Precipitation Modeling in Mountainous Areas for the National Weather Service River Forecast System

2013 ◽  
pp. 189-199
Author(s):  
Lee W. Larson ◽  
John C. Monro
Keyword(s):  
Mountainous Areas ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
National Weather Service ◽  
Precipitation Modeling ◽  
Weather Service

Development of a hydrologic model for a Canadian watershed

1978 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 126-134 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. W. Kite
Keyword(s):  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Conclusive Evidence ◽  
Hydrologic Models ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
National Weather Service ◽  
Northern Ontario ◽  
New Model ◽  
Reservoir Regulation ◽  
Spring Snowmelt ◽  
Weather Service

Three large well-known hydrologic models, the Streamflow Synthesis and Reservoir Regulation, the National Weather Service River Forecast System, and the Saskatchewan River Model No. 6, were calibrated and verified on a 2000 km2 watershed in northern Ontario over two spring snowmelt periods. Although results obtained were adequate it was thought that a smaller simpler model could be designed that would give results at least as good with much less expenditure of time, money, and effort. Details of the relative performances of the three existing and one new model are given and comparative hydrographs are shown. Although use of the models on only one basin cannot provide conclusive evidence of the models' relative goodness, the results obtained do show significant differences between the models as well as certain advantages for the new model.

Advances in operational air quality and aerosol prediction at NOAA/National Weather Service

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivanka Stajner ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Satellite Data ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Satellite Observations ◽  
Atmospheric Composition ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
National Weather Service ◽  
Aerosol Composition ◽  
Fire Emissions ◽  
Weather Service

<p>NOAA is developing the Unified Forecast System (UFS) (https://ufscommunity.org/) as the source system for operational numerical weather prediction applications.  The UFS will be a coupled, comprehensive Earth modeling system with community contributions. The UFS is designed to streamline and simplify NOAA/National Weather Service operational modeling suite.  Integration of air quality predictions into the UFS began with testing of the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system (CMAQ) predictions driven by the operational version of the Global Forecast System (GFS), which includes the Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere (FV3) dynamical core since June 2019.  In addition to system integration, this testing allows us to extend ozone and PM2.5 predictions to 72 hours (from 48 hours that operational predictions currently cover).  Integration of global aerosol prediction based on the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) scheme into the UFS begun by including it into one member of the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS-Aerosol). GEFS-Aerosol predictions demonstrate a substantial improvement for both composition and variability of aerosol distributions over those from the currently operational standalone global aerosol prediction system.</p><p>The use of satellite observations in atmospheric composition and air quality predictions is increasing at NOAA.  Real-time estimates of biomass burning emissions for predictions are based on satellite data.  Challenges for these emissions involve detection of fires, the strength and composition of the emissions, altitude of the plume rise, temporal distribution of the emissions and the uncertainty in persistence or change of emissions during the forecast period. Representation of changing fire emissions in the model becomes more important with increasing prediction length.  Assimilation of Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aerosol optical depth (AOD) observations is under development to constrain aerosol distribution in the global system. Initial testing shows promise for improvement of predictions as well as limitations indicating a need for refinements in quality control, data assimilation impacts on aerosol composition and vertical distribution, as well as a need for bias correction of satellite observations.   Plans for the next-generation regional system include assimilation of satellite retrievals of VIIRS AOD and Sentinel-5 Precursor Tropospheric Ozone Monitoring Instrument (S5P TROPOMI) NO2. Satellite data also play an important role in verification of aerosol predictions. Additional uses of satellite data include verification and evaluation of model predictions such as aerosol vertical profile with TROPOMI aerosol layer height product as well as efforts to constrain and update anthropogenic emissions.</p><p>This presentation will overview advances and challenges in model development and the use of satellite data for operational atmospheric composition and air quality predictions at NOAA.</p>

An Analysis of 2016-2018 Tornadoes and National Weather Service Tornado Warnings across the contiguous United States

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evan S. Bentley ◽  
Richard L. Thompson ◽  
Barry R. Bowers ◽  
Justin G. Gibbs ◽  
Steven E. Nelson
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Rotational Velocity ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
False Alarms ◽  
National Weather Service ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Tornado Warnings ◽  
Tornado Warning ◽  
Weather Service

AbstractPrevious work has considered tornado occurrence with respect to radar data, both WSR-88D and mobile research radars, and a few studies have examined techniques to potentially improve tornado warning performance. To date, though, there has been little work focusing on systematic, large-sample evaluation of National Weather Service (NWS) tornado warnings with respect to radar-observable quantities and the near-storm environment. In this work, three full years (2016–2018) of NWS tornado warnings across the contiguous United States were examined, in conjunction with supporting data in the few minutes preceding warning issuance, or tornado formation in the case of missed events. The investigation herein examines WSR-88D and Storm Prediction Center (SPC) mesoanalysis data associated with these tornado warnings with comparisons made to the current Warning Decision Training Division (WDTD) guidance.Combining low-level rotational velocity and the significant tornado parameter (STP), as used in prior work, shows promise as a means to estimate tornado warning performance, as well as relative changes in performance as criteria thresholds vary. For example, low-level rotational velocity peaking in excess of 30 kt (15 m s−1), in a near-storm environment which is not prohibitive for tornadoes (STP > 0), results in an increased probability of detection and reduced false alarms compared to observed NWS tornado warning metrics. Tornado warning false alarms can also be reduced through limiting warnings with weak (<30 kt), broad (>1nm) circulations in a poor (STP=0) environment, careful elimination of velocity data artifacts like sidelobe contamination, and through greater scrutiny of human-based tornado reports in otherwise questionable scenarios.

scholarly journals Long-Term Performance Metrics for National Weather Service Tornado Warnings

2018 ◽  
Vol 33 (6) ◽  
pp. 1501-1511 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harold E. Brooks ◽  
James Correia
Keyword(s):  
False Alarm ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
False Alarms ◽  
National Weather Service ◽  
False Alarm Ratio ◽  
Tornado Warnings ◽  
Weather Service

Abstract Tornado warnings are one of the flagship products of the National Weather Service. We update the time series of various metrics of performance in order to provide baselines over the 1986–2016 period for lead time, probability of detection, false alarm ratio, and warning duration. We have used metrics (mean lead time for tornadoes warned in advance, fraction of tornadoes warned in advance) that work in a consistent way across the official changes in policy for warning issuance, as well as across points in time when unofficial changes took place. The mean lead time for tornadoes warned in advance was relatively constant from 1986 to 2011, while the fraction of tornadoes warned in advance increased through about 2006, and the false alarm ratio slowly decreased. The largest changes in performance take place in 2012 when the default warning duration decreased, and there is an apparent increased emphasis on reducing false alarms. As a result, the lead time, probability of detection, and false alarm ratio all decrease in 2012. Our analysis is based, in large part, on signal detection theory, which separates the quality of the warning system from the threshold for issuing warnings. Threshold changes lead to trade-offs between false alarms and missed detections. Such changes provide further evidence for changes in what the warning system as a whole considers important, as well as highlighting the limitations of measuring performance by looking at metrics independently.

Teaching Mesoscale Meteorology in the Age of the Modernized National Weather Service: A Report on the Unidata/COMET Workshop

1995 ◽  
Vol 76 (12) ◽  
pp. 2463-2473 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohan K. Ramamurthy ◽  
Charles Murphy ◽  
James Moore ◽  
Melanie Wetzel ◽  
David Knight ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
National Weather Service ◽  
Mesoscale Meteorology ◽  
Weather Service

scholarly journals The state of weather, water and climate services in the U.S. and strategic challenges for the next decade: the perspective from the American Meteorological Society and U.S. National Weather Service

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mike Farrar
Keyword(s):  
Water Security ◽  
National Weather Service ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
Future Evolution ◽  
Keynote Presentation ◽  
Future Goals ◽  
American Meteorological Society ◽  
Environmental Prediction ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Weather Service

&lt;p&gt;This keynote presentation will discuss several key applications and operational systems in the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) and how they fit in with the broader mission of providing science-based weather, water and climate services to the nation. In addition, the future evolution of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction&amp;#160;(NCEP) and NWS will be discussed as it relates to future goals and priorities related to people, science, technology, operational concepts and practices, and partnerships between government/public sector, the private sector, and academia. Also, in his role as the current President of the American Meteorological Society (AMS), Dr. Farrar will address the theme for the 2022 AMS annual meeting, &quot;Environmental Security: weather, water and climate for a more secure world&quot;, which will explore the national and human security impacts from extreme weather and climate events and intersections with health, energy, food, and water security.&lt;/p&gt;

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