Sensitivity of global vegetation models to present-day climate simulated by global climate models

1997 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 415-434 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Ciret ◽  
A. Henderson-Sellers
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Vegetation Models ◽  
Global Vegetation

scholarly journals Nitrogen restricts future treeline advance in the sub-arctic

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adrian Gustafson ◽  
Paul A. Miller ◽  
Robert Björk ◽  
Stefan Olin ◽  
Benjamin Smith
Keyword(s):  
High Latitude ◽  
Vegetation Change ◽  
Nitrogen Availability ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Environmental Drivers ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Plant Soil ◽  
Vegetation Models

Abstract. Arctic environmental change has induced shifts in high latitude plant community composition and stature with impli-cations for Arctic carbon cycling and energy exchange. Two major components of high latitude ecosystems undergoing change is the advancement of trees into treeless tundra and the increased abundance and size of shrubs. How future changes in key climatic and environmental drivers will affect distributions of major ecosystem types is an active area of research. Dynamic Vegetation Models (DVMs) offer a way to investigate multiple and interacting drivers of vegeta-tion distribution and ecosystem function. We employed the LPJ-GUESS DVM over a subarctic landscape in northern Sweden, Torneträsk. Using a highly resolved climate dataset we downscaled CMIP5 climate data from three Global Climate Models and two 21st century future scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) to investigate future impacts of climate change on these ecosystems. We also performed three model experiments where we factorially varied drivers (climate, nitrogen deposition and [CO2]) to disentangle the effects of each on ecosystem properties and functions. We found that treelines could advance by between 45 and 195 elevational meters in the landscape until the year 2100, depending on the scenario. Temperature was a strong, but not the only, driver of vegetation change. Nitrogen availability was identi-fied as an important modulator of treeline advance. While increased CO2 fertilisation drove productivity increases it did not result in any range shifts of trees. Treeline advance was realistically simulated without any temperature depend-ence on growth, but biomass was overestimated. As nitrogen was identified as an important modulator of treeline ad-vance, we support the idea that accurately representing plant-soil interactions in models will be key to future predic-tions Arctic vegetation change.

Toward dynamic global vegetation models for simulating vegetation–climate interactions and feedbacks: recent developments, limitations, and future challenges

2010 ◽  
Vol 18 (NA) ◽  
pp. 333-353 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne Quillet ◽  
Changhui Peng ◽  
Michelle Garneau
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Vegetation Dynamics ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Evaluation Methodology ◽  
Dynamic Global Vegetation Models ◽  
Vegetation Models ◽  
Global Vegetation ◽  
Dynamics Models ◽  
Climate Studies

There is a lack in representation of biosphere–atmosphere interactions in current climate models. To fill this gap, one may introduce vegetation dynamics in surface transfer schemes or couple global climate models (GCMs) with vegetation dynamics models. As these vegetation dynamics models were not designed to be included in GCMs, how are the latest generation dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) suitable for use in global climate studies? This paper reviews the latest developments in DGVM modelling as well as the development of DGVM–GCM coupling in the framework of global climate studies. Limitations of DGVM and coupling are shown and the challenges of these methods are highlighted. During the last decade, DGVMs underwent major changes in the representation of physical and biogeochemical mechanisms such as photosynthesis and respiration processes as well as in the representation of regional properties of vegetation. However, several limitations such as carbon and nitrogen cycles, competition, land-use and land-use changes, and disturbances have been identified. In addition, recent advances in model coupling techniques allow the simulation of the vegetation–atmosphere interactions in GCMs with the help of DGVMs. Though DGVMs represent a good alternative to investigate vegetation–atmosphere interactions at a large scale, some weaknesses in evaluation methodology and model design need to be further investigated to improve the results.

scholarly journals Nitrogen restricts future sub-arctic treeline advance in an individual-based dynamic vegetation model

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (23) ◽  
pp. 6329-6347
Author(s):  
Adrian Gustafson ◽  
Paul A. Miller ◽  
Robert G. Björk ◽  
Stefan Olin ◽  
Benjamin Smith
Keyword(s):  
High Latitude ◽  
Vegetation Change ◽  
Nitrogen Availability ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Environmental Drivers ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Plant Soil ◽  
Vegetation Models

Abstract. Arctic environmental change induces shifts in high-latitude plant community composition and stature with implications for Arctic carbon cycling and energy exchange. Two major components of change in high-latitude ecosystems are the advancement of trees into tundra and the increased abundance and size of shrubs. How future changes in key climatic and environmental drivers will affect distributions of major ecosystem types is an active area of research. Dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) offer a way to investigate multiple and interacting drivers of vegetation distribution and ecosystem function. We employed the LPJ-GUESS tree-individual-based DVM over the Torneträsk area, a sub-arctic landscape in northern Sweden. Using a highly resolved climate dataset to downscale CMIP5 climate data from three global climate models and two 21st-century future scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5), we investigated future impacts of climate change on these ecosystems. We also performed model experiments where we factorially varied drivers (climate, nitrogen deposition and [CO2]) to disentangle the effects of each on ecosystem properties and functions. Our model predicted that treelines could advance by between 45 and 195 elevational metres by 2100, depending on the scenario. Temperature was a strong driver of vegetation change, with nitrogen availability identified as an important modulator of treeline advance. While increased CO2 fertilisation drove productivity increases, it did not result in range shifts of trees. Treeline advance was realistically simulated without any temperature dependence on growth, but biomass was overestimated. Our finding that nitrogen cycling could modulate treeline advance underlines the importance of representing plant–soil interactions in models to project future Arctic vegetation change.

scholarly journals Decomposing uncertainties in the future terrestrial carbon budget associated with emission scenario, climate projection, and ecosystem simulation using the ISI-MIP result

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 1197-1219 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Nishina ◽  
A. Ito ◽  
P. Falloon ◽  
A. D. Friend ◽  
D. J. Beerling ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Net Primary Production ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
C Cycling ◽  
Vegetation Models ◽  
Global Vegetation ◽  
Uncertainty Source

Abstract. Changes to global net primary production (NPP), vegetation biomass carbon (VegC), and soil organic carbon (SOC) estimated by six global vegetation models (GVM) obtained from an Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project study were examined. Simulation results were obtained using five global climate models (GCM) forced with four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. To clarify which component (emission scenarios, climate projections, or global vegetation models) contributes the most to uncertainties in projected global terrestrial C cycling by 2100, analysis of variance (ANOVA) and wavelet clustering were applied to 70 projected simulation sets. In the end of simulation period, the changes from the year of 2000 in all three variables considerably varied from net negative to positive values. ANOVA revealed that the main sources of uncertainty are different among variables and depend on the projection period. We determined that in the global VegC, and SOC projections, GVMs dominate uncertainties (60 and 90%, respectively) rather than climate driving scenarios, i.e., RCPs and GCMs. These results suggested that we don't have still enough resolution among each RCP scenario to evaluate climate change impacts on ecosystem conditions in global terrestrial C cycling. In addition, we found that the contributions of each uncertainty source were spatio-temporally heterogeneous and differed among the GVM variables. The dominant uncertainty source for changes in NPP and VegC varies along the climatic gradient. The contribution of GVM to the uncertainty decreases as the climate division gets cooler (from ca. 80% in the equatorial division to 40% in the snow climatic division). To evaluate the effects of climate change on ecosystems with practical resolution in RCP scenarios, GVMs require further improvement to reduce the uncertainties in global C cycling as much as, if not more than, GCMs. Our study suggests that the improvement of GVMs is a priority for the reduction of total uncertainties in projected C cycling for climate impact assessments.

Extreme Events in High Resolution CMCC Regional and Global Climate Models

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enrico Scoccimarro ◽  
Silvio Gualdi ◽  
Antonella Sanna ◽  
Edoardo Bucchignani ◽  
Myriam Montesarchio
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models

scholarly journals Global climatology and trends in convective environments from ERA5 and rawinsonde data

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mateusz Taszarek ◽  
John T. Allen ◽  
Mattia Marchio ◽  
Harold E. Brooks
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Rawinsonde Data

AbstractGlobally, thunderstorms are responsible for a significant fraction of rainfall, and in the mid-latitudes often produce extreme weather, including large hail, tornadoes and damaging winds. Despite this importance, how the global frequency of thunderstorms and their accompanying hazards has changed over the past 4 decades remains unclear. Large-scale diagnostics applied to global climate models have suggested that the frequency of thunderstorms and their intensity is likely to increase in the future. Here, we show that according to ERA5 convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective precipitation (CP) have decreased over the tropics and subtropics with simultaneous increases in 0–6 km wind shear (BS06). Conversely, rawinsonde observations paint a different picture across the mid-latitudes with increasing CAPE and significant decreases to BS06. Differing trends and disagreement between ERA5 and rawinsondes observed over some regions suggest that results should be interpreted with caution, especially for CAPE and CP across tropics where uncertainty is the highest and reliable long-term rawinsonde observations are missing.

scholarly journals Regions of intensification of extreme snowfall under future warming

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lennart Quante ◽  
Sven N. Willner ◽  
Robin Middelanis ◽  
Anders Levermann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Observational Data ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Average Intensity ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Future Warming

AbstractDue to climate change the frequency and character of precipitation are changing as the hydrological cycle intensifies. With regards to snowfall, global warming has two opposing influences; increasing humidity enables intense snowfall, whereas higher temperatures decrease the likelihood of snowfall. Here we show an intensification of extreme snowfall across large areas of the Northern Hemisphere under future warming. This is robust across an ensemble of global climate models when they are bias-corrected with observational data. While mean daily snowfall decreases, both the 99th and the 99.9th percentiles of daily snowfall increase in many regions in the next decades, especially for Northern America and Asia. Additionally, the average intensity of snowfall events exceeding these percentiles as experienced historically increases in many regions. This is likely to pose a challenge to municipalities in mid to high latitudes. Overall, extreme snowfall events are likely to become an increasingly important impact of climate change in the next decades, even if they will become rarer, but not necessarily less intense, in the second half of the century.

scholarly journals Reassessing Existing Reservoir Supply Capacity and Management Resilience under Climate Change and Sediment Deposition

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (13) ◽  
pp. 1819
Author(s):  
Eleni S. Bekri ◽  
Polychronis Economou ◽  
Panayotis C. Yannopoulos ◽  
Alexander C. Demetracopoulos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Sediment Deposition ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Management Scenario ◽  
Supply Capacity

Freshwater resources are limited and seasonally and spatially unevenly distributed. Thus, in water resources management plans, storage reservoirs play a vital role in safeguarding drinking, irrigation, hydropower and livestock water supply. In the last decades, the dams’ negative effects, such as fragmentation of water flow and sediment transport, are considered in decision-making, for achieving an optimal balance between human needs and healthy riverine and coastal ecosystems. Currently, operation of existing reservoirs is challenged by increasing water demand, climate change effects and active storage reduction due to sediment deposition, jeopardizing their supply capacity. This paper proposes a methodological framework to reassess supply capacity and management resilience for an existing reservoir under these challenges. Future projections are derived by plausible climate scenarios and global climate models and by stochastic simulation of historic data. An alternative basic reservoir management scenario with a very low exceedance probability is derived. Excess water volumes are investigated under a probabilistic prism for enabling multiple-purpose water demands. Finally, this method is showcased to the Ladhon Reservoir (Greece). The probable total benefit from water allocated to the various water uses is estimated to assist decision makers in examining the tradeoffs between the probable additional benefit and risk of exceedance.

scholarly journals Projecting heat-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios in China

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Yang ◽  
Maigeng Zhou ◽  
Zhoupeng Ren ◽  
Mengmeng Li ◽  
Boguang Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Specific Effect ◽  
Northern China ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Population Ageing ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios

AbstractRecent studies have reported a variety of health consequences of climate change. However, the vulnerability of individuals and cities to climate change remains to be evaluated. We project the excess cause-, age-, region-, and education-specific mortality attributable to future high temperatures in 161 Chinese districts/counties using 28 global climate models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). To assess the influence of population ageing on the projection of future heat-related mortality, we further project the age-specific effect estimates under five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Heat-related excess mortality is projected to increase from 1.9% (95% eCI: 0.2–3.3%) in the 2010s to 2.4% (0.4–4.1%) in the 2030 s and 5.5% (0.5–9.9%) in the 2090 s under RCP8.5, with corresponding relative changes of 0.5% (0.0–1.2%) and 3.6% (−0.5–7.5%). The projected slopes are steeper in southern, eastern, central and northern China. People with cardiorespiratory diseases, females, the elderly and those with low educational attainment could be more affected. Population ageing amplifies future heat-related excess deaths 2.3- to 5.8-fold under different SSPs, particularly for the northeast region. Our findings can help guide public health responses to ameliorate the risk of climate change.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document