The Great Lakes Forecasting System

A preliminary credibility analysis of the Lake Erie portion of the Great Lakes Forecasting System for springtime heating conditions

Quantitative Skill Assessment for Coastal Ocean Models - Coastal and Estuarine Studies ◽

10.1029/ce047p0397 ◽

1995 ◽

pp. 397-423

Author(s):

Kuan Chihfeng ◽

Keith W. Bedford ◽

David J. Schwab

Keyword(s):

Great Lakes ◽

Lake Erie ◽

Forecasting System

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Initial Implementation of the Great Lakes Forecasting System: A Real-Time System for Predicting Lake Circulation and Thermal Structure

Water Quality Research Journal ◽

10.2166/wqrj.1994.014 ◽

1994 ◽

Vol 29 (2-3) ◽

pp. 203-220 ◽

Cited By ~ 52

Author(s):

D.J. Schwab ◽

K.W. Bedford

Keyword(s):

Great Lakes ◽

Real Time ◽

Prediction Models ◽

Thermal Structure ◽

Weather Prediction ◽

Model Output ◽

Real Time System ◽

Initial Implementation ◽

Lake Circulation ◽

Forecasting System

Abstract The Great Lakes Forecasting System is a real-time coastal prediction system for forecasting, on a daily basis, the physical state of each of the Great Lakes for the next two days. Forecast variables include the surface water level fluctuation, horizontal and vertical structure of temperature and currents, and turbulence. The system uses meteorological observations, satellite data, and forecasts from numerical weather prediction models as input. Lake circulation and thermal structure are calculated using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic prediction model. Output from the model is used to provide information on the current state of the lake and to predict changes for the next two days. This information is used by scientists, government agencies, commercial operations, and the public for enhancement of commercial and recreational activity, resource management, and hazard avoidance. This paper describes system design, data acquisition and analysis procedures, the hydrodynamic model, and sample model output. The initial implementation of the system provides daily nowcasts of system variables for one lake, Lake Erie. Requirements for implementing actual lake forecasts are discussed.

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The Operational Implementation of a Great Lakes Wave Forecasting System at NOAA/NCEP*

Weather and Forecasting ◽

10.1175/waf-d-12-00049.1 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 29 (6) ◽

pp. 1473-1497 ◽

Cited By ~ 20

Author(s):

Jose-Henrique G. M. Alves ◽

Arun Chawla ◽

Hendrik L. Tolman ◽

David Schwab ◽

Gregory Lang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Great Lakes ◽

Mesoscale Model ◽

Wrf Model ◽

Wave Model ◽

Environmental Research ◽

New Wave ◽

Wavewatch Iii ◽

Wave Heights ◽

Forecasting System ◽

Wave Forecasting

Abstract The development of a Great Lakes wave forecasting system at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is described. The system is an implementation of the WAVEWATCH III model, forced with atmospheric data from NCEP’s regional Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model [the North American Mesoscale Model (NAM)] and the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD). Reviews are made of previous Great Lakes wave modeling efforts. The development history of NCEP’s Great Lakes wave forecasting system is presented. A performance assessment is made of model wind speeds, as well as wave heights and periods, relative to National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) measurements. Performance comparisons are made relative to NOAA’s Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL) wave prediction system. Results show that 1- and 2-day forecasts from NCEP have good skill in predicting wave heights and periods. NCEP’s system provides a better representation of measured wave periods, relative to the GLERL model in most conditions. Wave heights during storms, however, are consistently underestimated by NCEP’s current operational system, whereas the GLERL model provides close agreement with observations. Research efforts to develop new wave-growth parameterizations and overcome this limitation have led to upgrades to the WAVEWATCH III model, scheduled to become operational at NCEP in 2013. Results are presented from numerical experiments made with the new wave-model physics, showing significant improvements to the skill of NCEP’s Great Lakes wave forecasting system in predicting storm wave heights.

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