You've Got to Know When to Hold 'em: Optimism Bias & Gambling

Grim Prognosis Often Meets ‘Optimism Bias’

Hospitalist News ◽

10.1016/s1875-9122(12)70074-3 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 5 (3) ◽

pp. 25

Author(s):

MARY ANN MOON

Keyword(s):

Optimism Bias

Download Full-text

Watching others in a positive state does not induce optimism bias in common marmosets (Callithrix jacchus), but leads to behaviour indicative of competition

Animal Cognition ◽

10.1007/s10071-021-01497-1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

J. E. C. Adriaense ◽

V. Šlipogor ◽

S. Hintze ◽

L. Marshall ◽

C. Lamm ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Emotional Contagion ◽

Negative Control ◽

Emotional States ◽

Common Marmosets ◽

Optimism Bias ◽

Negative State ◽

Group Life ◽

Judgement Bias ◽

Negative Condition ◽

Positive State

AbstractEmotional contagion is suggested to facilitate group life by enhancing synchronized responses to the environment. Cooperative breeders are an example of a social system that requires such intricate coordination between individuals. Therefore, we studied emotional contagion in common marmosets by means of a judgement bias test. Demonstrators were exposed to an emotion manipulation (i.e., positive, negative, control), and observers perceived only the demonstrator’s behaviour. We predicted that the positive or negative states of the demonstrator would induce matching states in the observer, indicating emotional contagion. All subjects’ emotional states were assessed through behaviour and cognition, the latter by means of a judgement bias test. Behavioural results showed a successful emotion manipulation of demonstrators, with manipulation-congruent expressions (i.e., positive calls in the positive condition, and negative calls and pilo-erect tail in the negative condition). Observers showed no manipulation-congruent expressions, but showed more scratching and arousal after the positive manipulation. Concerning the judgement bias test, we predicted that subjects in a positive state should increase their response to ambiguous cues (i.e., optimism bias), and subjects in a negative state should decrease their response (i.e., pessimism bias). This prediction was not supported as neither demonstrators nor observers showed such bias in either manipulation. Yet, demonstrators showed an increased response to the near-positive cue, and additional analyses showed unexpected responses to the reference cues, as well as a researcher identity effect. We discuss all results combined, including recently raised validation concerns of the judgement bias test, and inherent challenges to empirically studying emotional contagion.

Download Full-text

Curbing Optimism Bias and Strategic Misrepresentation in Planning: Reference Class Forecasting in Practice

European Planning Studies ◽

10.1080/09654310701747936 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 16 (1) ◽

pp. 3-21 ◽

Cited By ~ 156

Author(s):

Bent Flyvbjerg

Keyword(s):

Reference Class ◽

Optimism Bias

Download Full-text

E-waste information security protection motivation: the role of optimism bias

Information Technology and People ◽

10.1108/itp-09-2019-0458 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽

Author(s):

Hao Chen ◽

Ofir Turel ◽

Yufei Yuan

Keyword(s):

Information Security ◽

Risk Behavior ◽

Equation Modeling ◽

Perceived Threat ◽

Protection Motivation ◽

Security Risk ◽

Content Type ◽

Optimism Bias ◽

Information Security Risk

PurposeElectronic waste (e-waste) such as discarded computers and smartphones may contain large amounts of confidential data. Improper handling of remaining information in e-waste can, therefore, drive information security risk. This risk, however, is not always properly assessed and managed. The authors take the protection motivation theory (PMT) lens of analysis to understand intentions to protect one's discarded electronic assets.Design/methodology/approachBy applying structural equation modeling, the authors empirically tested the proposed model with survey data from 348 e-waste handling users.FindingsResults highlight that (1) protection intention is influenced by the perceived threat of discarding untreated e-waste (a threat appraisal) and self-efficacy to treat the discarded e-waste (a coping appraisal) and (2) optimism bias plays a dual-role in a direct and moderating way to reduce the perceived threat of untreated e-waste and its effect on protection intentions.Originality/valueResults support the assertions and portray a unique theoretical account of the processes that underline people's motivation to protect their data when discarding e-waste. As such, this study explains a relatively understudied information security risk behavior in the e-waste context, points to the role of optimism bias in such decisions and highlights potential interventions that can help to alleviate this information security risk behavior.

Download Full-text

Managing megaprojects: conceptual framework and international experience

10.18235/0003887 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Simon Groom ◽

Edna Armendáriz

Keyword(s):

Latin America ◽

United Kingdom ◽

Conceptual Framework ◽

International Experience ◽

Institutional Arrangements ◽

Discussion Paper ◽

Optimism Bias ◽

Delivery Performance ◽

The United Kingdom

The discussion paper analyzes international experience in megaproject management, identifying problems and delivery performance. The most important distortions are optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation. it explores the approaches of Norway and the United Kingdom. Both countries have strengthened the robustness of planning and appraisal for megaprojects and have established specific methods and institutional arrangements for these projects to strengthen governance and transparency. Finally, some lessons are put forward that could help other countries, especially in Latin America, when embarking on megaprojects.

Download Full-text

Comparing personal and social optimism biases: magnitude, overlap, modifiability, and links with social identification and expertise

Humanities and Social Sciences Communications ◽

10.1057/s41599-021-00913-8 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 8 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Tatjana Aue ◽

Mihai Dricu ◽

Dominik A. Moser ◽

Boris Mayer ◽

Stephanie Bührer

Keyword(s):

Prior Experience ◽

Social Groups ◽

Social Identification ◽

Optimism Bias ◽

Social Forms ◽

Objective Feedback ◽

Personal Optimism ◽

Partial Overlap

AbstractIndividuals are more optimistic about their own future than a comparable person’s future (personal optimism bias). In addition, they show overoptimism toward people or social groups they identify with compared with those they do not identify with (social optimism bias). However, commonalities and differences between personal and social forms of optimism bias remain to be addressed. Data from an experiment on anticipated performances in soccer (including 160 participants), revealed (a) comparable magnitudes of personal and social optimism biases, and (b) only partial overlap between personal and social optimism biases. We further found the magnitude of the biases to depend on (c) prior experience in the investigated area. Social optimism bias, however, did not correlate with (d) the extent to which the participants identified with a social in-group. In addition, we demonstrate that (e) despite the availability of objective feedback, both personal and social optimism biases are hard to overcome. Our data further suggest (f) the existence of qualitatively different social optimism biases; biases that can possibly be distinguished by their degree of automaticity or the adoption of a more affective vs. utilitarian stance. Consequently, the present research reveals that the phenomenon of social optimism bias needs further refinement to adequately address its specific sub-components.

Download Full-text