Group versus individual probability judgment: Accuracy and process

1991 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Frank Yates ◽  
Hun-Tong Tan
Keyword(s):  
Group Versus ◽  
Probability Judgment ◽  
Judgment Accuracy ◽  
Individual Probability

Probability judgment accuracy: China, Japan, and the United States

1989 ◽  
Vol 43 (2) ◽  
pp. 145-171 ◽  
Author(s):  
J.Frank Yates ◽  
Ying Zhu ◽  
David L Ronis ◽  
Deng-Feng Wang ◽  
Hiromi Shinotsuka ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Probability Judgment ◽  
Judgment Accuracy

scholarly journals Improving Probability Judgment in Intelligence Analysis: From Structured Analysis to Statistical Aggregation

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher W. Karvetski ◽  
David R. Mandel ◽  
Daniel Irwin
Keyword(s):  
Bayes Theorem ◽  
Probability Judgment ◽  
Intelligence Analysis ◽  
Judgment Accuracy ◽  
Probability Judgments ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Structured Analysis ◽  
Competing Hypotheses ◽  
Improving Accuracy ◽  
Support Methods

As in other areas of expert judgment, intelligence analysis often requires judging the probability that hypotheses are true. Intelligence organizations promote the use of structured methods such as “Analysis of Competing Hypotheses” (ACH) to improve judgment accuracy and analytic rigor, but these methods have received little empirical testing. In this experiment, we pitted ACHagainst a factorized Bayes theorem (FBT) method, and we examined the value of recalibration (coherentization) and aggregation methods for improving the accuracy of probability judgment. Analytic techniques such as ACH and FBT were ineffective in improving accuracy and handling correlated evidence, and ACH in fact decreased the coherence of probability judgments. In contrast, statistical post-analytic methods (i.e., coherentization and aggregation) yielded large accuracy gains. A wide range of methods for instantiating these techniques were tested. The interactions among the factors considered suggest that prescriptive theorists and interventionists should examine the value of ensembles of judgment-support methods.

scholarly journals Culture and Probability Judgment Accuracy

2011 ◽  
Vol 42 (6) ◽  
pp. 1054-1065 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julia Lechuga ◽  
John S. Wiebe
Keyword(s):  
Probability Judgment ◽  
Judgment Accuracy

Cross-Cultural Variations in Probability Judgment Accuracy: Beyond General Knowledge Overconfidence?

1998 ◽  
Vol 74 (2) ◽  
pp. 89-117 ◽  
Author(s):  
J.Frank Yates ◽  
Ju-Whei Lee ◽  
Hiromi Shinotsuka ◽  
Andrea L Patalano ◽  
Winston R Sieck
Keyword(s):  
Cross Cultural ◽  
Probability Judgment ◽  
General Knowledge ◽  
Judgment Accuracy ◽  
Cultural Variations
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