and improve future decisions in malaria programs. Based on the available evidence, this study demonstrated the superiority of DHAP among currently recommended ACT in preventing as well as treating uncomplicated malaria. Key messages Choosing the best therapy requires data triangulation and data science. Network meta-analysis could be a solution but need more methodological studies.

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