scholarly journals The Global Teleconnection Signature of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation and Its Modulation by the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation

2020 ◽  
Vol 125 (7) ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin A. Toms ◽  
Elizabeth A. Barnes ◽  
Eric D. Maloney ◽  
Susan C. Heever
Keyword(s):  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Biennial Oscillation

scholarly journals Influence of the Stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on the Madden–Julian Oscillation during Austral Summer

2017 ◽  
Vol 74 (4) ◽  
pp. 1105-1125 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eriko Nishimoto ◽  
Shigeo Yoden
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Horizontal Wind ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Convective Region ◽  
Biennial Oscillation

Abstract Influence of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and its statistical significance are examined for austral summer (DJF) in neutral ENSO events during 1979–2013. The amplitude of the OLR-based MJO index (OMI) is typically larger in the easterly phase of the QBO at 50 hPa (E-QBO phase) than in the westerly (W-QBO) phase. Daily composite analyses are performed by focusing on phase 4 of the OMI, when the active convective system is located over the eastern Indian Ocean through the Maritime Continent. The composite OLR anomaly shows a larger negative value and slower eastward propagation with a prolonged period of active convection in the E-QBO phase than in the W-QBO phase. Statistically significant differences of the MJO activities between the QBO phases also exist with dynamical consistency in the divergence of horizontal wind, the vertical wind, the moisture, the precipitation, and the 100-hPa temperature. A conditional sampling analysis is also performed by focusing on the most active convective region for each day, irrespective of the MJO amplitude and phase. Composite vertical profiles of the conditionally sampled data over the most active convective region reveal lower temperature and static stability around the tropopause in the E-QBO phase than in the W-QBO phase, which indicates more favorable conditions for developing deep convection. This feature is more prominent and extends into lower levels in the upper troposphere over the most active convective region than other tropical regions. Composite longitude–height sections show similar features of the large-scale convective system associated with the MJO, including a vertically propagating Kelvin response.

scholarly journals Subseasonal midlatitude prediction skill following Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and Madden–Julian Oscillation activity

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 247-259
Author(s):  
Kirsten J. Mayer ◽  
Elizabeth A. Barnes
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Rossby Waves ◽  
Prediction Skill ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Environmental Prediction ◽  
Biennial Oscillation

Abstract. The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is known to force extratropical weather days to weeks following an MJO event through excitation of stationary Rossby waves, also referred to as tropical–extratropical teleconnections. Prior research has demonstrated that this tropically forced midlatitude response leads to increased prediction skill on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales. Furthermore, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) has been shown to possibly alter these teleconnections through modulation of the MJO itself and the atmospheric basic state upon which the Rossby waves propagate. This implies that the MJO–QBO relationship may affect midlatitude circulation prediction skill on S2S timescales. In this study, we quantify midlatitude circulation sensitivity and prediction skill following active MJOs and QBOs across the Northern Hemisphere on S2S timescales through an examination of the 500 hPa geopotential height field. First, a comparison of the spatial distribution of Northern Hemisphere sensitivity to the MJO during different QBO phases is performed for European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim reanalysis and ECMWF and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) hindcasts. Secondly, differences in prediction skill in ECMWF and NCEP hindcasts are quantified following MJO–QBO activity. In both hindcast systems, we find that regions across the Pacific, North America, and the Atlantic demonstrate an enhanced MJO impact on prediction skill during strong QBO periods with lead times of 1–4 weeks compared to MJO events during neutral QBO periods.

scholarly journals Subseasonal Midlatitude Prediction Skill Following QBO-MJO Activity

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kirsten J. Mayer ◽  
Elizabeth A. Barnes
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
North America ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Rossby Waves ◽  
Prediction Skill ◽  
Height Field ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Biennial Oscillation

Abstract. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is known to force extratropical weather days-to-weeks following an MJO event through excitation of stationary Rossby waves, tropical-extratropical teleconnections. Prior research has demonstrated that this tropically forced midlatitude response leads to increased prediction skill on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales. Furthermore, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) has been shown to possibly alter these teleconnections through modulation of the MJO itself and the atmospheric basic state upon which the Rossby waves propagate. This implies that the MJO-QBO relationship may affect midlatitude circulation prediction skill on S2S timescales. In this study, we quantify midlatitude circulation sensitivity and prediction skill following active MJOs and QBOs across the Northern Hemisphere on S2S timescales through an examination of the 500 hPa geopotential height field. First, a comparison of the spatial distribution of Northern Hemisphere sensitivity to the MJO during different QBO phases is performed for ERA-Interim reanalysis and ECMWF and NCEP hindcasts. Secondly, differences in prediction skill in ECMWF and NCEP hindcasts are quantified following MJO-QBO activity. We find that regions across the Pacific, North America and the Atlantic exhibit increased prediction skill following MJO-QBO activity, but these regions are not always collocated with the locations most sensitive to the MJO under a particular QBO state. Both hindcast systems demonstrate enhanced prediction skill 7–14 days following active MJO events during strong QBO periods compared to MJO events during neutral QBO periods.

scholarly journals Stratospheric Control of the Madden–Julian Oscillation

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (6) ◽  
pp. 1909-1922 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seok-Woo Son ◽  
Yuna Lim ◽  
Changhyun Yoo ◽  
Harry H. Hendon ◽  
Joowan Kim
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Interannual Variation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Maritime Continent ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Tropospheric Circulation ◽  
Biennial Oscillation

Abstract Interannual variation of seasonal-mean tropical convection over the Indo-Pacific region is primarily controlled by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For example, during El Niño winters, seasonal-mean convection around the Maritime Continent becomes weaker than normal, while that over the central to eastern Pacific is strengthened. Similarly, subseasonal convective activity, which is associated with the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), is influenced by ENSO. The MJO activity tends to extend farther eastward to the date line during El Niño winters and contract toward the western Pacific during La Niña winters. However, the overall level of MJO activity across the Maritime Continent does not change much in response to the ENSO. It is shown that the boreal winter MJO amplitude is closely linked with the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) rather than with ENSO. The MJO activity around the Maritime Continent becomes stronger and more organized during the easterly QBO winters. The QBO-related MJO change explains up to 40% of interannual variation of the boreal winter MJO amplitude. This result suggests that variability of the MJO and the related tropical–extratropical teleconnections can be better understood and predicted by taking not only the tropospheric circulation but also the stratospheric mean state into account. The seasonality of the QBO–MJO link and the possible mechanism are also discussed.

Impact of the quasi-biennial oscillation on predictability of the Madden–Julian oscillation

2016 ◽  
Vol 49 (4) ◽  
pp. 1365-1377 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew G. Marshall ◽  
Harry H. Hendon ◽  
Seok-Woo Son ◽  
Yuna Lim
Keyword(s):  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Biennial Oscillation
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