Holocene slip rate and earthquake recurrence of the northern Calaveras Fault at Leyden Creek, northern California

1996 ◽  
Vol 101 (B3) ◽  
pp. 5961-5975 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keith I. Kelson ◽  
Gary D. Simpson ◽  
William R. Lettis ◽  
Colleen C. Haraden
Keyword(s):  
Slip Rate ◽  
Northern California ◽  
Earthquake Recurrence

Bounds on the Average Recurrence Interval of Major Earthquakes Along the Haiyuan Fault In North-Central China

1988 ◽  
Vol 59 (3) ◽  
pp. 81-89 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhang Peizhen ◽  
Peter Molnar ◽  
Zhang Weigi ◽  
Deng Qidong ◽  
Wang Yipeng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Slip Rate ◽  
Recurrence Interval ◽  
Central China ◽  
Great Earthquake ◽  
Average Amount ◽  
Earthquake Recurrence ◽  
Surface Rupture ◽  
North Central ◽  
Recurrence Intervals ◽  
Historic Record

Abstract Evidence of surface rupture has been found in trenches near Caiyuan and Shaomayin along the Haiyuan fault, where a great earthquake occurred in 1920. In addition to the 1920 earthquake, faulting occurred at least once between 2590 ± 190 years and 1525 ± 170 years B.P. in Caiyuan, and there probably was another event since 1525 ± 170 years B.P. The formation and later tilting of fault-related, scarp-derived colluvial wedges in the Shaomayin trench appear to record the occurrence of two pre-1920 events in the last 2200–3700 years, but there could have been three or more events. The average recurrence interval for great earthquakes along the Haiyuan fault probably exceeds 700 years, for the 1920 Haiyuan earthquake is the only major event to have been reported in this area in as many years of recorded history. Using a Holocene slip rate along this fault of 8 ± 2 mm/yr, and 8 m as the average amount of offset associated with past great events that have been determined by our previous studies, the resultant earthquake recurrence intervals would be from 800 to 1400 years. The results from our trenches and the historic record are consistent with this range.

scholarly journals Discrete changes in fault free-face roughness: constraining past earthquakes characteristics

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olaf Zielke ◽  
Lucilla Benedetti ◽  
P. Martin Mai ◽  
Magali Rizza ◽  
Jules Fleury ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Roughness ◽  
Active Tectonics ◽  
Slip Rate ◽  
Fault Scarp ◽  
Rock Properties ◽  
Normal Faults ◽  
Earthquake Recurrence ◽  
Face Surface ◽  
Free Face ◽  
Face Morphology

<p>A driving motivator in many active tectonics studies is to learn more about the recurrence large and potentially destructive earthquakes, providing the means to assess the respective fault’s future seismic behavior. Doing so requires long records of earthquake recurrence. The lack of sufficiently long instrumental seismic records (that would be best suited for this task) has led to the development of other approaches that may constrain the recurrence of surface rupturing earthquakes along individual faults. These approaches take different forms, depending on the specific tectonic and geographic conditions of an investigated region.</p><p>For example, around the Mediterranean Sea, we frequently find bedrock scarps along normal faults. Assuming that bedrock (i.e., fault free-face) exposure is caused by the occurrence of sub-sequent large earthquakes, we may measure certain rock properties to constrain the time and size of past earthquakes as well as the fault’s geologic slip-rate. A now-classic example in this regard is the measurement of <sup>36</sup>Cl concentrations along exposed fault scarps in limestones.</p><p>For the presented study, we looked at another property of the exposed fault free-face, namely its morphologic roughness. We aim to identify whether fault free-face roughness contains information to constrain earthquake occurrence and fault slip-rates following the assumption that  sub-sequent exposure to the elements and sub-areal erosional conditions may leave a signal in how rough (or smooth) the fault free-face is (assuming a somewhat uniform pre-exposure roughness). Here, we present observations of fault free-face surface roughness for the Mt. Vettore fault (last ruptured in 2016) and the Rocca Preturo fault (The underlying models of fault free-face morphology were generated using the Structure-from-Motion approach and a large suite of unregistered optical images.). Employing different metrics to quantify morphologic roughness, we were indeed able to observe a) an increase in surface roughness with fault scarp height (i.e., longer exposure to sub-areal erosion causes higher roughness), and b) distinct (rather than gradual) changes in surface roughness, suggesting a correlation to individual exposure events such as earthquakes. Hence, fault free-face morphology of bedrock faults may serve as an additional metric to reconstruct earthquake recurrence patterns.</p>

scholarly journals The impact of earthquake cycle variability on neotectonic and paleoseismic slip rate estimates

Solid Earth ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Styron
Keyword(s):  
Late Quaternary ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Slip Rate ◽  
Earthquake Recurrence ◽  
Coseismic Slip ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
True Value ◽  
Recurrence Intervals ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Earthquake Cycles

Abstract. Because of the natural (aleatoric) variability in earthquake recurrence intervals and coseismic displacements on a fault, cumulative slip on a fault does not increase linearly or perfectly step-wise with time; instead, some amount of variability in shorter-term slip rates results. Though this variability could greatly affect the accuracy of neotectonic (i.e., late Quaternary) and paleoseismic slip rate estimates, these effects have not been quantified. In this study, idealized faults with four different, representative, earthquake recurrence distributions are created with equal mean recurrence intervals (1000 years) and coseismic slip distributions, and the variability in slip rate estimates over 500- to 100 000-year measurement windows is calculated for all faults through Monte Carlo simulations. Slip rates are calculated as net offset divided by elapsed time, as in a typical neotectonic study. The recurrence distributions used are quasi-periodic, unclustered and clustered lognormal distributions, and an unclustered exponential distribution. The results demonstrate that the most important parameter is the coefficient of variation (CV = standard deviation ∕ mean) of the recurrence distributions rather than the shape of the distribution itself. Slip rate variability over short timescales (< 5000 years or 5 mean earthquake cycles) is quite high, varying by a factor of 3 or more from the mean, but decreases with time and is close to stable after ∼40 000 years (40 mean earthquake cycles). This variability is higher for recurrence distributions with a higher CV. The natural variability in the slip rate estimates compared to the true value is then used to estimate the epistemic uncertainty in a single slip rate measurement (as one would make in a geological study) in the absence of any measurement uncertainty. This epistemic uncertainty is very high (a factor of 2 or more) for measurement windows of a few mean earthquake cycles (as in a paleoseismic slip rate estimate), but decreases rapidly to a factor of 1–2 with > 5 mean earthquake cycles (as in a neotectonic slip rate study). These uncertainties are independent of, and should be propagated with, uncertainties in fault displacement and geochronologic measurements used to estimate slip rates. They may then aid in the comparison of slip rates from different methods or the evaluation of potential slip rate changes over time.

Major Earthquakes Occur Regularly on an Isolated Plate Boundary Fault

Science ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 336 (6089) ◽  
pp. 1690-1693 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kelvin R. Berryman ◽  
Ursula A. Cochran ◽  
Kate J. Clark ◽  
Glenn P. Biasi ◽  
Robert M. Langridge ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Plate Boundary ◽  
Slip Rate ◽  
Strike Slip ◽  
Earthquake Recurrence ◽  
Alpine Fault ◽  
Earthquake Record ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Seismic Hazard Estimation ◽  
Recurrence Behavior ◽  
Types Of Faults

The scarcity of long geological records of major earthquakes, on different types of faults, makes testing hypotheses of regular versus random or clustered earthquake recurrence behavior difficult. We provide a fault-proximal major earthquake record spanning 8000 years on the strike-slip Alpine Fault in New Zealand. Cyclic stratigraphy at Hokuri Creek suggests that the fault ruptured to the surface 24 times, and event ages yield a 0.33 coefficient of variation in recurrence interval. We associate this near-regular earthquake recurrence with a geometrically simple strike-slip fault, with high slip rate, accommodating a high proportion of plate boundary motion that works in isolation from other faults. We propose that it is valid to apply time-dependent earthquake recurrence models for seismic hazard estimation to similar faults worldwide.

scholarly journals Constraining Central Washington’s Potential Seismic Hazard

Eos ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 99 ◽  
Author(s):  
Terri Cook
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Slip Rate ◽  
Fault Geometry ◽  
Earthquake Recurrence ◽  
Recurrence Intervals

Fault geometry and slip rate analyses show deformation in the Yakima Fold Province accelerated in the Pleistocene and has remained elevated, offering new insights into earthquake recurrence intervals.

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