Poleward Shift of Atmospheric Rivers in the Southern Hemisphere in Recent Decades

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (21) ◽  
Author(s):  
Weiming Ma ◽  
Gang Chen ◽  
Bin Guan
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Atmospheric Rivers ◽  
Poleward Shift

Simulation of Present-Day and Twenty-First-Century Energy Budgets of the Southern Oceans

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 440-454 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin E. Trenberth ◽  
John T. Fasullo
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Cloud Cover ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
Energy Budgets ◽  
Poleward Shift ◽  
Projected Changes

Abstract The energy budget of the modern-day Southern Hemisphere is poorly simulated in both state-of-the-art reanalyses and coupled global climate models. The ocean-dominated Southern Hemisphere has low surface reflectivity and therefore its albedo is particularly sensitive to cloud cover. In modern-day climates, mainly because of systematic deficiencies in cloud and albedo at mid- and high latitudes, too much solar radiation enters the ocean. Along with too little radiation absorbed at lower latitudes because of clouds that are too bright, unrealistically weak poleward transports of energy by both the ocean and atmosphere are generally simulated in the Southern Hemisphere. This implies too little baroclinic eddy development and deficient activity in storm tracks. However, projections into the future by coupled climate models indicate that the Southern Ocean features a robust and unique increase in albedo, related to clouds, in association with an intensification and poleward shift in storm tracks that is not observed at any other latitude. Such an increase in cloud may be untenable in nature, as it is likely precluded by the present-day ubiquitous cloud cover that models fail to capture. There is also a remarkably strong relationship between the projected changes in clouds and the simulated current-day cloud errors. The model equilibrium climate sensitivity is also significantly negatively correlated with the Southern Hemisphere energy errors, and only the more sensitive models are in the range of observations. As a result, questions loom large about how the Southern Hemisphere will actually change as global warming progresses, and a better simulation of the modern-day climate is an essential first step.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of the southern hemisphere tropospheric jet response to Antarctic ozone depletion: prescribed versus interactive chemistry

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sabine Haase ◽  
Jaika Fricke ◽  
Tim Kruschke ◽  
Sebastian Wahl ◽  
Katja Matthes
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Ozone Depletion ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Jet Stream ◽  
Heating Rates ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Poleward Shift

Abstract. Southern hemisphere lower stratospheric ozone depletion has been shown to lead to a poleward shift of the tropospheric jet stream during austral summer, influencing surface atmosphere and ocean conditions, such as surface temperatures and sea ice extent. The characteristics of stratospheric and tropospheric responses to ozone depletion, however, differ largely among climate models depending on the representation of ozone in the models. The most accurate way to represent ozone in a model is to calculate it interactively. However, due to computational costs, in particular for long-term coupled ocean-atmosphere model integrations, the more common way is to prescribe ozone from observations or calculated model fields. Here, we investigate the difference between an interactive and a specified chemistry version of the same atmospheric model in a fully-coupled setup using a 9-member chemistry-climate model ensemble. In the specified chemistry version of the model the ozone fields are prescribed using the output from the interactive chemistry model version. In contrast to earlier studies, we use daily-resolved ozone fields in the specified chemistry simulations to achieve a better comparability between the ozone forcing with and without interactive chemistry. We find that although the short-wave heating rate trend in response to ozone depletion is the same in the different chemistry settings, the interactive chemistry ensemble shows a stronger trend in polar cap stratospheric temperatures (by about 0.7 K per decade) and circumpolar stratospheric zonal mean zonal winds (by about 1.6 m/s per decade) as compared to the specified chemistry ensemble. This difference between interactive and specified chemistry in the stratospheric response to ozone depletion also affects the tropospheric response, namely the poleward shift of the tropospheric jet stream. We attribute part of these differences to the missing representation of feedbacks between chemistry and dynamics in the specified chemistry ensemble, which affect the dynamical heating rates, and part of it to the lack of spatial asymmetries in the prescribed ozone fields. This effect is investigated using a sensitivity ensemble that was forced by a three-dimensional instead of a two–dimensional ozone field. This study emphasizes the value of interactive chemistry for the representation of the southern hemisphere tropospheric jet response to ozone depletion and infers that for periods with strong ozone variability (trends) the details of the ozone forcing can be crucial for representing southern hemispheric climate variability.

scholarly journals Aerial map demonstrates erosional patterns and changing topography at Isimila, Tanzania

2019 ◽  
Vol 115 (7/8) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kersten Bergstrom ◽  
Austin B. Lawrence ◽  
Alex J. Pelissero ◽  
Lauren J. Hammond ◽  
Eliwasa Maro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Threshold Temperature ◽  
Southwest Indian Ocean ◽  
Local Newspapers ◽  
Arrival Dates ◽  
First Arrival ◽  
Phenological Shifts ◽  
Poleward Shift ◽  
Phenological Records ◽  
Phenological Shift

Phenological shifts represent one of the most robust bioindicators of climate change. While considerable multidecadal records of plant and animal phenology exist for the northern hemisphere, few noteworthy records are available for the southern hemisphere. We present one of the first phenological records of fish migration for the southern hemisphere, and one of the only phenological records for the southwest Indian Ocean. The so-called ‘sardine run’ – an annual winter migration of sardines, northeast of their summer spawning grounds on the Agulhas Bank off the coast of Durban, South Africa – has been well documented in local newspapers given the importance placed on fishing and fishing-tourism in the region. An analysis of the first arrival dates of sardines reveals a 1.3 day per decade delay over the period 1946–2012. Although this phenological shift reveals a poor association with sea surface temperatures (SST), it coincides with a poleward shift in the position of the 21 °C mean annual SST isotherm – the threshold temperature for sardine populations. The timing of sardine arrivals near Durban corresponds closely with the number of mid-latitude cyclones passing over the Durban coastline during the months of April and May. The strength of the run is strongly associated with ENSO conditions. The complex suite of factors associated with this phenological shift poses challenges in accurately modelling the future trajectory for this migratory event.

scholarly journals A Dynamical Perspective on Atmospheric Temperature Variability and Its Response to Climate Change

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (6) ◽  
pp. 1707-1724 ◽  
Author(s):  
Talia Tamarin-Brodsky ◽  
Kevin Hodges ◽  
Brian J. Hoskins ◽  
Theodore G. Shepherd
Keyword(s):  
Temperature Distribution ◽  
Spatial Structure ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Atmospheric Temperature ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Temperature Anomalies ◽  
Poleward Shift ◽  
Meridional Advection

Abstract The atmospheric temperature distribution is typically described by its mean and variance, while higher-order moments, such as skewness, have received less attention. Skewness is a measure of the asymmetry between the positive and negative tails of the distribution, which has implications for extremes. It was recently shown that near-surface temperature in the Southern Hemisphere is positively skewed on the poleward side of the storm tracks and negatively skewed on the equatorward side. Here we take a dynamical approach to further study what controls the spatial structure of the near-surface temperature distribution in this region. We employ a tracking algorithm to study the formation, intensity, and movement of warm and cold temperature anomalies. We show that warm anomalies are generated on the equatorward side of the storm tracks and propagate poleward, while cold anomalies are generated on the poleward side and propagate equatorward. We further show that while the perturbation growth is mainly achieved through linear meridional advection, it is the nonlinear meridional advection that is responsible for the meridional movement of the temperature anomalies and therefore to the differential skewness. The projected poleward shift and increase of the temperature variance maximum in the Southern Hemisphere under global warming is shown to be composed of a poleward shift and increase in the maximum intensity of both warm and cold anomalies, and a decrease in their meridional displacements. An analytic expression is derived for the nonlinear meridional temperature tendency, which captures the spatial structure of the skewness and its projected changes.

scholarly journals The ozone hole indirect effect: Cloud-radiative anomalies accompanying the poleward shift of the eddy-driven jet in the Southern Hemisphere

2013 ◽  
Vol 40 (14) ◽  
pp. 3688-3692 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin M. Grise ◽  
Lorenzo M. Polvani ◽  
George Tselioudis ◽  
Yutian Wu ◽  
Mark D. Zelinka
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Indirect Effect ◽  
Ozone Hole ◽  
Poleward Shift

scholarly journals Storm Tracks and Climate Change

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (15) ◽  
pp. 3518-3543 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lennart Bengtsson ◽  
Kevin I. Hodges ◽  
Erich Roeckner
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Eastern Pacific ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Atlantic Sector ◽  
Poleward Shift

Abstract Extratropical and tropical transient storm tracks are investigated from the perspective of feature tracking in the ECHAM5 coupled climate model for the current and a future climate scenario. The atmosphere-only part of the model, forced by observed boundary conditions, produces results that agree well with analyses from the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40), including the distribution of storms as a function of maximum intensity. This provides the authors with confidence in the use of the model for the climate change experiments. The statistical distribution of storm intensities is virtually preserved under climate change using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario until the end of this century. There are no indications in this study of more intense storms in the future climate, either in the Tropics or extratropics, but rather a minor reduction in the number of weaker storms. However, significant changes occur on a regional basis in the location and intensity of storm tracks. There is a clear poleward shift in the Southern Hemisphere with consequences of reduced precipitation for several areas, including southern Australia. Changes in the Northern Hemisphere are less distinct, but there are also indications of a poleward shift, a weakening of the Mediterranean storm track, and a strengthening of the storm track north of the British Isles. The tropical storm tracks undergo considerable changes including a weakening in the Atlantic sector and a strengthening and equatorward shift in the eastern Pacific. It is suggested that some of the changes, in particular the tropical ones, are due to an SST warming maximum in the eastern Pacific. The shift in the extratropical storm tracks is shown to be associated with changes in the zonal SST gradient in particular for the Southern Hemisphere.

scholarly journals Poleward shift in the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds synchronous with the deglacial rise in CO2

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
William Gray ◽  
Casimir de Lavergne ◽  
Robert Wills ◽  
Laurie Menviel ◽  
Paul Spence ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Westerly Winds ◽  
Poleward Shift ◽  
Southern Hemisphere Westerly Winds

scholarly journals Poleward shift in the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds synchronous with the deglacial rise in CO2

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
William Gray ◽  
Casimir deLavergne ◽  
Robert Wills ◽  
Laurie Menviel ◽  
Paul Spence ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Westerly Winds ◽  
Poleward Shift ◽  
Southern Hemisphere Westerly Winds

Atmospheric rivers landfalling at the Antarctic Peninsula: the Year of Polar Prediction summer special observing period measurements for model and forecast improvement 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Irina Gorodetskaya ◽  
Penny Rowe ◽  
Heike Kalesse ◽  
Patric Seifert ◽  
Sang-Jong Park ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Antarctic Peninsula ◽  
Moisture Transport ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Atmospheric Rivers ◽  
Surface Melt ◽  
The Antarctic

<p>During the last several decades, the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) has shown a much stronger warming trend compared to the rest of the ice sheet and other land areas in the Southern Hemisphere (Jones et al, 2019). Recent studies have also highlighted that the AP has experienced both an increase in precipitation and in surface melt. Atmospheric rivers (ARs) – long corridors of intense moisture transport from subtropical and mid-latitude regions poleward - are known for prominent role in moisture transport (Gorodetskaya et al, 2020) and intense precipitation in Antarctica (Gorodetskaya et al 2014). At the same time, ARs have been also associated with major surface melt events at the AP and adjacent ice shelves (Wille et al 2019). In this study, we explore the double role of ARs, as carriers of both heat and moisture, in their impacts on precipitation (rain and snow), cloud radiative forcing and air temperature at the AP. Observations from the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP, Bromwich et al 2020) endorsed sites/projects are used: Escudero station (the Characterization of the Antarctic Atmosphere and Low Clouds, or CAALC project) and King Sejong station (South Korean Antarctic Program projects) on King George Island, as well as Punta Arenas (southern Chile; the Dynamics, Aerosol, Cloud, And Precipitation Observations in the Pristine Environment of the Southern Ocean, or DACAPO-PESO project). These projects employed a set of ground-based remote sensing instrumentation for water vapor, cloud and precipitation observations, as well as frequent radiosonde launches during the YOPP Special Observing Period in austral summer 2018/2019. We present case studies characterizing the temporal evolution of ARs, focusing on thermodynamic and dynamic conditions accompanying the transition between snowfall and rain. Further, we demonstrate the added value of assimilating more frequent radiosonde observations in improving the forecast of weather conditions during ARs using the Polar-WRF model, including wind and precipitation prediction, which have important consequences for air, ship and station operations in Antarctica.</p><p>Bromwich, D. H., K. Werner, B. Casati, J. G. Powers, I. V. Gorodetskaya, F. Massonnet, V. Vitale, et al: The Year of Polar Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere (YOPP-SH), Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0255.1.</p><p>Gorodetskaya, I.V., Silva, T., Schmithüsen, H., and Hirasawa, N., 2020: Atmospheric River Signatures in Radiosonde Profiles and Reanalyses at the Dronning Maud Land Coast, East Antarctica.Adv. Atmos. Sci., https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-020-9221-8</p><p>Gorodetskaya, I. V., M. Tsukernik, K. Claes, M. F. Ralph, W. D. Neff, and N. P. M. van Lipzig, 2014: The role of atmospheric rivers in anomalous snow accumulation in East Antarctica. Geophys. Res. Lett.,  https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060881</p><p>Jones, M. E., Bromwich, D. H., Nicolas, J. P., Carrasco, J., Plavcova, E., Zou, X., & Wang, A. S.-H. (2019). Sixty Years of Widespread Warming in the Southern Middle and High Latitudes (1957-2016). J. Climate, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18</p><p>Wille, J.D., Favier, V., Dufour, A., Gorodetskaya, I.V., Turner, J., Agosta, C., and Codron, F., 2019. West Antarctic surface melt triggered by atmospheric rivers. Nat. Geosci. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0460-1</p>

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