Spatial extents of tropical droughts during El Niño in current and future climate in observations, reanalysis, and CMIP5 models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan D. Perez Arango ◽  
Benjamin R. Lintner ◽  
Leila M. V. Carvalho ◽  
Bradfield Lyon
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Cmip5 Models

scholarly journals Changes in Independency between Two Types of El Niño Events under a Greenhouse Warming Scenario in CMIP5 Models

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (19) ◽  
pp. 7561-7575 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yoo-Geun Ham ◽  
Yerim Jeong ◽  
Jong-Seong Kug
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Greenhouse Warming ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
The Western Pacific ◽  
El Nino Events

Abstract This study uses archives from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to investigate changes in independency between two types of El Niño events caused by greenhouse warming. In the observations, the independency between cold tongue (CT) and warm pool (WP) El Niño events is distinctively increased in recent decades. The simulated changes in independency between the two types of El Niño events according to the CMIP5 models are quite diverse, although the observed features are simulated to some extent in several climate models. It is found that the climatological change after global warming is an essential factor in determining the changes in independency between the two types of El Niño events. For example, the independency between these events is increased after global warming when the climatological precipitation is increased mainly over the equatorial central Pacific. This climatological precipitation increase extends convective response to the east, particularly for CT El Niño events, which leads to greater differences in the spatial pattern between the two types of El Niño events to increase the El Niño independency. On the contrary, in models with decreased independency between the two types of El Niño events after global warming, climatological precipitation is increased mostly over the western Pacific. This confines the atmospheric response to the western Pacific in both El Niño events; therefore, the similarity between them is increased after global warming. In addition to the changes in the climatological state after global warming, a possible connection of the changes in the El Niño independency with the historical mean state is discussed in this paper.

scholarly journals Do CMIP5 Models Show El Niño Diversity?

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (5) ◽  
pp. 1619-1641 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jie Feng ◽  
Tao Lian ◽  
Jun Ying ◽  
Junde Li ◽  
Gen Li
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Heat Budget ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Budget Analysis ◽  
Future Global Warming ◽  
Central Equatorial Pacific ◽  
The Future ◽  
Sst Gradient

AbstractWhether the state-of-the-art CMIP5 models have different El Niño types and how the degree of modeled El Niño diversity would be impacted by the future global warming are still heavily debated. In this study, cluster analysis is used to investigate El Niño diversity in 30 CMIP5 models. As the method does not rely on any prior knowledge of the patterns of El Niño seen in observations, it provides a practical way to identify the degree of El Niño diversity in models. Under the historical scenario, most models show a poor degree of El Niño diversity in their own model world, primarily due to the lopsided numbers of events belonging to the two modeled El Niño types and the weak compactness of events in each cluster. Four models are found showing significant El Niño diversity, yet none of them captures the longitudinal distributions of the warming centers of the two El Niño types seen in the observations. Heat budget analysis of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly suggests that the degree of modeled El Niño diversity is highly related to the climatological zonal SST gradient over the western-central equatorial Pacific in models. As the gradient is weakened in most models under the future high-emission scenario, the degree of modeled El Niño diversity is further reduced in the future. The results indicate that a better simulation of the SST gradient over the western-central equatorial Pacific might allow a more reliable simulation/projection of El Niño diversity in most CMIP5 models.

EL NINO EFFECTS ON THE ARCTIC STRATOSPHERE ACCORDING TO CMIP5 MODELS AND REANALYSIS

2021 ◽  
pp. 5-23
Author(s):  
M. A. Kolennikova ◽  
◽  
P. N. Vargin ◽  
D. Yu. Gushchina ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Composite Analysis ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Coupled Climate Models

The response of the Arctic stratosphere to El Nio is studied with account of its Eastern and Central Pacific types for the period of 1950-2005. The study is based on the regression and composite analysis using the simulations with six CMIP5 coupled climate models and reanalysis data.

El Niño–East Asian monsoon teleconnection and its diversity in CMIP5 models

2019 ◽  
Vol 53 (9-10) ◽  
pp. 6417-6435 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peng Wang ◽  
Chi-Yung Tam ◽  
Kang Xu
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Asian Monsoon ◽  
East Asian Monsoon ◽  
El Nino ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Cmip5 Models

Impact of differences in the decaying phase of El Niño on South and East Asia summer monsoon in CMIP5 models

2019 ◽  
Vol 39 (14) ◽  
pp. 5503-5521 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gangiredla Srinivas ◽  
Jasti S. Chowdary ◽  
Chellappan Gnanaseelan ◽  
Anant Parekh ◽  
Ramu Dandi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
East Asia Summer Monsoon

El Niño teleconnections in CMIP5 models

2012 ◽  
Vol 41 (7-8) ◽  
pp. 2165-2177 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bryan C. Weare
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Cmip5 Models

scholarly journals Time-Varying Response of ENSO-Induced Tropical Pacific Rainfall to Global Warming in CMIP5 Models. Part II: Intermodel Uncertainty

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 595-608 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ping Huang
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Global Mean Surface Temperature ◽  
Global Mean ◽  
Mean State

Anomalous rainfall in the tropical Pacific driven by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a crucial pathway of ENSO’s global impacts. The changes in ENSO rainfall under global warming vary among the models, even though previous studies have shown that many models project that ENSO rainfall will likely intensify and shift eastward in response to global warming. The present study evaluates the robustness of the changes in ENSO rainfall in 32 CMIP5 models forced under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. The robust increase in mean-state moisture dominates the robust intensification of ENSO rainfall. The uncertain amplitude changes in ENSO-related SST variability are the largest source of the uncertainty in ENSO rainfall changes through influencing the amplitude changes in ENSO-driven circulation variability, whereas the structural changes in ENSO SST and ENSO circulation enhancement in the central Pacific are more robust than the amplitude changes. The spatial pattern of the mean-state SST changes—the departure of local SST changes from the tropical mean—with an El Niño–like pattern is a relatively robust factor, although it also contains pronounced intermodel differences. The intermodel spread of historical ENSO circulation is another noteworthy source of the uncertainty in ENSO rainfall changes. The intermodel standard deviation of ENSO rainfall changes increases along with the increase in global-mean surface temperature. However, the robustness of enhanced ENSO rainfall changes in the central-eastern Pacific is almost unchanged, whereas the eastward shift of ENSO rainfall is increasingly robust along with the increase in global-mean surface temperature.

El Niño and our future climate: where do we stand?

2010 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 260-270 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriel A. Vecchi ◽  
Andrew T. Wittenberg
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Future Climate
Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document