Decision making in severe weather uncertainty

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jared E. LeClerc ◽  
Susan Joslyn
2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leigh A. Baumgart ◽  
Ellen J. Bass ◽  
Brenda Philips ◽  
Kevin Kloesel

Author(s):  
Thomas Kox ◽  
Catharina Lüder

AbstractThis article presents the results of a series of ethnographic observations at the Berlin fire brigade control and dispatch center during routine and severe weather situations. The weather-related challenges of a fire brigade lie between the anticipation of events and their potential consequences, and the ad hoc reactions to actual impacts of weather. The results show that decisions and actions related to high impact weather are not necessarily motivated by weather warnings alone. Instead, they are reactions to the experience of impacts, for example, an increased number of missions or emergency calls. Impacts are the main trigger for the decision making. Weather is one additional external factor that influences the operational capability of a fire brigade. While commanding officers in a fire brigade control and dispatch center experience weather primarily through technical equipment, verified by ground truth, observations showed that direct personal contact with the regional weather service and colleagues on the ground takes on a greater role in actual severe weather situations. The observations point to the need for increased interagency communication between the emergency services, the weather service, and other organizations to integrate weather information, impacts, and non-weather-related tasks into coherent weather-related decision making.


2009 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 209-227 ◽  
Author(s):  
Limor Nadav-Greenberg ◽  
Susan L. Joslyn

The objective of this research was to evaluate the impact of weather uncertainty information on decision making in naturalistic settings. Traditional research often reveals deficits in human decision making under uncertainty as compared with normative models of rational choice. However, little research has addressed the question of whether people in naturalistic settings make better decisions when they have uncertainty information as compared with when they have only a deterministic forecast. Two studies investigated the effect of several types of weather uncertainty information on the quality of decisions to protect roads against icing and on temperature predictions and compared them with a control condition that provided deterministic forecast only. Experiment 1 was a Web-based questionnaire that included a single trial. Experiment 2, conducted in lab, included 120 trials and provided outcome feedback and a reward based on performance. Both studies indicated enhanced performance with uncertainty information. The best kind of uncertainty information tested here was the one that provided the probability at the threshold for the task at hand. We conclude that uncertainty information can be used advantageously, even when it does not result in perfectly rational performance, and that uncertainty can be communicated effectively to nonexpert end users, resulting in improved decision making.


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