Combined Effect of PDO and ENSO on the Date of the First Tropical Cyclone Landfall in Continental Eastern Asia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuang Li ◽  
Ziniu Xiao ◽  
Yuchun Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Combined Effect ◽  
Eastern Asia ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Landfall

scholarly journals Seasonal Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Landfall Using ECMWF’s System 4

2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (5) ◽  
pp. 1239-1255 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dan L. Bergman ◽  
Linus Magnusson ◽  
Johan Nilsson ◽  
Frederic Vitart
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North American ◽  
Seasonal Forecast ◽  
Seasonal Forecasting ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Forecast Period ◽  
The North ◽  
Hurricane Season ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Landfall

Abstract A method has been developed to forecast seasonal landfall risk using ensembles of cyclone tracks generated by ECMWF’s seasonal forecast system 4. The method has been applied to analyze and retrospectively forecast the landfall risk along the North American coast. The main result is that the method can be used to forecast landfall for some parts of the coast, but the skill is lower than for basinwide forecasts of activity. The rank correlations between forecasts issued on 1 May and observations are 0.6 for basinwide tropical cyclone number and 0.5 for landfall anywhere along the coast. When the forecast period is limited to the peak of the hurricane season, the landfall correlation increases to 0.6. Moreover, when the forecast issue date is pushed forward to 1 August, basinwide tropical cyclone and hurricane correlations increase to 0.7 and 0.8, respectively, whereas landfall correlations improve less. The quality of the forecasts is in line with that obtained by others.

Seasonal Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Landfall over Mozambique

2003 ◽  
Vol 16 (23) ◽  
pp. 3932-3945 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frédéric Vitart ◽  
David Anderson ◽  
Tim Stockdale
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Seasonal Forecasting ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Landfall

Physical Mechanisms Responsible for Track Changes and Rainfall Distributions Associated with Tropical Cyclone Landfall

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johnny C.L. Chan
Keyword(s):  
Surface Roughness ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Disaster Preparedness ◽  
Physical Processes ◽  
Physical Mechanisms ◽  
Model Predictions ◽  
Forecast Models ◽  
Landfall Location ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Landfall

As a tropical cyclone approaches land, its interaction with the characteristics of the land (surface roughness, topography, moisture availability, etc.) will lead to changes in its track as well as the rainfall and wind distributions near its landfall location. Accurate predictions of such changes are important in issuing warnings and disaster preparedness. In this chapter, the basic physical mechanisms that cause changes in the track and rainfall distributions when a tropical cyclone is about to make landfall are presented. These mechanisms are derived based on studies from both observations and idealized simulations. While the latter are relatively simple, they can isolate the fundamental and underlying physical processes that are inherent when an interaction between the land and the tropical cyclone circulation takes place. These processes are important in assessing the performance of the forecast models, and hence could help improve the model predictions and subsequently disaster preparedness.

scholarly journals Impact of Tropical Cyclone Landfall Angle on Storm Surge Along the Mid‐Atlantic Bight

2020 ◽  
Vol 125 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandra N. Ramos‐Valle ◽  
Enrique N. Curchitser ◽  
Cindy L. Bruyère
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Landfall
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