scholarly journals Interannual fluctuations in atmospheric angular momentum simulated by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction medium range forecast model

1997 ◽  
Vol 102 (D6) ◽  
pp. 6703-6713 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kingtse C. Mo ◽  
Jean O. Dickey ◽  
Steven L. Marcus
Keyword(s):  
Angular Momentum ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Atmospheric Angular Momentum ◽  
Medium Range Forecast ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Interannual Fluctuations ◽  
Environmental Prediction

An Analysis of the Accuracy of 120-h Predictions by the National Meteorological Center's Medium-Range Forecast Model

1994 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mary A. Bedrick ◽  
Anthony J. Cristaldi ◽  
Stephen J. Colucci ◽  
Daniel S. Wilks
Keyword(s):  
Forecast Model ◽  
Medium Range Forecast ◽  
Medium Range

Global propagation of interannual fluctuations in atmospheric angular momentum

Nature ◽  
1992 ◽  
Vol 357 (6378) ◽  
pp. 484-488 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. O. Dickey ◽  
S. L. Marcus ◽  
R. Hide
Keyword(s):  
Angular Momentum ◽  
Atmospheric Angular Momentum ◽  
Interannual Fluctuations

The Performance of a Medium-Range Forecast Model in Winter–Impact of Physical Parameterizations

1980 ◽  
Vol 108 (11) ◽  
pp. 1736-1773 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Hollingsworth ◽  
K. Arpe ◽  
M. Tiedtke ◽  
M. Capaldo ◽  
H. Savijärvi
Keyword(s):  
Forecast Model ◽  
Medium Range Forecast ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Physical Parameterizations

Application of the NCEP Ensemble Prediction System to Medium-Range Forecasting in South Africa: New Products, Benefits, and Challenges

2007 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Warren J. Tennant ◽  
Zoltan Toth ◽  
Kevin J. Rae
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Ensemble Prediction System ◽  
Medium Range Forecast ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Probability Forecasts ◽  
Environmental Prediction ◽  
Probability Density Distributions

Abstract The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Ensemble Forecasting System (EFS) is used operationally in South Africa for medium-range forecasts up to 14 days ahead. The use of model-generated probability forecasts has a clear benefit in the skill of the 1–7-day forecasts. This is seen in the forecast probability distribution being more successful in spanning the observed space than a single deterministic forecast and, thus, substantially reducing the instances of missed events in the forecast. In addition, the probability forecasts generated using the EFS are particularly useful in estimating confidence in forecasts. During the second week of the forecast the EFS is used as a heads-up for possible synoptic-scale events and also for predicting average weather conditions and probability density distributions of some elements such as maximum temperature and wind. This paper assesses the medium-range forecast process and the application of the NCEP EFS at the South African Weather Service. It includes a description of the various medium-range products, adaptive bias-correction methods applied to the forecasts, verification of the forecast products, and a discussion on the various challenges that face researchers and forecasters alike.

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