Past Performance Is No Guarantee of Future Results

PsycCRITIQUES ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 62 (20) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dean Keith Simonton
Keyword(s):  
Past Performance

The Evolutionary Dynamics of Decision Rule Selection

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Laver ◽  
Ernest Sergenti
Keyword(s):  
Decision Rule ◽  
Positive Feedback ◽  
Party System ◽  
Evolutionary Dynamics ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Past Performance ◽  
Party Leaders ◽  
Track Record ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Survival Of The Fittest

This chapter extends the survival-of-the-fittest evolutionary environment to consider the possibility that new political parties, when they first come into existence, do not pick decision rules at random but instead choose rules that have a track record of past success. This is done by adding replicator-mutator dynamics to the model, according to which the probability that each rule is selected by a new party is an evolving but noisy function of that rule's past performance. Estimating characteristic outputs when this type of positive feedback enters the dynamic model creates new methodological challenges. The simulation results show that it is very rare for one decision rule to drive out all others over the long run. While the diversity of decision rules used by party leaders is drastically reduced with such positive feedback in the party system, and while some particular decision rule is typically prominent over a certain period of time, party systems in which party leaders use different decision rules are sustained over substantial periods.

Core-Plus: Analyzing Past Performance

2001 ◽  
Vol 2001 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-29
Author(s):  
Jae Park
Keyword(s):  
Past Performance

Preliminary Study of the Impact of Critical Success Factors on Project Success in Pakistan

2014 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 9-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aqeel Ahmed ◽  
Muhammad Sehail Younis
Keyword(s):  
Critical Success Factors ◽  
Success Factors ◽  
Project Success ◽  
Workforce Planning ◽  
Survey Instrument ◽  
Past Performance ◽  
Cronbach Alpha ◽  
Critical Success ◽  
Preliminary Study ◽  
The Impact

This preliminary study attempts to link among the critical success factors on overall project success in public sector organizations in Pakistan.  In this study it’s reflected that major critical success factors (soundness of Business & workforce, planning & control, quality performance and past performance) can enhance the success of the project in Pakistan.  The purpose of this preliminary study was to verify the reliability of the survey instrument which has been used in European countries. It was found that the planning & control was the highest Cronbach Alpha value, while the ranged for each constructs in the present study from 0.68 to 0.88.  Therefore, based on the Cronbach alpha value score, the proposed survey instrument has fulfilled the basic requirement of a valid instrument.

Performance Target Revisions in Incentive Contracts: Do Information and Trust Reduce Ratcheting and the Ratchet Effect?

2015 ◽  
Vol 90 (5) ◽  
pp. 1755-1778 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jasmijn C. Bol ◽  
Jeremy B. Lill
Keyword(s):  
Structural Changes ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Performance Information ◽  
Ratchet Effect ◽  
Past Performance ◽  
Performance Targets ◽  
Positive Performance ◽  
Confidentiality Agreement ◽  
To Receive ◽  
Performance Target

ABSTRACT In this study, we examine a setting where principals use past performance to annually revise performance targets, but do not fully incorporate the past performance information in their target revisions. We argue that this situation is driven by some principals and agents having an implicit agreement where the principal “allows” the agent to receive economic rents from positive performance-target deviations that are the result of superior effort or transitory gains by not revising targets upward, while the agent “accepts” target revisions by not restricting output when these revisions are the result of structural changes in the operation's true economic capacity. Although both the principal and the agent can benefit from an implicit agreement, we argue that for the implicit agreement to be maintainable, the principal either needs information on the cause of the performance-target deviation or there needs to be trust between the principal and the agent. Using archival data across multiple years and independent bank units, we find a pattern of ratchet attenuation and output restriction that is consistent with the existence of implicit agreements for those principal-agent dyads where information asymmetry is sufficiently reduced or mutual trust exists. Data Availability: Data used in this study cannot be made public due to a confidentiality agreement with the participating firm.

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