Modulation of Tropical Cyclone Formation Over the Western North Pacific by the ENSO Combination Mode

2021 ◽  
Vol 48 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinjie Song ◽  
Philip J. Klotzbach ◽  
Yihong Duan ◽  
Xiaoyong Zhuge
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Formation ◽  
Combination Mode

A comparison of tropical cyclone formation over the western North Pacific in August between 1996 and 2014

2022 ◽  
Vol 266 ◽  
pp. 105952
Author(s):  
Xi Cao ◽  
Renguang Wu ◽  
Jing Xu ◽  
Yifeng Dai ◽  
Mingyu Bi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Formation

scholarly journals Predicting Rapid Intensification Events Following Tropical Cyclone Formation in the Western North Pacific Based on ECMWF Ensemble Warm Core Evolutions

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 847
Author(s):  
Russell L. Elsberry ◽  
Hsiao-Chung Tsai ◽  
Wei-Chia Chin ◽  
Timothy P. Marchok
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Rapid Intensification ◽  
Modified Technique ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Formation ◽  
Warm Core ◽  
Peak Intensity ◽  
Cubic Spline Curve

When the environmental conditions over the western North Pacific are favorable for tropical cyclone formation, a rapid intensification event will frequently follow formation. In this extension of our combined three-stage 7-day Weighted Analog Intensity Pacific prediction technique, the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Prediction ensemble predictions of the warm core magnitudes of pre-tropical cyclone circulations are utilized to define the Time-to-Formation (35 knots) and to estimate the Likely Storm Category. If that category is a Typhoon, the bifurcation version of our technique is modified to better predict the peak intensity by selecting only Cluster 1 analog storms with the largest peak intensities that are most likely to have under-gone rapid intensification. A second modification to improve the peak intensity magnitude and timing was to fit a cubic spline curve through the weighted-mean peak intensities of the Cluster 1 analogs. The performance of this modified technique has been evaluated for a sequence of western North Pacific tropical cyclones during 2019 in terms of: (i) Detection time in advance of formation; (ii) Accuracy of Time-to-Formation; (iii) Intensification stage prediction; and (iv) Peak intensity magnitude/timing. This modified technique would provide earlier guidance as to the threat of a Typhoon along the 15-day ensemble storm track forecast, which would be a benefit for risk management officials.

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