scholarly journals The Relationship Between Seismic and Aseismic Slip on the Philippine Fault on Leyte Island: Bayesian Modeling of Fault Slip and Geothermal Subsidence

2020 ◽  
Vol 125 (12) ◽  
Author(s):  
John Dale B. Dianala ◽  
Romain Jolivet ◽  
Marion Y. Thomas ◽  
Yo Fukushima ◽  
Barry Parsons ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Modeling ◽  
Fault Slip ◽  
Aseismic Slip ◽  
The Relationship

An Improved Stochastic Modeling for Bayesian Wave Estimation

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Toshio Iseki
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Modeling ◽  
Bayesian Modeling ◽  
Response Functions ◽  
Modeling Procedure ◽  
Wave Parameters ◽  
The Relationship

A modified Bayesian modeling procedure for wave estimation is proposed. In this method, errors in the estimates of ship response functions can be taken into account. In order to discuss the relationship between the minimum ABIC and the accuracy of the estimated wave parameters, the ABIC surfaces and the optimum area of the wave estimation are shown with respect to the two hyperparameters. As a result, the modified Bayesian modeling makes the ABIC surface smoother and can provide stable wave estimation. This concludes that the modified Bayesian modeling is reliable within a certain accuracy to estimate the wave parameters.

A Study on Akaike’s Bayesian Information Criterion in Wave Estimation

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Toshio Iseki
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Modeling ◽  
Bayesian Information Criterion ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Response Functions ◽  
Local Minima ◽  
Normal Response ◽  
Wave Parameters ◽  
Optimum Estimates ◽  
Response Amplitude Operators ◽  
The Relationship

A feasibility study of Bayesian wave estimation was carried out to investigate the relationship between the minimum Akaike’s Bayesian information criterion (ABIC) and the estimated wave parameters. The ship response functions, which were used for the Bayesian wave estimation together with the ship motion cross spectra, were simply modified and compared with the normal response functions in connection with the accuracy of estimated wave parameters. Moreover, the concept of the ABIC surfaces was introduced to investigate the optimum estimates from the stochastic viewpoint and the physical viewpoint. As the result, it was revealed that the minimum ABIC did not always provide the best estimates from the viewpoint of wave estimation and the simply modified response functions could reduce the estimating errors in some cases. The reasons were considered that the estimating error at the sharp peak of response amplitude operators was closely related to existence of the local minima of the ABIC surface and the simply modified response functions had some effects to make the ABIC surface smoother. It is pointed out as the conclusion of this report that any estimating errors of the ship response functions were not considered in the Bayesian modeling.

Likelihood

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Thompson Hobbs ◽  
Mevin B. Hooten
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Bayesian Analysis ◽  
Bayesian Modeling ◽  
Likelihood Function ◽  
Bayesian Framework ◽  
Significant Aspect ◽  
Similarities And Differences ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Bare Bones

This chapter is an overview of likelihood and maximum likelihood. Likelihood forms the fundamental link between models and data in the Bayesian framework. In addition, maximum likelihood is a widely used alternative to Bayesian methods for estimating parameters in ecological models. Though is possible to learn Bayesian modeling with a bare-bones treatment of likelihood, the chapter emphasizes the importance of this concept in Bayesian analysis. A significant aspect of likelihood within the Bayesian framework can be found in the similarities and differences between Bayesian analysis and analysis based on maximum likelihood. In addition, the chapter also considers the relationship between a probability distribution and a likelihood function.

scholarly journals Statistical modelling of co-seismic knickpoint formation and river response to fault slip

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philippe Steer ◽  
Thomas Croissant ◽  
Edwin Baynes ◽  
Dimitri Lague
Keyword(s):  
Scaling Laws ◽  
Statistical Modelling ◽  
Fault Slip ◽  
Tectonic Activity ◽  
Height Distribution ◽  
Aseismic Slip ◽  
Seismic Slip ◽  
Sediment Cover ◽  
River Profiles

Abstract. Most landscape evolution models adopt the paradigm of constant and uniform uplift. It results that the role of fault activity and earthquakes on landscape building is understood under simplistic boundary conditions. Here, we develop a numerical model to investigate river profile development subjected to fault displacement by earthquakes and erosion. The model generates earthquakes, including mainshocks and aftershocks, that respect the classical scaling laws observed for earthquakes. The distribution of seismic and aseismic slip can be partitioned following a spatial distribution of mainshocks along the fault plane. Slope patches, such as knickpoints, induced by fault slip are then migrated at a constant rate upstream a river crossing the fault. A major result is that this new model produces co-seismic knickpoints with a uniform height distribution for a fully coupled fault, i.e. with only co-seismic slip. Increasing aseismic slip at shallow depths, and decreasing shallow seismicity, censors the range magnitude of earthquakes cutting the river towards large magnitudes and leads to less frequent but higher amplitude knickpoints, on average. Inter-knickpoint distance or time between successive knickpoints follows an exponential decay law. Using classical rates for fault slip, 15 mm.yr−1 and knickpoint retreat, 0.1 m.yr−1, leads to high spatial densities of knickpoints requiring sub-metric spatial resolution to distinguish them. The correlation between the topographic profiles of successive parallel rivers cutting the fault remains positive for distance along the fault of less than half the maximum earthquake rupture length. This suggests that river topography can be used for paleo-seismological analysis and to assess fault slip partitioning between aseismic and seismic slip. Yet, considering simple scenarios of fault burial by intermittent sediment cover, driven by climatic changes or linked to earthquake occurrence, leads to knickpoint distributions and river profiles markedly different from the case with no sediment cover. This highlights the potential role of sediments in modulating and potentially altering the expression of tectonic activity in river profiles and surface topography.

Impact of dilatant strengthening and energy dissipation on fault slip stability

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antoine Jacquey ◽  
Manolis Veveakis ◽  
Ruben Juanes
Keyword(s):  
Energy Dissipation ◽  
Fluid Pressure ◽  
Fault Slip ◽  
Numerical Continuation ◽  
Dissipated Energy ◽  
Dynamic Evolution ◽  
Coupling Scheme ◽  
Aseismic Slip ◽  
Stick Slip ◽  
The Stability

<p>The temporal and spatial distribution of fluid pressure and temperature within a fault core are key determinants of the onset and nature (seismic or aseismic) of fault slip. Laboratory and field observations indicate that transient localization of fluid pressure and temperature often go hand in hand with strain localization upon seismic rupture: as slip occurs on a fault plane, temperature increases due to dissipated energy and fluid pressure decreases due to dilatant strengthening. An accurate description of this thermo-hydro-mechanical multiphysics coupling controlling slip mechanisms is therefore essential to characterize the stability of fault slip.</p><p>Here, we present results from analytical and numerical analyses of the stability of fault slip adopting a thermo-hydro-mechanical coupling scheme together with a rate-dependent plasticity formulation. In particular, we focus on the relevance of dilatant strengthening competing with energy dissipation as driving processes for stick-slip events and aseismic slip. We analyze the multiple steady states of the system and their respective stability by means of a numerical continuation technique, and we describe the dynamic evolution of deformation, fluid pressure and temperature fields by considering an associated transient problem.</p><p>The results presented here provide insights into the stability criterion for aseismic slip and the dynamic evolution of slip instability as a function of the physical (thermal and hydraulic) properties of the fault material and the boundary conditions (tectonic stresses and off-fault fluid pressure and temperature conditions). We identify two mechanisms for periodic slip, one driven by elastic loading and the other by multiphysics oscillations. We discuss the implications of these results for characterizing the transition from stable aseismic slip to unstable seismic slip in the context of natural and induced seismicity.</p>

scholarly journals Stabilization of fault slip by fluid injection in the laboratory and in situ

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. eaau4065 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frédéric Cappa ◽  
Marco Maria Scuderi ◽  
Cristiano Collettini ◽  
Yves Guglielmi ◽  
Jean-Philippe Avouac
Keyword(s):  
Fluid Flow ◽  
Fluid Pressure ◽  
Fault Slip ◽  
Fluid Injection ◽  
Aseismic Slip ◽  
Fault Creep ◽  
Frictional Properties

Faults can slip seismically or aseismically depending on their hydromechanical properties, which can be measured in the laboratory. Here, we demonstrate that fault slip induced by fluid injection in a natural fault at the decametric scale is quantitatively consistent with fault slip and frictional properties measured in the laboratory. The increase in fluid pressure first induces accelerating aseismic creep and fault opening. As the fluid pressure increases further, friction becomes mainly rate strengthening, favoring aseismic slip. Our study reveals how coupling between fault slip and fluid flow promotes stable fault creep during fluid injection. Seismicity is most probably triggered indirectly by the fluid injection due to loading of nonpressurized fault patches by aseismic creep.

scholarly journals Hydro-mechanical modeling of seismogenic asperity loaded by aseismic slip through TOUGH-BIEM simulation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hideo Aochi ◽  
Jonny Rutqvist
Keyword(s):  
Pore Pressure ◽  
Injection Rate ◽  
Friction Model ◽  
Fault Slip ◽  
Boundary Integral ◽  
Fluid Volume ◽  
Fault Reactivation ◽  
Pressure Increase ◽  
Aseismic Slip ◽  
Stress Dependent

<p>We consider seismogenic asperities loaded by aseismic slip on a fault, which is induced by fluid circulation, as a simple example of fault reactivation. For this purpose, we combine two methods. The TOUGH2 (Transport Of Unsaturated Ground water and Heat) code is used for modeling the pore pressure evolution within a fault and then a Boundary Integral Equation Method (BIEM) is applied for simulating fault slip, including aseismic slip on the entire fault plane and fast slip on seismogenic asperities. The fault permeability is assumed stress-dependent and therefore is not constant but varies during a simulation. We adopt the Coulomb friction and a cyclic slip-strengthening-then-weakening friction model governing the fault slip, which allows for repeated asperity slip. We were able to demonstrate the entire process from the fluid injection, pore pressure increase, aseismic slip to seismogenic asperity slip. We tested a step-like increase of injection rate with time, which is common for hydraulic fracturing and reservoir stimulation at deep geothermal sites. Under this configuration, the pore pressure increase is not proportional to the injection rate, as the permeability depends on the stress.  Fault slip on seismogenic asperities is triggered repeatedly by surrounding aseismic slip. We find, in a given example, that the reccurence of the fast slip on asperity is approximatively proportional to the injected fluid volume, inferring that the aseismic slip amount increases proporitionally to the fluid volume as well.</p>

scholarly journals Statistical modelling of co-seismic knickpoint formation and river response to fault slip

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 681-706
Author(s):  
Philippe Steer ◽  
Thomas Croissant ◽  
Edwin Baynes ◽  
Dimitri Lague
Keyword(s):  
Landscape Evolution ◽  
Fault Slip ◽  
Tectonic Activity ◽  
Aseismic Slip ◽  
Seismic Slip ◽  
Topographic Data ◽  
Negative Exponential Distribution ◽  
Sediment Cover ◽  
River Profiles

Abstract. Most landscape evolution models adopt the paradigm of constant and uniform uplift. It results that the role of fault activity and earthquakes on landscape building is understood under simplistic boundary conditions. Here, we develop a numerical model to investigate river profile development subjected to fault displacement by earthquakes and erosion. The model generates earthquakes, including mainshocks and aftershocks, that respect the classical scaling laws observed for earthquakes. The distribution of seismic and aseismic slip can be partitioned following a spatial distribution of mainshocks along the fault plane. Slope patches, such as knickpoints, induced by fault slip are then migrated at a constant rate upstream a river crossing the fault. A major result is that this new model predicts a uniform distribution of earthquake magnitude rupturing a river that crosses a fault trace and in turn a negative exponential distribution of knickpoint height for a fully coupled fault, i.e. with only co-seismic slip. Increasing aseismic slip at shallow depths, and decreasing shallow seismicity, censors the magnitude range of earthquakes cutting the river towards large magnitudes and leads to less frequent but higher-amplitude knickpoints, on average. Inter-knickpoint distance or time between successive knickpoints follows an exponential decay law. Using classical rates for fault slip (15 mm year−1) and knickpoint retreat (0.1 m year−1) leads to high spatial densities of knickpoints. We find that knickpoint detectability, relatively to the resolution of topographic data, decreases with river slope that is equal to the ratio between fault slip rate and knickpoint retreat rate. Vertical detectability is only defined by the precision of the topographic data that sets the lower magnitude leading to a discernible offset. Considering a retreat rate with a dependency on knickpoint height leads to the merging of small knickpoints into larger ones and larger than the maximum offset produced by individual earthquakes. Moreover, considering simple scenarios of fault burial by intermittent sediment cover, driven by climatic changes or linked to earthquake occurrence, leads to knickpoint distributions and river profiles markedly different from the case with no sediment cover. This highlights the potential role of sediments in modulating and potentially altering the expression of tectonic activity in river profiles and surface topography. The correlation between the topographic profiles of successive parallel rivers cutting the fault remains positive for distance along the fault of less than half the maximum earthquake rupture length. This suggests that river topography can be used for paleo-seismological analysis and to assess fault slip partitioning between aseismic and seismic slip. Lastly, the developed model can be coupled to more sophisticated landscape evolution models to investigate the role of earthquakes on landscape dynamics.

scholarly journals CULTURE, PERIOD OR STYLE? RECONSIDERATION OF EARLY AND MIDDLE COPPER AGE CHRONOLOGY OF THE GREAT HUNGARIAN PLAIN

Radiocarbon ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-62
Author(s):  
Zsuzsanna Siklósi ◽  
Márton Szilágyi
Keyword(s):  
Mass Spectrometry ◽  
Accelerator Mass Spectrometry ◽  
Bayesian Modeling ◽  
Traditional Culture ◽  
Copper Age ◽  
Historical Approach ◽  
Great Hungarian Plain ◽  
Ams Dating ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Hungarian Plain

ABSTRACT The main goal of our research project was to date the Early and Middle Copper Age (4500/4450–3800 cal BC) of the Great Hungarian Plain more precisely. In our project, we took samples for accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) dating from both settlement features and burials, and the data were analyzed using Bayesian modeling. We examined the Early and Middle Copper Age finds of the Great Hungarian Plain on several levels (site, microregional, and regional levels) using a bottom-up approach. The AMS measurements were supplemented by statistics-based pottery analysis in order to make our understanding of the relationship between the Tiszapolgár and Bodrogkeresztúr cultures more detailed. As a result, we can see a significant, 130 (68.2%) 230 years overlap between the two types of find assemblages, which contradicts to the earlier accepted chronological sequences created by the traditional culture-historical approach. According to the stylistic analyzes, the two ceramic styles are not clearly distinguishable.

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