scholarly journals Sensitivity of Tropical Extreme Precipitation to Surface Warming in Aquaplanet Experiments Using a Global Nonhydrostatic Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 48 (9) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alejandro Uribe ◽  
Jessica Vial ◽  
Thorsten Mauritsen
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
Nonhydrostatic Model

Dynamically Downscaled Climate Change Projections for the South Asian Monsoon: Mean and Extreme Precipitation Changes and Physics Parameterization Impacts

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (6) ◽  
pp. 2311-2331 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yiling Huo ◽  
W. Richard Peltier
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
South Asia ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Asian Monsoon ◽  
South Asian Monsoon ◽  
The South ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
Projected Change ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe extreme concentration of population over South Asia makes it critical to accurately understand the global warming impact on the South Asian monsoon (SAM), but the complex orography of the region makes future projections of monsoon intensity technically challenging. Here we describe a series of climate projections constructed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model for South Asia to dynamically downscale a global warming simulation constructed using the Community Earth System Model under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. A physics-based miniensemble is employed to investigate the sensitivity of the projected change of the SAM to the implementation of different parameterization schemes in WRF. We analyze not only the changes in mean seasonal precipitation but also the impact of the warming process on precipitation extremes. All projections are characterized by a consistent increase in average monsoon precipitation and a fattening of the tail of the daily rainfall distribution (more than a 50% decrease in the return periods of 50-yr extreme rainfall events by the end of the twenty-first century). Further analysis based on one of the WRF physics ensemble members shows that both the average rainfall intensity changes and the extreme precipitation increases are projected to be slightly larger than expectations based upon the Clausius–Clapeyron thermodynamic reference of 7% °C−1 of surface warming in most parts of India. This further increase can be primarily explained by the fact that the surface warming is projected to be smaller than the warming in the midtroposphere, where a significant portion of rain originates, and dynamical effects play only a secondary role.

Assessment of changes in extreme precipitation affecting the degree of soil erosion in crop rotation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
V.V. Ilinich ◽  
◽  
A.A. Naumova
Keyword(s):  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Crop Rotation ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Crop Rotations

the presented research is dedicate to confirming the hypothesis about increase in extreme precipitation of recent decades, affecting the degree of soil erosion in crop rotations.

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