Order effects in probabilistic diagnostic reasoning

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Franziska Bocklisch ◽  
Josef F. Krems
Keyword(s):  
Diagnostic Reasoning ◽  
Order Effects

Biased Processing of Ambiguous Symptoms Favors the Initially Leading Hypothesis in Sequential Diagnostic Reasoning

2015 ◽  
Vol 62 (5) ◽  
pp. 287-305 ◽  
Author(s):  
Felix G. Rebitschek ◽  
Franziska Bocklisch ◽  
Agnes Scholz ◽  
Josef F. Krems ◽  
Georg Jahn
Keyword(s):  
Final Diagnosis ◽  
Order Effect ◽  
Diagnostic Reasoning ◽  
Response Mode ◽  
Primacy Effect ◽  
Order Effects ◽  
Information Distortion ◽  
Multiple Hypotheses ◽  
Response Modes ◽  
Biased Processing

Abstract. In sequential diagnostic reasoning, observed pieces of evidence activate hypotheses in memory and are integrated to reach a final diagnosis. The order of evidence can influence diagnostic reasoning. This article examines the processing of ambiguous evidence underlying order effects if multiple hypotheses are activated. In five experiments with a quasi-medical scenario, participants dealt with symptom sequences supporting multiple diagnoses. The symptom order, the response mode (end-of-sequence, step-by-step), and the consistency of evidence were manipulated. A primacy order effect occurred with both response modes suggesting that ambiguous pieces of evidence were distorted toward the hypothesis that strongly corresponded with the first piece. The primacy effect was partially counteracted by stepwise belief ratings, which strengthened the weight of recent evidence and promoted switching to an alternative diagnosis. We conclude that once hypotheses are generated, the interplay of coherence-oriented information distortion and memory-dependent analytic processes propagates into distinct order effects in diagnoses.

Potential Task Order Effects in Computer Test Batteries (Summary)

1997 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Czarnolewski ◽  
John Eliot ◽  
Jennifer Rinehart
Keyword(s):  
Order Effects ◽  
Task Order

The Time Course of Hypothesis Activation During Diagnostic Reasoning

2007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Baumann ◽  
Katja Mehlhorn ◽  
Franziska Bocklisch ◽  
Georg Jahn ◽  
Josef F. Krems
Keyword(s):  
Time Course ◽  
Diagnostic Reasoning

Short-range order effects in amorphous FexSi1-x/Si multilayers induced by preparation conditions

1998 ◽  
Vol 08 (PR2) ◽  
pp. Pr2-175-Pr2-178 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. T. Pérez ◽  
F. H. Salas ◽  
R. Morales ◽  
L. M. Álvarez-Prado ◽  
J. M. Alameda
Keyword(s):  
Short Range ◽  
Short Range Order ◽  
Range Order ◽  
Order Effects ◽  
Preparation Conditions

Determination of Combined and Second Order Factor Effects for Simultaneous Optimization of Physical and Mechanical Properties of NR/BR Blend System

2014 ◽  
Vol 42 (4) ◽  
pp. 290-304
Author(s):  
Rajarajan Aiyengar ◽  
Jyoti Divecha
Keyword(s):  
Physical And Mechanical Properties ◽  
Second Order ◽  
Simultaneous Optimization ◽  
Order Effects ◽  
Elongation At Break ◽  
Five Factors ◽  
Rubber Compounds ◽  
Polybutadiene Rubber ◽  
Contour Plots

ABSTRACT The blends of natural rubber (NR), polybutadiene rubber (BR), and other forms of rubbers are widely used for enhancing the mechanical and physical properties of rubber compounds. Lots of work has been done in conditioning and mixing of NR/BR blends to improve the properties of its rubber compounds and end products such as tire tread. This article employs response surface methodology designed experiments in five factors; high abrasion furnace carbon black (N 330), aromatic oil, NR/BR ratio, sulfur, and N-oxydiethylene-2-benzothiazole sulfenamide for determination of combined and second order effects of the significant factors leading to simultaneous optimization of the NR/BR blend system. One of the overall optimum of eight properties existed at carbon 44 phr, oil 6.1 phr, NR/BR 78/22 phr with the following values of properties: tensile strength (22 MPa), elongation at break (528%), tear resistance (30 kg/mm), rebound resilience (67%), moderate hardness (68 International rubber hardness degrees) with low heat buildup (17 °C), permanent set (12%), and abrasion loss (57 mm3). More optimum combinations can easily be determined from the NR/BR blend system models contour plots.

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