Risks to Life: Perceived and Actuarial Risk and Revenue Allocation

Previous research has shown that mock and actual jurors give little weight to actuarial sexual offending recidivism risk estimates when making decisions regarding civil commitment for so-called sexually violent predators (SVPs). We hypothesized that non-risk related factors, such as irrelevant contextual information and jurors’ information-processing style, would influence mock jurors’ perceptions of sexual recidivism risk. This preregistered experimental study examined the effects of mock jurors’ (N = 427) need for cognition (NFC), irrelevant contextual information in the form of the offender’s social attractiveness, and an actuarial risk estimate on mock jurors’ estimates of sexual recidivism risk related to a simulated SVP case vignette. Mock jurors exposed to negative risk-irrelevant characteristics of the offender estimated sexual recidivism risk as higher than mock jurors exposed to positive information about the offender. However, this effect was no longer significant after mock jurors had reviewed Static-99R actuarial risk estimate information. We found no support for the hypothesis that the level of NFC moderates the relationship between risk-irrelevant contextual information and risk estimates. Future research could explore additional individual characteristics or attitudes among mock jurors that may influence perceptions of sexual recidivism risk and insensitivity to actuarial risk estimates.

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The Optimal Operation and Revenue Allocation Method of Virtual Power Plant Considering Carbon Trading

2020 IEEE 4th Conference on Energy Internet and Energy System Integration (EI2) ◽

10.1109/ei250167.2020.9347001 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Ruoyu Lei ◽

Ming Zhou ◽

Zhaoyuan Wu ◽

Yun Sha ◽

Yan Zhang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Power Plant ◽

Optimal Operation ◽

Carbon Trading ◽

Virtual Power ◽

Virtual Power Plant ◽

Allocation Method ◽

Revenue Allocation

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Against evidence-based oppression: Marginalized youth and the politics of risk-based assessment and intervention

Theoretical Criminology ◽

10.1177/1362480616645172 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 21 (2) ◽

pp. 151-167 ◽

Cited By ~ 32

Author(s):

Tim Goddard ◽

Randolph R Myers

Keyword(s):

Lived Experience ◽

Evidence Based ◽

Marginalized Youth ◽

Youth Justice ◽

Policy And Practice ◽

Individual Level ◽

Needs Assessments ◽

Actuarial Risk ◽

The Individual ◽

Causes Of Crime

Actuarial risk/needs assessments exert a formidable influence over the policy and practice of youth offender intervention. Risk-prediction instruments and the programming they inspire are thought not only to link scholarship to practice, but are deemed evidence-based. However, risk-based assessments and programs display a number of troubling characteristics: they reduce the lived experience of racialized inequality into an elevated risk score; they prioritize a very limited set of hyper-individualistic interventions, at the expense of others; and they privilege narrow individual-level outcomes as proof of overall success. As currently practiced, actuarial youth justice replicates earlier interventions that ask young people to navigate structural causes of crime at the individual level, while laundering various racialized inequalities at the root of violence and criminalization. This iteration of actuarial youth justice is not inevitable, and we discuss alternatives to actuarial youth justice as currently practiced.

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Evidence-Based Sentencing

Criminology ◽

10.1093/obo/9780195396607-0296 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

James C. Oleson

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Decision Making ◽

Risk Measures ◽

Criminal History ◽

Community Safety ◽

Assessment Instruments ◽

Evidence Based ◽

Criminogenic Needs ◽

Actuarial Risk ◽

Using Data

The evidence-based practice (EBP) movement can be traced to a 1992 article in the Journal of the American Medical Association, although decision-making with empirical evidence (rather than tradition, anecdote, or intuition) is obviously much older. Neverthless, for the last twenty-five years, EBP has played a pivotal role in criminal justice, particularly within community corrections. While the prediction of recidivism in parole or probation decisions has attracted relatively little attention, the use of risk measures by sentencing judges is controversial. This might be because sentencing typically involves both backward-looking decisions, related to the blameworthiness of the crime, as well as forward-looking decisions, about the offender’s prospective risk of recidivism. Evidence-based sentencing quantifies the predictive aspects of decision-making by incorporating an assessment of risk factors (which increase recidivism risk), protective factors (which reduce recidivism risk), criminogenic needs (impairments that, if addressed, will reduce recidivism risk), the measurement of recidivism risk, and the identification of optimal recidivism-reducing sentencing interventions. Proponents for evidence-based sentencing claim that it can allow judges to “sentence smarter” by using data to distinguish high-risk offenders (who might be imprisoned to mitigate their recidivism risk) from low-risk offenders (who might be released into the community with relatively little danger). This, proponents suggest, can reduce unnecessary incarceration, decrease costs, and enhance community safety. Critics, however, note that risk assessment typically looks beyond criminal conduct, incorporating demographic and socioeconomic variables. Even if a risk factor is facially neutral (e.g., criminal history), it might operate as a proxy for a constitutionally protected category (e.g., race). The same objectionable variables are used widely in presentence reports, but their incorporation into an actuarial risk score has greater potential to obfuscate facts and reify underlying disparities. The evidence-based sentencing literature is dynamic and rapidly evolving, but this bibliography identifies sources that might prove useful. It first outlines the theoretical foundations of traditional (non-evidence-based) sentencing, identifying resources and overviews. It then identifies sources related to decision-making and prediction, risk assessment logic, criminogenic needs, and responsivity. The bibliography then describes and defends evidence-based sentencing, and identifies works on sentencing variables and risk assessment instruments. It then relates evidence-based sentencing to big data and identifies data issues. Several works on constitutional problems are listed, the proxies problem is described, and sources on philosophical issues are described. The bibliography concludes with a description of validation research, the politics of evidence-based sentencing, and the identification of several current initiatives.

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Secondary Acute non Lymphoid Leukemia in Patients Treated for non Hodgkin's Lymphoma: No Risk of Therapy-Related Anll after Provecip Schedule

Tumori Journal ◽

10.1177/030089168707300408 ◽

1987 ◽

Vol 73 (4) ◽

pp. 363-367 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Giuseppe Cimino ◽

Anna Paola Anselmo ◽

Claudio Cartoni ◽

Cesare Guglielmi ◽

Francesco Lo Coco ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Total Body Irradiation ◽

Hodgkin’S Lymphoma ◽

Hodgkin's Lymphoma ◽

Induction Treatment ◽

Lymphoid Leukemia ◽

Non Hodgkin’S Lymphoma ◽

Non Hodgkin's Lymphoma ◽

Extended Field ◽

Actuarial Risk ◽

Total Body

The present study was undertaken to evaluate the frequency, characteristics and actuarial risk of secondary acute non lymphoid leukemia (s-ANLL) in 141 patients treated for non Hodgkin's lymphoma with different modalities. One hundred and twenty-four patients received chemotherapy according to PROVECIP protocol (9). Of these, 15 also received as induction treatment a local nodal irradiation and 33 an extended field radiotherapy. Seventeen out of 141 were treated by total body irradiation. Of these, 15 relapsed and received salvage chemotherapy. Sixteen of the 124 patients treated with PROVECIP also underwent different chemotherapeutic programs as salvage treatment. Of the entire population studied, 2 patients developed an s-ANLL, 45 and 63 months after diagnosis of NHL. The type of treatment significantly affected the occurrence of s-ANLL, since both leukemias occurred in patients treated with total body irradiation, given alone or followed by chemotherapy. The actuarial risk at 8 years was 5.24% in the whole group, whereas it greatly increased in the group of patients treated with total body irradiation (24%). Conversely, no risk was found in the group treated with PROVECIP, alone, with additional chemotherapy, or with associated local or extended field radiotherapy.

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