scholarly journals Predicting the Interannual Variability of California's Total Annual Precipitation

2021 ◽  
Vol 48 (7) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rui Cheng ◽  
Lenka Novak ◽  
Tapio Schneider
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Total Annual Precipitation

scholarly journals IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE HYDRAULIC MODES OF OPERATION OF SURFACE RUNOFF DRAINAGE SYSTEMS

2020 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 50-57
Author(s):  
V. S. Ignatchik ◽  
◽  
S. Y. Ignatchik ◽  
N. V. Kuznetsova ◽  
A. Y. Fes’kova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Linear Approximation ◽  
Surface Runoff ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Climatic Parameters ◽  
Modes Of Operation ◽  
Total Annual Precipitation ◽  
Rain Gauges ◽  
Drainage Networks ◽  
The Government

Introduction. Based on Resolution of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 782 “On water supply and wastewater disposal plans”, the volume of generated wastewater should be forecast for a period of at least 10 years. Along with this, it is also necessary to assess the hydraulic modes of operation of networks and collectors, specified earlier. However, the existing regulatory literature lacks data on the dynamics of calculated rain intensities and their prospective values. The analysis of the subject area showed that it is possible to determine the climatic parameters of an area, and thus establish the values for the characteristics of calculated rain, based on the data of long-term observations (from 20 years) with one self-recording rain gauge, or with a network of similar rain gauges, with a duration of observations of 5 years or more. A similar network of rain gauges is available in St. Petersburg. It makes it possible to assess the actual values of climatic parameters, but due to the lack of statistical data does not allow for assessing the dynamics of their changes. Therefore, the purpose of this article is to roughly estimate the dynamics of changes in climatic parameters in St. Petersburg and the degree of their impact on the hydraulic modes of operation of surface runoff drainage networks and collectors. Methods. In the course of the study, we analyzed the dynamics of changes in the total annual precipitation H and rain force in St. Petersburg and examined the influence of the dynamics of rain force changes on the operation of surface runoff drainage networks and collectors. Results. At the first stage of the study, we obtained the results of linear approximation of the H data, the calculated values of rain force changes Δ, and the results of linear approximation of the Δ data. The second stage of the study resulted in changes in the hydraulic modes of runoff input during the design period and in 50 years. Conclusion. We experimentally substantiated the possibility to determine the dynamics of rain force changes (at P = 0.33 and with acceptable accuracy) depending on the dynamics of changes in the total annual precipitation. For networks designed and laid 50 years ago, the actual rain force changes will be 9 %. As a result of climate change, water consumption in the calculation periods increased by about 26% with an increase in the total volume of discharged water by 9–10 %.

scholarly journals Effects of record length and resolution on the derived distribution of annual precipitation

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 12987-13018
Author(s):  
C. I. Meier ◽  
J. S. Moraga ◽  
G. Pranzini ◽  
P. Molnar
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Probability Model ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Precipitation Data ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Record Length ◽  
High Return ◽  
Log Normal

Abstract. Traditional frequency analysis of annual precipitation requires the fitting of a probability model to yearly precipitation totals. There are three potential problems with this approach: a long record (at least 25 ~ 30 years) is required in order to fit the model, years with missing data cannot be used, and the data need to be homogeneous. To overcome these limitations, we test an alternative methodology proposed by Eagleson (1978), based on the derived distribution approach (DDA). This allows for better estimation of the probability density function (pdf) of annual rainfall without requiring long records, provided that high-resolution precipitation data are available to derive external storm properties. The DDA combines marginal pdfs for storm depth and inter-arrival time to arrive at an analytical formulation of the distribution of annual precipitation under the assumption of independence between events. We tested the DDA at two temperate locations in different climates (Concepción, Chile, and Lugano, Switzerland), quantifying the effects of record length. Our results show that, as compared to the fitting of a normal or log-normal distribution, the DDA significantly reduces the uncertainty in annual precipitation estimates (especially interannual variability) when only short records are available. The DDA also reduces the bias in annual precipitation quantiles with high return periods. We also show that using precipitation data aggregated every 24 h, as commonly available at most weather stations, introduces a noticeable bias in the DDA. Our results point to the tangible benefits of installing high-resolution (hourly or less) precipitation gauges at previously ungauged locations. We show that the DDA, in combination with high resolution gauging, provides more accurate and less uncertain estimates of long-term precipitation statistics such as interannual variability and quantiles of annual precipitation with high return periods even for records as short as 5 years.

scholarly journals A Multiregion Model Evaluation and Attribution Study of Historical Changes in the Area Affected by Temperature and Precipitation Extremes

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (23) ◽  
pp. 8285-8299 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea J. Dittus ◽  
David J. Karoly ◽  
Sophie C. Lewis ◽  
Lisa V. Alexander ◽  
Markus G. Donat
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Total Annual Precipitation ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Increasing Trends

Abstract The skill of eight climate models in simulating the variability and trends in the observed areal extent of daily temperature and precipitation extremes is evaluated across five large-scale regions, using the climate extremes index (CEI) framework. Focusing on Europe, North America, Asia, Australia, and the Northern Hemisphere, results show that overall the models are generally able to simulate the decadal variability and trends of the observed temperature and precipitation components over the period 1951–2005. Climate models are able to reproduce observed increasing trends in the area experiencing warm maximum and minimum temperature extremes, as well as, to a lesser extent, increasing trends in the areas experiencing an extreme contribution of heavy precipitation to total annual precipitation for the Northern Hemisphere regions. Using simulations performed under different radiative forcing scenarios, the causes of simulated and observed trends are investigated. A clear anthropogenic signal is found in the trends in the maximum and minimum temperature components for all regions. In North America, a strong anthropogenically forced trend in the maximum temperature component is simulated despite no significant trend in the gridded observations, although a trend is detected in a reanalysis product. A distinct anthropogenic influence is also found for trends in the area affected by a much-above-average contribution of heavy precipitation to annual precipitation totals for Europe in a majority of models and to varying degrees in other Northern Hemisphere regions. However, observed trends in the area experiencing extreme total annual precipitation and extreme number of wet and dry days are not reproduced by climate models under any forcing scenario.

scholarly journals INVESTIGATING WATER STORAGE CHANGES IN IRAN USING GRACE AND CHIRPS DATA IN THE GOOGLE EARTH ENGINE SYSTEM

2019 ◽  
Vol XLII-4/W18 ◽  
pp. 981-984
Author(s):  
S. Shami ◽  
Z. Ghorbani
Keyword(s):  
Satellite Data ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Google Earth ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Resources Management ◽  
Total Annual Precipitation ◽  
The World ◽  
Grace Satellite ◽  
Google Earth Engine ◽  
Engine System

Abstract. Water storage in regions with the weather hot and arid or semi-arid such as Iran have many uses. Including these water storage, can be referred to groundwater. Groundwater is one of the sources of sweet waters in the world, and one of the factors is economical and social development. Hence, monitoring its changes in water resources management is of great importance. On the other hand, precipitation is one of the factors directly affecting the water storage level and groundwater level changes. In this study, water storage changes with GRACE satellite data and total annual precipitation with CHIRPS data in the Google Earth Engine system investigated for Iran during 2003–2017. The results obtained from the GRACE satellite data indicate over 10 cm reducing of the water storage levels in Iran during the period between 2008 to 2017. Also, the chart obtained from the CHIRPS data for the total annual precipitation shows that the amount of rainfall since 2008 has decreased in this region.

scholarly journals Describing the interannual variability of precipitation with the derived distribution approach: effects of record length and resolution

2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (10) ◽  
pp. 4177-4190 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudio I. Meier ◽  
Jorge Sebastián Moraga ◽  
Geri Pranzini ◽  
Peter Molnar
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Lognormal Distribution ◽  
Traditional Approach ◽  
Probability Model ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Precipitation Data ◽  
Record Length

Abstract. Interannual variability of precipitation is traditionally described by fitting a probability model to yearly precipitation totals. There are three potential problems with this approach: a long record (at least 25–30 years) is required in order to fit the model, years with missing rainfall data cannot be used, and the data need to be homogeneous, i.e., one has to assume stationarity. To overcome some of these limitations, we test an alternative methodology proposed by Eagleson (1978), based on the derived distribution (DD) approach. It allows estimation of the probability density function (pdf) of annual rainfall without requiring long records, provided that continuously gauged precipitation data are available to derive external storm properties. The DD approach combines marginal pdfs for storm depths and inter-arrival times to obtain an analytical formulation of the distribution of annual precipitation, under the simplifying assumptions of independence between events and independence between storm depth and time to the next storm. Because it is based on information about storms and not on annual totals, the DD can make use of information from years with incomplete data; more importantly, only a few years of rainfall measurements should suffice to estimate the parameters of the marginal pdfs, at least at locations where it rains with some regularity. For two temperate locations in different climates (Concepción, Chile, and Lugano, Switzerland), we randomly resample shortened time series to evaluate in detail the effects of record length on the DD, comparing the results with the traditional approach of fitting a normal (or lognormal) distribution. Then, at the same two stations, we assess the biases introduced in the DD when using daily totalized rainfall, instead of continuously gauged data. Finally, for randomly selected periods between 3 and 15 years in length, we conduct full blind tests at 52 high-quality gauging stations in Switzerland, analyzing the ability of the DD to estimate the long-term standard deviation of annual rainfall, as compared to direct computation from the sample of annual totals. Our results show that, as compared to the fitting of a normal or lognormal distribution (or equivalently, direct estimation of the sample moments), the DD approach reduces the uncertainty in annual precipitation estimates (especially interannual variability) when only short records (below 6–8 years) are available. In such cases, it also reduces the bias in annual precipitation quantiles with high return periods. We demonstrate that using precipitation data aggregated every 24 h, as commonly available at most weather stations, introduces a noticeable bias in the DD. These results point to the tangible benefits of installing high-resolution (hourly, at least) precipitation gauges, next to the customary, manual rain-measuring instrument, at previously ungauged locations. We propose that the DD approach is a suitable tool for the statistical description and study of annual rainfall, not only when short records are available, but also when dealing with nonstationary time series of precipitation. Finally, to avert any misinterpretation of the presented method, we should like to emphasize that it only applies for climatic analyses of annual precipitation totals; even though storm data are used, there is no relation to the study of extreme rainfall intensities needed for engineering design.

scholarly journals Dynamics of the status of groundwater in the Polish Lowland: the River Gwda catchment example

Geologos ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 193-204
Author(s):  
Izabela Jamorska ◽  
Katarzyna Kubiak-Wójcicka ◽  
Arkadiusz Krawiec
Keyword(s):  
Groundwater Level ◽  
Catchment Area ◽  
Meteorological Parameters ◽  
Groundwater Table ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Observation Well ◽  
Total Annual Precipitation ◽  
Drainage Zone ◽  
The Status ◽  
Low Precipitation

Abstract The aim of the present study is to monitor changes in the location of the groundwater table in the catchment area of the River Gwda within the Quaternary and Neogene water-bearing level over a 35-year period, between 1981 and 2015. In addition, on account of very diverse total annual precipitation levels in particular parts of the catchment, attempts were made to determine the influence of precipitation on the location of the groundwater table. By correlating groundwater level and meteorological parameters (precipitation), it was discovered that precipitation in the previous year made the largest impact on the groundwater table. Moreover, low precipitation totals in the southern part of the catchment are not discernible in groundwater table fluctuations, which is linked to the location of the observation well within the drainage zone as well as to water ascension from deeper aquifers.

Proportion and distribution of rain and snow in China from 1960 to 2018

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Pressure ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Annual Number ◽  
Upward Trend ◽  
Total Annual Precipitation ◽  
Change Dynamics ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Northwestern Region ◽  
Average Annual Number

Abstract Rainfall and snowfall have different effects on energy balance calculations and land-air interactions in terrestrial models. The identification of precipitation types is crucial to understand climate change dynamics and the utilization of water resources. However, information regarding precipitation types is not generally available. The precipitation obtained from meteorological stations across China recorded types only before 1979. This study parameterized precipitation types with air temperature, relative humidity and atmospheric pressure from 1960 to 1979, and then identified precipitation types after 1980. Results show that the main type of precipitation in China was rainfall, and the average annual rainfall days (amounts) across China accounted for 83.08% (92.55%) of the total annual precipitation days (amounts). The average annual snowfall days (amounts) in the northwestern region accounted for 32.27% (19.31%) of the total annual precipitation days (amounts), which is considerably higher than the national average. The average annual number of rainfall and snowfall days both displayed a downward trend while the average annual amounts of these two precipitation types showed an upward trend, but without significance at 0.1 levels. The annual number of rainfall and snowfall days in the southwestern region decreased significantly (-2.27 d/decade and -0.31 d/decade, p < 0.01). The annual rainfall amounts in the Jianghuai region increased significantly (40.70 mm/decade, p < 0.01), and the areas with the most significant increase in snowfall amounts were the northwestern (3.64 mm/decade, p < 0.01). These results can inform our understanding of the distribution and variation of precipitation with different types in China.

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